Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[Hurricane Agnes]

Irma 5 pm update -

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[psv88]

My father left Naples to evacuate to a friends house in Atlanta...and they just lost power.

[Santa Claus]

I was trying to load Dr. Hart's phase space diagram site to see just how tropical Irma still is, and after a minute of waiting for it to load realized that it's at FSU and who knows wtf the data and power situation is.  Oops.

I've seen more symmetric storms called extratropical before.

[OpenToSuggestions]

Forecast post-mortem by the Capital Weather Gang. Pretty sure commentary to this board about the need for additional forecast technology funding is preaching to the choir though. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Forecast post-mortem by the Capital Weather Gang. Pretty sure commentary to this board about the need for additional forecast technology funding is preaching to the choir though. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement

He's right.  Maybe money should not go to building a wall, but instead to help the science.

[thess]

He's right.  Maybe money should not go to building a wall, but instead to help the science.

Doesn't seem like science is in the current administration's best interests.

(Sorry, just exhausted by 2017 so far.)

[psv88]

More damage reports from Naples. My fathers neighbors' houses sustained serious structural damage, including destroyed lanais which were simply blown away in their entirety, and damage to their roofs so the extent that water is leaking into their houses. These are very well built homes from 2005. Frankly, I'm impressed how well they held up in 140 mph winds

[CoreyandFrosty]

Guys. The winds are getting stronger here in Atlanta in last 30 mins. Any idea why?

[TPAwx]

Euro verified well overall, but as we saw a 20-25 mile variation 24 hours out can and did result in significantly different outcomes WRT surge, placement of highest winds, and whether the impact was felt by large population centers or more rural areas.

 

[gymengineer]

46 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said:

Guys. The winds are getting stronger here in Atlanta in last 30 mins. Any idea why?

There's been a wind max in the elevated areas from western NC into western SC and into far NE Georgia.... I don't think it made it into the Atlanta area, but here're the observations from Habersham County airport from 4:35 through 9:15 pm-- it's more consistently impressive than many other parts of Georgia:

11	21:15	E 37 G 53	5.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN011 OVC017	59	57			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	20:55	E 35 G 49	5.00	Light Rain and Windy	SCT010 BKN015 OVC022	58	57			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	20:35	E 31 G 58	4.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC019	58	57			94%	NA	NA	29.60	NA
11	20:15	E 39 G 53	4.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC021	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.59	NA
11	19:55	NE 36 G 56	3.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN011 OVC017	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.60	NA
11	19:35	E 32 G 46	3.00	Light Rain and Windy	NA	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	19:10	E 39 G 55	3.00	Rain and Windy	BKN014 OVC021	59	57			92%	NA	NA	29.62	NA
11	18:55	NE 29 G 51	4.00	Rain and Windy	SCT012 BKN019 OVC027	59	57			92%	NA	NA	29.64	NA
11	18:35	NE 31 G 44	5.00	Rain and Windy	SCT012 BKN019 OVC035	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.62	NA
11	18:15	NE 29 G 41	2.00	Rain and Windy	SCT011 BKN016 OVC021	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.63	NA
11	17:55	NE 43 G 55	1.25	Heavy Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC018	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.64	NA
11	17:35	NE 32 G 51	0.75	Windy	NA	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.65	NA
11	17:15	NE 29 G 54	2.50	Light Rain and Windy	SCT015 OVC020	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.67	NA
11	16:55	NE 38 G 56	2.00	Rain and Windy	SCT013 BKN017 OVC023	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.69	NA
11	16:35	E 38 G 52	2.00	Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC020	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.70	NA

[CoreyandFrosty]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

There's been a wind max in the elevated areas from western NC into western SC and into far NE Georgia.... I don't think it made it into the Atlanta area, but here're the observations from Habersham County airport from 4:35 through 9:15 pm-- it's more consistently impressive than many other parts of Georgia:

11	21:15	E 37 G 53	5.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN011 OVC017	59	57			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	20:55	E 35 G 49	5.00	Light Rain and Windy	SCT010 BKN015 OVC022	58	57			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	20:35	E 31 G 58	4.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC019	58	57			94%	NA	NA	29.60	NA
11	20:15	E 39 G 53	4.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC021	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.59	NA
11	19:55	NE 36 G 56	3.00	Light Rain and Windy	BKN011 OVC017	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.60	NA
11	19:35	E 32 G 46	3.00	Light Rain and Windy	NA	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.61	NA
11	19:10	E 39 G 55	3.00	Rain and Windy	BKN014 OVC021	59	57			92%	NA	NA	29.62	NA
11	18:55	NE 29 G 51	4.00	Rain and Windy	SCT012 BKN019 OVC027	59	57			92%	NA	NA	29.64	NA
11	18:35	NE 31 G 44	5.00	Rain and Windy	SCT012 BKN019 OVC035	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.62	NA
11	18:15	NE 29 G 41	2.00	Rain and Windy	SCT011 BKN016 OVC021	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.63	NA
11	17:55	NE 43 G 55	1.25	Heavy Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC018	58	56			94%	NA	NA	29.64	NA
11	17:35	NE 32 G 51	0.75	Windy	NA	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.65	NA
11	17:15	NE 29 G 54	2.50	Light Rain and Windy	SCT015 OVC020	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.67	NA
11	16:55	NE 38 G 56	2.00	Rain and Windy	SCT013 BKN017 OVC023	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.69	NA
11	16:35	E 38 G 52	2.00	Rain and Windy	BKN013 OVC020	58	56			93%	NA	NA	29.70	NA

 

Thanks for the reply. Do you think those little bands SE of Atlanta will contain some winds as they pivot into the ATL area?

