franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 IGefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If I was up in the hills still, I would be pretty happy with this disco from GSP! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time (uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the evening and especially with the overnight forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: IGefs I’m stunned. Amazing agreement. This is going to catch a few off guard! Boyer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: I’m stunned. Amazing agreement. This is going to catch a few off guard! Boyer... What are your thoughts with the trajectory of the precipitation for the northern mountains? I know the southern mountains will cash in great with this storm but others have mentioned the trajectory of the moisture could be problematic for us further north. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NC_WX10 said: What are your thoughts with the trajectory of the precipitation for the northern mountains? I know the southern mountains will cash in great with this storm but others have mentioned the trajectory of the moisture could be problematic for us further north. thanks The overall system will favor a southwest fetch of moisture. So I do expect northern mountains to see much less than southern areas. You’ll have to wait for upslope snows Saturday night for better accumulations. Make no mistake though, all mountain areas should see snow by Saturday evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: The overall system will favor a southwest fetch of moisture. So I do expect northern mountains to see much less than southern areas. You’ll have to wait for upslope snows Saturday night for better accumulations. Make no mistake though, all mountain areas should see snow by Saturday evening! Okay thanks for the information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Radar presentation looks odd right now. Moisture gathering to the south, but the trajectory doesn’t seem to favor us. How much of this is supposed to just fill in tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: I’m stunned. Amazing agreement. This is going to catch a few off guard! Boyer... Rgem is moist too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 If this pans out there are going to be some very upset people. Most ppl I have told dont even think it will snow at all based on local mets and phone apps.. Robert thinks power outages could be possible in WNC. 6 to 8 for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 First time for everything. After several days and even more so the latest model runs, everyone of them from Global,short range hi res, to ensembles painting 3 to 4 plus inches of snow across my county/ Triad. I'm very suprised to be seeing nothing advisory,watch or warning mentioned by the NWS. Just a HWO. I get the conservative approach with the BL issues and if honest would be hedging in that direction. Just thought it was interesting seeing what I've seen and less than 12 to 15 hours from start time, the NWS takes a pass on an advisory. Yes asphalt and ground are warm. But rates will trump a warm ground anytime anywhere. And .5 plus qpf if wet snow will get you the rates to whiten things up. Not arguing,calling out etc. Just suprised by their aporoach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This reminds me of several surprised snowfalls we have seen in the past. It will be interesting watching this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 SREF mean doubled to right at 4" for Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: SREF mean doubled to right at 4" for Boone. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Elevation will help big time for this one like usual but im debating driving up tomorrow. I think back home is in a better spot than Danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Still not buying the precip being that abundant here in the High Country. Thinking we might eek out an inch or two here in Boone. Latest NAM seems to have adjusted southward some. Still hoping for more but not getting my hopes high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Anyone have any thoughts on the school situation in WNC? Seems the main show won't get started in the AM. Could be a bad situation if people aren't prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Yea the NAM wasn't a move in the right direction. Maybe the gfs, euro etc. will hold serve or counter the NAM with a move nw. Nowcasting at this point. Read something the other day about the atmospheric set-up being really good for the mtns, and that the models might be undergoing some of the extent of the precipitation on the west side. Maybe that's still in the school of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Anyone have any thoughts on the school situation in WNC? Seems the main show won't get started in the AM. Could be a bad situation if people aren't prepared. Counties will begin to make the call shortly after 4am. Most buses start up between 4:50-5:30am. Therefore, If calling school, most counties need to jump on it soon. This is a wake and check the radar kind of morning versus a how are the road look, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 57 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: SREF mean doubled to right at 4" for Boone. Tyler I'm heading up to Boone in the a.m., through Sunday a.m. What time you think precip starts up that way and how good of job do they do with 421. Not big on riding 3 miles downhill on ice. Going uphill no biggie, 4wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GSP just issued Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains..1"-3" above 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: GSP just issued Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains..1"-3" above 1500' That is about as reasonable as you can get in this type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Tyler I'm heading up to Boone in the a.m., through Sunday a.m. What time you think precip starts up that way and how good of job do they do with 421. Not big on riding 3 miles downhill on ice. Going uphill no biggie, 4wdHopefully around 9 or so. They do fantastic with the roads up here. I honestly don't see the main roads being problematic until overnight Saturday and they'll be good by Sunday morning. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Another good run of the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Another good run of the rgem.It's the best looking model for MBY (and ashe's). I believe I'll ride that one into the ground. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: It's the best looking model for MBY (and ashe's). I believe I'll ride that one into the ground. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Did you see the gfs ensemble mean? I think it was 1"qpf for all the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Counties will begin to make the call shortly after 4am. Most buses start up between 4:50-5:30am. Therefore, If calling school, most counties need to jump on it soon. This is a wake and check the radar kind of morning versus a how are the road look, IMO. Thanks for the insight. Yeah, definitely a radar situation. I just hope most schools have enough sense to call it off when something is clearly coming our way. EDIT: Glad to see the NWS make a call. Should hopefully raise awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Did you see the gfs ensemble mean? I think it was 1"qpf for all the mountains. What about Cherokee, Clay and Graham..?They seem to be left out on all the previous model runs.. mostly 1 inch or less of snow..what's the ensemble mean showing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: What about Cherokee, Clay and Graham..?They seem to be left out on all the previous model runs.. mostly 1 inch or less of snow..what's the ensemble mean showing now? Hasn't come out yet for 0z. The 18z was a winter storm for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The GFS looks good for most of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GfS looks great for yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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