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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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Lol GFS and its silly snow hole over Buncombe Co.  Remember it tried so hard to resolve that during January's storm last year, and in the end it was wrong, of course.  Downtown Asheville won't see as much as Hendersonville, but don't worry about that snow hole its showing.  Poor GFS, Bless its heart.

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4 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Lol GFS and its silly snow hole over Buncombe Co.  Remember it tried so hard to resolve that during January's storm last year, and in the end it was wrong, of course.  Downtown Asheville won't see as much as Hendersonville, but don't worry about that snow hole its showing.  Poor GFS, Bless its heart.

Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill.

You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county!

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5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill.

You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county!

Tracker! What is your input bud? It's always a pleasure when you stop by. Yeah Haywood and the southern facing mountains cash in well with these set ups. This is one interesting setup to say the least. It's always good to set back and let things play out either way.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Tracker! What is your input bud? It's always a pleasure when you stop by. Yeah Haywood and the southern facing mountains cash in well with these set ups. This is one interesting setup to say the least. It's always good to set back and let things play out either way.

Hey hey!  Yea I thought I would stop by, see what's happening around here with the first real snow event of the season.

Tell you what, models seem to suggest a strung out low (rather than a classic condensed Miller A).  This is what is limiting the NW side of the precip (and thus a sharp cut-off).  I note that a NW trend to the frontogenesis seems to be in play (30 miles each run), so we aren't looking at major shifts at this point.  Overall, northern mountains will do worse while southern and southwestern mountains will do a lot better.

NAVGEM is as insistent in it's overly amped solution as the others have been with minimal amplification.  Given that the energy is riding up an old boundary and the strung out nature of the system, I tend to lean away from the NAVGEM and more towards Euro/NAM blend.  Why?  Because even 2 days ago, both Euro and NAM had the same exact solution.  Back in the day, this was known as the "EE Rule" (when the NAM was called the ETA model).  In the southeast, when the ETA and Euro are in agreement (now NAM and Euro), you could take that solution to the bank.

So, my inclination would be under an inch northern mountain, 1-2" central mountains (AVL), and 2-4" southwest and southern mountains.

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5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Hey hey!  Yea I thought I would stop by, see what's happening around here with the first real snow event of the season.

Tell you what, models seem to suggest a strung out low (rather than a classic condensed Miller A).  This is what is limiting the NW side of the precip (and thus a sharp cut-off).  I note that a NW trend to the frontogenesis seems to be in play (30 miles each run), so we aren't looking at major shifts at this point.  Overall, northern mountains will do worse while southern and southwestern mountains will do a lot better.

NAVGEM is as insistent in it's overly amped solution as the others have been with minimal amplification.  Given that the energy is riding up an old boundary and the strung out nature of the system, I tend to lean away from the NAVGEM and more towards Euro/NAM blend.  Why?  Because even 2 days ago, both Euro and NAM had the same exact solution.  Back in the day, this was known as the "EE Rule" (when the NAM was called the ETA model).  In the southeast, when the ETA and Euro are in agreement (now NAM and Euro), you could take that solution to the bank.

So, my inclination would be under an inch northern mountain, 1-2" central mountains (AVL), and 2-4" southwest and southern mountains.

Nice setup bro! I love to read what you are putting down.  This could not come at a better time right before Christmas either..

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Well....on a southwest flow aloft, the hole might be real. Haywood county and areas southwest (Franklin, Bryson City) will do better than Asheville, Weaverville, or even Mars Hill.

You know, out by us in Candler, we might do better than the rest of Buncombe county!




What's up HT?! Yeah you are right about that, but it tends to really over emphasize it. New Euro snowfall map gives most of Buncombe 3"+. This one could be interesting! Looking forward to it in Candler! I'll also be at a house I am building on a Christmas tree farm in Canton tomorrow AM so might have some festive views to share.

b84ed14b9fbca1e31584671e0449bfeb.jpg

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Euro was atrocious with this event. Ukmet is the king.

 

Looks like 2-4 is a good call right now.

I agree and Im not afraid to admit that the EURO has been struggling last few winters.. Its still the best if you look at verification scores but not like it used to be..

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15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll take a few inches. Still feeling greedy and hoping for a slight shift NW to put me firmly in the 4-6 ball park. I’m curious to see when/if Blacksburg will throw at least the NC mtn counties under some sort of advisory.

I'm thinking we'll see another shift NW on the 18z and 00z models and we'll be looking pretty for a solid 2-4 or 4-6

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4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Looks like us northern mountain folk still need a lot more help. Snow for 9 hours give or take then again Saturday morning but it all appears to be light.

I wouldn't say a lot. GFS and Euro look better for us. And the nam is still coming farther NW each run today

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3 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

I wouldn't say a lot. GFS and Euro look better for us. And the nam is still coming farther NW each run today

If it's any similar to the January storm, the trajectory of moisture will have the southern mountains eat all the precip up by the time it makes it this far north, and without help of moisture pushing east to west, it'll be essentially a dry slot. That's exactly what happened last January.

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

If it's any similar to the January storm, the trajectory of moisture will have the southern mountains eat all the precip up by the time it makes it this far north, and without help of moisture pushing east to west, it'll be essentially a dry slot. That's exactly what happened last January.

That I am not 100% on would love for Met1985 or someone else who knows better than I do to tell me their thoughts

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