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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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I’m confused as to why Mountain folks were getting so drawn into this system. Only the less reliable models were showing accumulating snow here. The GFS/EURO have been pretty steady in showing little to no snow in the mountains. 

1) it's December
2) systems generally trend NW. Our biggest system last year was an RDU special 3 days out on the globals.

I, for one, still haven't tossed this system at all.

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20 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

1) it's December
2) systems generally trend NW. Our biggest system last year was an RDU special 3 days out on the globals.

I, for one, still haven't tossed this system at all.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk
 

Yep very true. We kept saying it and I think I few posters got pissed lol. We wait and watch. 

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I didnt hear anybody going "all in" for this event.  To be honest, since weve always been on the far edge of geographical probability its made it easier to miss out on.  Nothing like being modeled in the bullseye for days and having models trend away in the last 24 hrs.

I am still watching, hoping for the miracle northwest shift even as it fizzles, and remembering its early decemeber.  

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I’m confused as to why Mountain folks were getting so drawn into this system. Only the less reliable models were showing accumulating snow here. The GFS/EURO have been pretty steady in showing little to no snow in the mountains. 




This
051d5cdfeb0b6998bcf9ff6b820f6157.jpg


EPS mean up to 3" for KAVL. This event has some sucked in because of the unknowns associated. I for one love tracking these type system, I mean what if it drops 6"? Don't mistake optimism as certainty in this thread. We are all snow lovers here and want to see it fall.
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This
051d5cdfeb0b6998bcf9ff6b820f6157.jpg&key=eefaf0d5e5d5b87ff96fd0a36b01054125880f9e400fee21b13d1c821f184609


EPS mean up to 3" for KAVL. This event has some sucked in because of the unknowns associated. I for one love tracking these type system, I mean what if it drops 6"? Don't mistake optimism as certainty in this thread. We are all snow lovers here and want to see it fall.
Any idea what the mean is for Boone? My phone refuses to load the meteograms on wxbell.

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I’m still optimistic. For some reason, my gut says that this storm will drop at least a few inches for us. This is a normal cycle (or seems to be) with everything the last couple of years. A couple of days out, the models are still trying to get a grasp...they flop in a good direction.... flop in a bad direction....and then we get a day or two out and the NW shift happens and everything is great again. Just gonna wait it out. If I remember correctly, I thought we were out of the game a day or two before the Christmas 2010 storm and thennnnn boom.

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56 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Nobody's talking about the cold. Already to 26.8. It was cold all day. Had a daylight high of 33.4 and that was around 10:00 am this morning. Finally feels like winter a little.

Easy bro. I've been harping on the cold quite a bit. Yeah it is a lot colder. Current temp here is 32 degrees. It's going to get a lot colder.

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6z NAM/GFS both west with a better look. 12z suite will likely follow the west trend. NAVGEM refuses to budge and still shows 1" QPF for the escarpment. UK with around .4-.5" QPF across the region (seems more likely to me than the NAVGEM) with the halfway solution between the NAV and Euro. 


This is good news.


.
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Just wanted to say how thankful I am for the levelheadedness of this group. Holy sh*t, the other threads have almost become unreadable. I am keeping an eye on things from Balfour/Mountain Home in Henderson Cty. I live a few hundred feet up a mountain over here and like to think that gives me some sort of advantage over the valleys, ha! Ok, back to lurking... 

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9 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Just wanted to say how thankful I am for the levelheadedness of this group. Holy sh*t, the other threads have almost become unreadable. I am keeping an eye on things from Balfour/Mountain Home in Henderson Cty. I live a few hundred feet up a mountain over here and like to think that gives me some sort of advantage over the valleys, ha! Ok, back to lurking... 

The mountains always have climo on their side. We know if there is a chance for winter weather in the South, we always sit better than anyone else and if we can't cash in, usually nobody does. It's easy to be levelheaded on these storms.

When you're always boderline, it drives you insane!

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18 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

It's coming to us fellas. Much improvement. Now just need the moisture to increase a tad for us near Boone and we're golden. Won't be at all surprised if that happens and WNC gets a widespread 4-6.22d9748a1dd70b8259b01f9ffcfd8a98.jpg

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That is a big shift. We will see if the nam can score on this. Never underestimate the NW trend. 

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