Tyler Penland Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 I've been trying to catch the viaduct with clear skies and covered trees since I moved up here. Finally got it today. Around 8-10" on the ground from there to Rough Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It's ripping on the Biltmore estates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It's ripping in Haywood. Solid white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 About 1.25" of new snowfall so far this evening. And the thermometer just tick down to 13.9°...burning some propane tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Hope the power is back on when I get home. Been out since 4 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Got down to 11 degrees. Pretty cold this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Now that the storm is over, recapping the days leading up to this storm is interesting. UK, NAVGEM, CMC, and NAM once in range really did well with this storm. GFS and Euro absolutely sucked. If it wasn't already decided before, the euro has been dethroned as king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 So, what were some totals from the NWFS portion of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: So, what were some totals from the NWFS portion of the event? I only got about an inch. It was way too windy though for accurate accumulations. The wind was blowing 90 all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Now that the storm is over, recapping the days leading up to this storm is interesting. UK, NAVGEM, CMC, and NAM once in range really did well with this storm. GFS and Euro absolutely sucked. If it wasn't already decided before, the euro has been dethroned as king. Yeah I can remember people in the main board say too juiced, biased, not going to happen, all by themselves. If anything they where not juiced enough and way outperformed the GFS and EURO by a ton. I think a lot has to be learned about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I think that a lesson to be learned, is that climo wins, most of the time. For days, all that was said, was how unlikely it was for significant moisture to make it this far west. I realize that models are models and they are tools to help, but sometimes, you just have to assume that these storms have a shot at doing exactly what they do 90% of time; go further west than what’s depicted and sock the western end of the state. With that being said, I’ll doubt any model depicting a foot of snow in Raleigh and Virginia Beach 3-Days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I think that a lesson to be learned, is that climo wins, most of the time. For days, all that was said, was how unlikely it was for significant moisture to make it this far west. I realize that models are models and they are tools to help, but sometimes, you just have to assume that these storms have a shot at doing exactly what they do 90% of time; go further west than what’s depicted and sock the western end of the state. With that being said, I’ll doubt any model depicting a foot of snow in Raleigh and Virginia Beach 3-Days out. Yep climo mostly wins out and we are in the prime spot. Not too take anything away from others but we do usually jackpot in these scenarios. Shoot even I was skeptical but after Ward started posting the consistency of the Navgem I was starting to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 32 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I only got about an inch. It was way too windy though for accurate accumulations. The wind was blowing 90 all night. Just by seeing it fall I might have had 2 inches. Only needed a little over an inch to reach a foot for a grand total so that's what I'm going with. This was a great storm and hope it was just the start of a great winter. Partly Cloudy Temp - 15.7/ Low 14.2 Wind - 17/G23 Wind Chill - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 54 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I only got about an inch. It was way too windy though for accurate accumulations. The wind was blowing 90 all night. It really was. I had 1.25" on my board last night but even on the protected side of the mountain the wind was blowing too much to really trust that measurement. What a weekend though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Just by seeing it fall I might have had 2 inches. Only needed a little over an inch to reach a foot for a grand total so that's what I'm going with. This was a great storm and hope it was just the start of a great winter. Partly Cloudy Temp - 15.7/ Low 14.2 Wind - 17/G23 Wind Chill - 0 23 minutes ago, Buckethead said: It really was. I had 1.25" on my board last night but even on the protected side of the mountain the wind was blowing too much to really trust that measurement. What a weekend though! Yeah guys as the both of yall said the wind was ferocious! I mean talk about spurts of ground blizzard conditions with blowing snow. It was a beautiful sight though. shoot anytime it snows it is a beautiful sight. And yes I hope this means we will get more storms and much more snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 So this is my rating for this storm on a scale from 1-10. Surprise storm was a 10 especially with how poorly the long range models caught up to this especially only after the short range models had already nailed this down basically. Snowfall rate was an 8 for me. It was not the most impressive but it snowed for over 24 hours straight at a pretty good clip. Snow density was a 10. We always get our best snows right around 30 degrees. This snowfall was perfect for snowman making and playing with the kids. IT was heavy, dense and easy to compact. Total weekend accumulations was at 13.5 inches total which puts this in the top 10 storms for me and it is even better because this happened in early December and was a huge surprise. All in all I give this storm an 8 out of a 10. It was a treat to be apart of and it was a beautiful storm that just hung on every single branch on trees. Those storms are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Some awesome photos guys! