SnoJoe Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: 18z run says hold on there just a minute.... 22 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I think you forgot about the infamous "Northwest trend". i'm sure we've got our fair share coming. Sincerely, the guy who didn't buy it two days ago. I do my analysis in "real time", thank you very much. Who would've thought the models would change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I do my analysis in "real time", thank you very much. Who would've thought the models would change. lol, just messin. I'm just going all in on this pattern coming up now, before the nina kicks in and we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 I think you forgot about the infamous "Northwest trend". i'm sure we've got our fair share coming. Sincerely, the guy who didn't buy it two days ago.That NW trend is what I'm watching for the storm Fri. Wouldn't take much for that moisture to get thrown back this way. The euro has shown that a couple times and the gfs several. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: That NW trend is what I'm watching for the storm Fri. Wouldn't take much for that moisture to get thrown back this way. The euro has shown that a couple times and the gfs several. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk If the storm does keep slowing like the models are showing, combine that with the possible NW trend and we might seriously be in business. One can hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: If the storm does keep slowing like the models are showing, combine that with the possible NW trend and we might seriously be in business. One can hope anyway. Just got home from work but the 12z EPS isn't half bad. Big difference from the 0z last night though the mean is skewed due to some whopper members. It's all about the trendzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The trailing clipper gives us token flakes, but the coastal low with an expanded precip shield is what we should root for here in WNC. Member 17 of the 00z EPS shows what's possible if the Southern energy slows and the trailing wave dropping in from the north is allowed to phase. Not saying this is going to happen, but it's still on the table (5 or so EPS members show 7"+ for KAVL). I think we are seeing the models latch on to this slower trend. EPS members have gradually increased the amount of precip WNC receives, and if that baroclinic zone can orient its flow over the SW mountains, we will be in business. This is going to be fun to model watch this week. I think all options are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Most on this board don't want the stronger storm because 850mb temps in their location would likely be too warm, but a more amped storm that runs closer to the coast pushes more moisture into WNC.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: Most on this board don't want the stronger storm because 850mb temps in their location would likely be too warm, but a more amped storm that runs closer to the coast pushes more moisture into WNC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I hate it for them but we in the mountains will take our chance with this setup every time. At least I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I hate it for them but we in the mountains will take our chance with this setup every time. At least I will. I really don't think outside the mountains will get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Hvward said: Most on this board don't want the stronger storm because 850mb temps in their location would likely be too warm, but a more amped storm that runs closer to the coast pushes more moisture into WNC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If it was say February or something and we had a good winter, I'd be all over wanting the rest of the board to cash in. But it'd December and we haven't had ours yet, so bring on a fullblown miller A if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm more interested in the clipper. There is a chance we score with the frontal wave but the pattern is too progressive atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 This far out, this is exactly where we should hope to be. I’d hate to be in the bullseye this early. I feel like this storm or it’s moisture will eventually trend nw before all is said and done. I could be wrong, but I feel like we’ve seen this happen time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro stepped in the right direction. Couple inches at Boone out of the Friday wave. Gfs went the opposite way.Eps will be interesting. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 We're moving closer to what we want to see with the Friday system. That's all I want right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z NAVGEM is where we want things to get too. The low is certainly trending in the right direction as you guys have said. Almost even develops a deformation feature. Models seem to be playing catch up with this one, and WNC is the spot you want to be when that begins to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Hvward said: 18z NAVGEM is where we want things to get too. The low is certainly trending in the right direction as you guys have said. Almost even develops a deformation feature. Models seem to be playing catch up with this one, and WNC is the spot you want to be when that begins to occur. We usually are. People tend to forget that. We have elevation and a prime spot in storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We usually are. People tend to forget that. We have elevation and a prime spit in storms like this. There are quite a few places who might claim to have prime spit, but I'm not sure that's something I'd brag about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: There are quite a few places who might claim to have prime spit, but I'm not sure that's something I'd brag about... Lol dang it! That's what happens when i post with a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The super clipper on the 10th has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 0z NAM looking interesting for a few snow flakes Thursday morning. Column of air appears to be just close enough to freezing at the surface to not melt flakes. This would be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Bufkit analysis on the 06z NAM also supportive of a few snow flakes making it into the valleys around WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 hmmm...Overall pattern honestly looks underwhelming right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: hmmm...Overall pattern honestly looks underwhelming right now... For snow yeah. I like the cold temps but for a storm signal it is weak. The best we can do is a strong clipper system or two. We will see but at least we are not cooking going into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro takes a step in the right direction. Few more shifts NW in precip shield and we could be looking at a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, NC_WX10 said: Euro takes a step in the right direction. Few more shifts NW in precip shield and we could be looking at a nice event. 3 days out of last January's 8"-er the Euro/EPS showed me us getting around an inch with most of the snow SE. Same for the big snow the year before. We'll be fine. Euro looks good for snow from 18z Friday through 12z Saturday or so based on RH charts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Agree with above posts. Euro did indeed follow the NAM northwest (12Z Dec. 5 package) for Friday. Nobody is interested in the GFS but it is the same to better. 18Z NAM is tough, but just one run and the event is still beyond 60 hr. At forecast temps chance to squeeze out some snow is reasonable. Saturday clipper is still there too. Considering the robust snowmaking the next 3 nights, plus two chances of light natural snow and good temperatures round the clock, this weekend looks good for skiing and riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 One thing I am loving is this nice steady rain we are getting. All day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS moves the precip a little be more NW this run. Baby steps but not really optimistic for us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The one thing that is frustrating is seeing these clipper systems dry up as we get closer to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Blah. I am happy that this December has been cooler and more enjoyable than the last two but it feels like a letdown to see nothing materialize from it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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