[CoreyandFrosty]

Actually, I see one of those bands has a Special weather statement out for it:

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
938 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

GAZ048-058-059-120215-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
938 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTS...JASPER AND
SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 937 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Adgateville, moving
northwest at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jackson, Monticello, Stewart, Turtle Cove, Worthville, Calvin,
Eudora, Hillsboro, North Alcovy, McElheneys Crossroads, Fincherville,
Adgateville and Stark.

[Odd]

We're northwest of Atlanta... Steady rain all day, some gusts up to 20 or so, but so far hasn't been bad... Our spring storms are much worse.

[yoda]

This is interesting

 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

This is interesting

 

It was easy to get lulled into overconfidence on the Euro track, given its performance during much of Irma's existence.  

[Amped]

Euro pulled an apology storm at 00z Sunday. All other guidance was further east.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I'm very disappointed with the extreme rudeness and elitism demonstrated by the moderators during the entire course of the tracking of Harvey. The nastiness and superiority among the moderators and some veterans was embarrassing and many new users will not be returning.

I was also appalled at the criticism leveled at the select few who had the courage to express doubts that Irma was going to produce catastrophic damage on our shores. 40/70 kicked major azZ but was maligned in real time, but was proven right. Other posters were also attacked for casting doubts about the ultimate impact. These users were prescient. Instead of being applauded they were either banned, limited, or suspended. 

The nhc did a poor job with this hurricane and their criticism shouldn't have been censored.  This was basically a cat 2 hurricane with a few higher gusts. I find that 142 mph gust in Naples to be highly dubious and as valid as a weekend course completion certificate from trump university.

 

[MikeB_01]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Euro verified well overall, but as we saw a 20-25 mile variation 24 hours out can and did result in significantly different outcomes WRT surge, placement of highest winds, and whether the impact was felt by large population centers or more rural areas.

 

This graph is very helpful for verification. Can you send the link to where you got it? 

Thanks

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I was appalled at how poorly the nhc did with storm surge predictions in broward and Palm beach counties! A forecast of 5-10 feet in two of the most densely and wealthiest coastal counties and ending up with zero surge in some areas, is embarrassing.

 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

 

The nhc did a poor job with this hurricane and their criticism shouldn't have been censored.  This was basically a cat 2 hurricane with a few higher gusts. I find that 142 mph gust in Naples to be highly dubious and as valid as a weekend course completion certificate from trump university.

 

The area where that gust was measured (east side of Naples) was in the northern/eastern eyewall, where one would expect some of the strongest gusts.  It doesn't seem that unbelievable.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

This is an unrealistic request considering the talent level of the majority of the people who are currently running our governmental agencies, but we need someone strong to take over who's able to communicate.

Neil Frank and Bob sheets were the best in my lifetime. Since sheets left I've been underwhelmed. They need someone to start having press conferences and detailed briefings carried live by twc and the three cable news nets when a big hurricane is bearing down on us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My take on why, as bad as it was, Irma would have been so much worse in Florida:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/hurricane-irma-verification-cuba-1-irma.html

[jojo762]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The area where that gust was measured (east side of Naples) was in the northern/eastern eyewall, where one would expect some of the strongest gusts.  It doesn't seem that unbelievable.

... and with numerous other gusts recorded of 130+ mph, it's very believable to see an isolated 140+ mph gust like this.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Despite the bad forecasts and the over reliance on the Euro the tv nets had great wall to wall coverage and great pictures. Years ago in the early days of cable tv did not go wall to wall days on end. The game has changed. It used to be CNN deploying John zarella and that was about it. He'd throw it over to flip spiceland and that'd be about it. Then it would be on to other news.

Now, all 4 networks go balls to the walls with great sound and great images because the numbers go way up during hurricane coverage. CNN is number 3 behind Fox and msnbc but during hurricane coverage they win because they draw in non political viewers who rarely watch the news.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I was appalled that someone as smart as Bryan Norcross gave credence to a gust of 109 in Miami Dade.

[Amped]

Over hype is going to happen with any storm that is a cat5 5 days from landfall.   Nothing can be done about it.  People are going to get a false impression in there head and from the media about how bad the storm is going to be in their back yard and then blame NHC when that false impression is wrong. 

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Props to snowgoose! He did the best job forecasting this hurricane out of everyone regardless whether it was Twitter, this site, or tv.

[Bostonseminole]

I wonder how many posts were deleted from this thread leading up to LF



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[Jebman]

Kudos to the National Weather Service. Weather forecasting is an inexact science. They did the best they could. Models are not infallible.

[HarveyLeonardFan]