FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I understand that models will have differences between each other. But several give us a nice storm, while some others give us token flakes and we're almost 48 hours away. Almost ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I understand that models will have differences between each other. But several give us a nice storm, while some others give us token flakes and we're almost 48 hours away. Almost ridiculous. We did get a little bone tossed our way. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 652 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>506-071200- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- 652 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...Winter weather possible. Locally up to an inch of snow may accumulate. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: We did get a little bone tossed our way. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 652 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>506-071200- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- 652 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...Winter weather possible. Locally up to an inch of snow may accumulate. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Small bone, but a bone nonetheless. so this is our model war right now. JMA,CMC,NAVGEM, Ukie vs. GFS, Euro, EPS, Nam. the Gefs is kinda on the sidelines watching. I don't like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 New Nam was a lot closer to what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: New Nam was a lot closer to what we want. A lot closer, precip on the latest name seemed to just stop at Watauga and Ashe. Hopefully these trends continue. We wouldn't need much to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, NC_WX10 said: A lot closer, precip on the latest name seemed to just stop at Watauga and Ashe. Hopefully these trends continue. We wouldn't need much to be in the game. I guess maybe the moisture was too light, I thought I was in the good for several hours then I checked the snow totals lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I guess maybe the moisture was too light, I thought I was in the good for several hours then I checked the snow totals lol. Killer dry slot at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Biggest problem for mtn peeps is the SLP is way south.. goes from just north of Tampa to St Augustine then 100 miles or so off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Biggest problem for mtn peeps is the SLP is way south.. goes from just north of Tampa to St Augustine then 100 miles or so off the coast If we can get even a little less interaction with the GLL and allow even less of a positive tilt, the location of the low won't play as big of a factor. One can hope. Still think we're golden right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The trend is beginning to become evident, and at 48 hrs, we are in position. I think the models are just now starting to figure this storm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The trend is beginning to become evident, and at 48 hrs, we are in position. I think the models are just now starting to figure this storm out. I think we're golden. Unless the trends stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6z NAVGEM is a crush job for WNC. Looks like we'll over 1" of qpf all falling in a frozen column. It has been rock solid with its low track the past two days. I think this storm turns out to be a much bigger deal then many anticipated a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I think we're golden. Unless the trends stop. They won't. UK looks amazing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: They won't. UK looks amazing too. I just snowed danced on the middle of APP State's campus and got some boos. That UK looked fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Keep us up to date fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just wow. Perfect scenario. Total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 For those interested, Van Denton seems more upbeat about our odds. I always like to see when the TV Mets jump on board. A lot to gain with stories about snow, but also a ton to lose from viewers if you screw up that kind of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Setup looks GREAT for you guys, hope the UKIE is onto something! Definitely jealous, but hoping you guys JACKPOT with this early season system. Ski operations should be loving the pattern projected and I hope they rack up during the month of Dec. Good luck to you guys/gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I am still not biting. The GEFS actually looks a little less than 6z to me. I am still hoping for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I was really hoping to see the EURO start trending closer to the UKIE but it was only a small shift NW. Still not seeing this as anything more than a minor "event" here in the northern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: I was really hoping to see the EURO start trending closer to the UKIE but it was only a small shift NW. Still not seeing this as anything more than a minor "event" here in the northern mountains. Yea Euro and GFS show next to nothing for mtns.. hard to get excited no matter what the canadian, UK or NAM say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 I was really hoping to see the EURO start trending closer to the UKIE but it was only a small shift NW. Still not seeing this as anything more than a minor "event" here in the northern mountains. In the past the euro has struggled mightily with the NW extent of precip. Jan 14 and Jan 17 come to mind. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: In the past the euro has struggled mightily with the NW extent of precip. Jan 14 and Jan 17 come to mind. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk I was not up here in Jan 14 but I do remember last January the precip did reach much further west than what the Euro was showing. Looks like the EPS is a little further north and west than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 I was not up here in Jan 14 but I do remember last January the precip did reach much further west than what the Euro was showing. Looks like the EPS is a little further north and west than the op.I'm not kidding when I say the last run of the euro before the Jan storm last year was still under done IMBY. Didn't come around at all til the system was underway. NAM/RGEM nailed it. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: I'm not kidding when I say the last run of the euro before the Jan storm last year was still under done IMBY. Didn't come around at all til the system was underway. NAM/RGEM nailed it. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Do you remember how did the GFS and UKIE performed last Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Do you remember how did the GFS and UKIE performed last Jan?The gfs was junk. I think the ujie was over amped but don't remember for sure. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: Just wow. Perfect scenario. Check please. I suspect if this happens our neighborhood ski resort will be busy this weekend. It feels like winter. Currently 27.7 on my back porch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 18z nam = Uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Until the Euro really shows a more amped up system I wouldnt lose any sleep on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I’m confused as to why Mountain folks were getting so drawn into this system. Only the less reliable models were showing accumulating snow here. The GFS/EURO have been pretty steady in showing little to no snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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