NCSNOW Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 11 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Webber posted on other board. I'm still on board with my prediction last week Joe and Met would have white ground next weekend. Via Tomer Burg's website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/, the 500 hPa anomalies in the base of the trough that will be centered over the Lakes this weekend may push into record territory for this time of the year. The lake effect snow in the wake of this trough will be nuts Delayed but not denied as JB would say. Gonna have to kick my hunch toward middle part next week for the 3500 foot club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 It is a cold, cold night at 4400' tonight...currently 29.4°. I'm flying through the firewood so far this season. Feeling pretty good about seeing some flakes this weekend! Edit: The 29° reading was at 1030... just checked the pws and the temp has climbed back up to 34.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I'm not completely sold on cold nor snow at this time. As you can see on the overnight runs the Euro looks a lot smoother than the GFS does and the GFS has been bouncing around a bit also. I would lean towards the GFS because of them blocking being shown but there is always room for this to break down or set up in a crappy area for us. We still have several days left before we really know what will happen with the trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 One thing to keep an eye on if the cold verifies is the Low at the end of the GFS run, been there for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Look for a cool down this weekend will maybe a few flurries this Sunday then its pretty much a crapshoot next week the way the models are behaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Look for a cool down this weekend will maybe a few flurries this Sunday then its pretty much a crapshoot next week the way the models are behaving. We've gotten good at crapshoots over the last few years so we will be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: We've gotten good at crapshoots over the last few years so we will be just fine. Lol yeah. I hate to be an azz posting non positive stuff but it just seems like the past few years we have been burned badly. So until we are in the thick of things then I am just keeping it even kill. It is just November currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I officially stopped caring about next week after noon yesterday. With our luck, we would have an amazing week or two then roast this winter. I'll wake back up once we get into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Lol yeah. I hate to be an azz posting non positive stuff but it just seems like the past few years we have been burned badly. So until we are in the thick of things then I am just keeping it even kill. It is just November currently. I get it and understand. Don't think you are the only one who thinks that way. Man I just wish winter would set in and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: I get it and understand. Don't think you are the only one who thinks that way. Man I just wish winter would set in and now. Lol me too but I am willing to wait until the middle of December to really get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Sunday Snow per the NAM WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 KGSP wording for Saturday Night SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT, WHILE A MOIST NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. INGREDIENTS ARE SUCH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY ONLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 4000', IF NOT 5000') ALONG THE TN BORDER. OTHERWISE, VERY GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS MOUNTAIN WAVE SCENARIO UNFOLDS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG/DEEPENING NW FLOW. IF ANYTHING, THE SETUP APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: KGSP wording for Saturday Night INGREDIENTS ARE SUCH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY ONLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 4000', IF NOT 5000') ALONG THE TN BORDER. This would be our third snowfall of the season. I'm kinda concerned about that wind and power outages though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 High wind warning likely and: BASED TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT ON HOURLY GUIDANCE GIVEN NEAR-STEADY TRENDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND RAPID COOLING BEHIND IT. SO FINALLY, I'LL NOTE THERE IS A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE THAT REMAINS BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND THUS SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST ALONG THE TENN BORDER. WINDS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART OF THE SETUP, WITH NO INSTABILITY AND TEMPS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. HENCE I WENT WITH A 7:1 SLR, AND SNOW TOTALS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS PRODUCES NUMBERS NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE ON WPC PROBABILISTIC SNOW PLOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I think a trip up to our Bald may be in order tomorrow morning. Should be some serious wind at 5500'. Deceptively peaceful this morning, and 46° feels like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 6 hours ago, Buckethead said: I think a trip up to our Bald may be in order tomorrow morning. Should be some serious wind at 5500'. Deceptively peaceful this morning, and 46° feels like spring. Good idea I plan to be up the Overmountain Victory Trail up to Big Yellow Mountain i treasure the peace and solitude year round but it is even more meaningful going into Advent every year. It is the source of my strength and keeps me rooted on my foundation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The wind is ripping this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Looks like a good NW flow is set up this morning. Radar looks ok for some decent flakes up near the line. Wind has to be howling up that way if its 10-15 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Just under 1" up here so far this morning. Tiny little flakes still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 On 11/13/2017 at 0:25 PM, NCSNOW said: Webber posted on other board. I'm still on board with my prediction last week Joe and Met would have white ground next weekend. Via Tomer Burg's website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/, the 500 hPa anomalies in the base of the trough that will be centered over the Lakes this weekend may push into record territory for this time of the year. The lake effect snow in the wake of this trough will be nuts Good call. I've got right at an inch and still have light snow. Temp is 28.4 with a 24 mph wind. Had a gust in the last hour to 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 35 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Good call. I've got right at an inch and still have light snow. Temp is 28.4 with a 24 mph wind. Had a gust in the last hour to 41. Yes Sir! Your NWSF = my leaves getting blown out of the yard over the last two days. Thanks NW winds However, some flakes would be nice down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Glad I didn't set an alarm, because as usual, can't even buy a flake of snow in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 White Head Mountain was white today. Least thats what the farmer told me it was called. We where north of sparta getting tree early this year, playoff football on the road black Friday. Anyway tops where white and that was a cold wind blowing no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Slopes will be open in a few days. Got dusted up pretty good last night and guns are firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Both Beech, Sugar and App are blowing snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Both Beech, Sugar and App are blowing snow tonight Both all three? That's hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 looks like it's going to be boring for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Congrats on those who had snow yesterday. We had snow but nothing really laid on the ground. Its November so seasonable will be welcome. I really do not see huge bouts of cold but no real torch either so we will take it. It may be boring weather but 30 and 40s boring is a lot better than 70s and boring for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 So some observations with today's runs so far. This weekend looks to get really cold but we are like 5 to 6 days away. There looks to be some upslope snow also for the Northern mountains primarily because the trough centered sucks for true NW upslope snow for everyone. Sure we may see some snow showers but it looks like this will be a NNW wind which favors the northern mountains. But we are like 6 days away so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 The chances for some snow is diminishing fast. The models keep pulling the trough northward. We have all this blocking and all it does is too keep us from torching lol. Who wud have thunk it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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