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 19 hours ago, strongwxnc said: Dude, that's a sweet photo! . Thank you man for this comment. I try to post as much as I can without trying to rub it into people's faces. To me I like to share the experience with everyone especially those who do not get to see this type of weather a lot. This was a wonderful storm for several folks on the board and I could not be more happy for them. As for my pics. The mountains of NC are a truly special place to live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yep climo mostly wins out and we are in the prime spot. Not too take anything away from others but we do usually jackpot in these scenarios. Shoot even I was skeptical but after Ward started posting the consistency of the Navgem I was starting to believe. My professors harped on looking for consistency from run to run to tell how well a model is handling a situation. The NAVGEM may not be the best model, but it has to be given some weight when it is that consistent and other are waving as they did. I understand the NWS not buying the early trends of the NAM, but they were consistent 36 hrs out and after the 18z run Tuesday evening, models really began to latch on to an expanded precip field to the NW. Ukie and NAVGEM had shown long range support for what the NAM was portraying, but because the Operational GFS and Operational Euro weren't showing the sharper look, these trends weren't given the weight they should have been. The GEFS and the EPS both showed this type of solution as a possibility on several runs with several members. I think this has been a good learning experience, I know that I have learned a ton! Looking forward though, Tuesday morning a love of energy from the Alberta Clipper moving over the NE looks to swing through WNC and I bet we see another 1"-3" for the border counties Starting Tuesday morning and lasting through the day. We haven't seen a pattern like this in a while, but this looks great for the ski areas! They should be able to make a base large enough to sustain them through the winter over the next week imo. Thursday evening into Friday also looks interesting! Snow showers look to be possible around Downtown Asheville and valleys north of I-40 onTuesday and Thursday into Friday is a wildcard so this should be a fun, but cold week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I recall the NAM around 24-36 hours out showing virtually zero accumulations for all of NC for several runs. I would honestly only put it slightly above the euro and gfs for this storm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 So looking at the Tuesday event as Ward said it looks like a decent shot at 1-3 inches across the boarder counties. Its going to be another wind whipped snow though as last night was oh and it's going to be colder too. Look for dangerous wind chills and blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Joe Bastards keeps harping on a cold east Christmas week. The GFS has not got the memo yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I recall the NAM around 24-36 hours out showing virtually zero accumulations for all of NC for several runs. I would honestly only put it slightly above the euro and gfs for this storm imo.NAM showed the northwestern expansion of precip before the GFS and Euro picked up on it and was the first to show consistent back to back runs with accumulation around WNC. It lost the look for two runs on Tuesday, push the trough out to sea more... but then came back with the sharper look and held on to it, progressively getting stronger. For Asheville, the NAM was the first model to pick up on the chance for decent accumulation, and was the first to show the possibility for 6"+ on the NC/SC border. I don't think any model besides the UK and NAVGEM deserve to be praised after this event. But the NAM sniffed out the snowfall all across the SE, and imo outperform the GFS & Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 hours ago, ncjoaquin said: Joe Bastards keeps harping on a cold east Christmas week. The GFS has not got the memo yet. I believe the GFS today had a storm at 384 which would be 12/26 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I believe the GFS today had a storm at 384 which would be 12/26 I think Aaah. I didn't see that. It would be nice to have a cold Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Still some uncertainty regarding Friday as well as some in the main thread mentioned. I got to looking through the EPS member and found two with a look like what the Ukie has shown(actually even an inland track compared to Ukie). Could be interesting, and I am thinking that we are seeing some volatility among EPS and GEFS member that should be noted. Not saying it will happen, but right now we sit on the very cold side of things as it looks and things have trended towards more warm and moist as we approach so it's noteworthy. Check it out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, Hvward said: Still some uncertainty regarding Friday as well as some in the main thread mentioned. I got to looking through the EPS member and found two with a look like what the Ukie has shown(actually even an inland track compared to Ukie). Could be interesting, and I am thinking that we are seeing some volatility among EPS and GEFS member that should be noted. Not saying it will happen, but right now we sit on the very cold side of things as it looks and things have trended towards more warm and moist as we approach so it's noteworthy. Check it out.. I've been wondering too about that time frame. Considering the difference among the operational models. Are some similarities with this past system Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 One last pic of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Grandfather Mountain Sunday Courtesy Grandfather Mountain Stewardship Foundation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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