Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[dan11295]

This is the Flood Flood Emergency for Jacksonville

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

FLC031-111645-
/O.CON.KJAX.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170911T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Duval FL-
849 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...SAN
MARCO...SOUTH HAMPTON...LANDON PARK...AND RIVERSIDE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY...

Storm surge flooding is already occurring in and near Downtown
Jacksonville.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for areas near the St. Johns River
for storm surge flooding.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Go to the highest point
in your house if a single story, or on the second story if possible.
DO NOT GO INTO FLOOD WATERS as there may be electric current in the
water. Water will continue to rise until around 2 pm this afternoon.
Water levels may reach 4 to 6 ft above ground level on the immediate
banks of the St. Johns and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Downtown Jacksonville, San Marco, South Hampton, Landon Park, and
Riverside.

This message has been coordinated with Duval County Emergency
Management.
 

[CoastalWx]

Any reports from just east of Naples? Seemed like the worst damage could be there, but I have not seen any reports.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Nope.  Pretty good jobs by the models.  Bad job by the posters, particularly the amateurs, as usual.  The models picked out the general area for landfall days in advance.  The mean model error was relatively low throughout Irma's lifetime.  Modeling really has come a long way.  As usual, this place is littered with wishcasting, overconfidence, and misunderstanding of ensemble spread and uncertainty.  Model interpretation is sorely lacking.  Most people here are pretty clueless.

Saying most people are clueless is a bit extreme. The rest of your post is on point.

[forecasterjack]

40-50 mph onshore winds along the GA/SC coast as Irma moves inland. That will drive a big surge threat. Record flood stage forecast to be reached in Savannah! Link: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/windspeed-barbs/20170911-2100z.html

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Any reports from just east of Naples? Seemed like the worst damage could be there, but I have not seen any reports.

My father lives there but evacuated. Neighbors reported structural damage to their houses and needed to go "protect them" after the eyewall passed. Since then he hasn't heard from them regarding the condition of his house. Note that these houses were built post Andrew so I am curious as to the damage. From radar looked like they took the worst of the eyewall and were in much deeper reds than Naples proper. 

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Any reports from just east of Naples? Seemed like the worst damage could be there, but I have not seen any reports.

I have been looking too. In these cases no news is usually bad news. It's quick and easy to call "all clear" but when there's a lot of damage, and potential loss of life it takes a while to assess...

[Hurricane Agnes]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My father lives there but evacuated. Neighbors reported structural damage to their houses and needed to go "protect them" after the eyewall passed. Since then he hasn't heard from them regarding the condition of his house. Note that these houses were built post Andrew so I am curious as to the damage. From radar looked like they took the worst of the eyewall and were in much deeper reds than Naples proper. 

There is a storm chaser (Charles Peek) driving around the area, from the streets closer to the beach to a couple blocks inland (all west of the municipal airport).  There are a lot of palm debris strewn on the streets and large trees down (including some palms).  There are parts closer to the beach further south that have at least a foot of water on the streets. At least where he has driven, the houses appear okay but there is a lot of debris.  To add - there were quite a few cars that came out about 45 minutes ago and have been driving around where he was driving.

[wxeyeNH]

I have a general question about hurricanes.   What made Irma so big in size?  Was is because it formed so early out in the Atlantic and was able to go through eye replacement cycles?  Why are some hurricanes smaller in size than others?  Perhaps it takes time or perhaps they have to travel through moist environments and have good outflow in all quads.  Andrew was a small storm but had that vicious eyewall.  

[superjames1992]

My aunt/uncle live in Naples most of the year, but they stay in Maine during the summer (so they aren't there now).  I haven't heard how their condo weathered the storm down there, but fortunately they are on the fourth floor, so the condo itself should be mostly okay.  Not sure if they'll be able to reach it, however.

It is quite breezy up here in Tallahassee, but outside of a few power flickers we're still holding on to our power...for now.  We are lucking out by being on the weaker west side of the storm.

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There is a storm chaser (Charles Peek) driving around the area, from the streets closer to the beach to a couple blocks inland (all west of the municipal airport).  There are a lot of palm debris strewn on the streets and large trees down (including some palms).  There are parts closer to the beach further south that have at least a foot of water on the streets. At least where he has driven, the houses appear okay but there is a lot of debris.  To add - there were quite a few cars that came out about 45 minutes ago and have been driving around where he was driving.

Thanks. My father is well east of there in the orange tree section. Looks they really got it much worse than areas further west in Naples. 

[forecasterjack]

GOES16 1 min loop of the stream of supercells off the SC/GA coast. Crazy awesome (as long as they stay offshore!) https://weather.us/satellite/793-w-321-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play

[zipperbaum]

2 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Same question in general about the surge forecasts vs verification, from Naples north.  Trying to get info on Tampa this morning and it appears there was *no* surge.  In this case I and am sure millions of Floridians are OK with the surges not occurring to the level of forecast, but will be important to analyze everything related to the event and communications since surge is almost always the most life threatening element of a hurricane.

3 hours ago the Bay was empty.  Right now my dock is about to go under water and the bay is still rising.  Tampa Bay is NOT out of the woods yet if you live on or near the water.

[MikeB_01]

2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wouldnt those values been reached south of naples, right of the landfall point?  

I'm not sure we will get actual data on the surge from points south of Naples. There isn't any device measuring those levels from Naples all the way down to the keys. My guess is that the area south and east of Marco got some bas surge. Luckily, that is mostly swamp.

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, zipperbaum said:

3 hours ago the Bay was empty.  Right now my dock is about to go under water and the bay is still rising.  Tampa Bay is NOT out of the woods yet if you live on or near the water.

Valid point. I was looking at that persistent onshore flow earlier this morning...Euro has 30-45 mph winds with gusts 50-70 mph in the northeast Gulf for most of the day...

The water will certainly keep piling up, much in the same way it is in Savannah and Jacksonville right now.

[emblaze2]

SPC is less bullish on tornado threat for land areas: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1641.html

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, Scott Philips said:

Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coast hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The UKMET showed the Cuba landfall well in advance.   It's one of the better models out there, but the graphics are bad, so it gets less credibility that it deserves.

[Tony Sisk]

41 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

GOES16 1 min loop of the stream of supercells off the SC/GA coast. Crazy awesome (as long as they stay offshore!) https://weather.us/satellite/793-w-321-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play

that one super cell has grown and headed directly towards my kids home on Sullivans Island.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The UKMET showed the Cuba landfall well in advance.   It's one of the better models out there, but the graphics are bad, so it gets less credibility that it deserves.

To be fair UKMET had it going deep into Cuba while the euro had it close to the Cuba north coast.  The euro was much closer since the eye never landed fully in Cuba.

[harrisale]

I feel as though overall, this storm will appear to be overhyped and contribute to 'boy who cried wolf' complacency in the long run (the 'nuclear hurricane' headlines were particularly irresponsible). Now that's not to say Irma wasn't a beast, or won't leave mass destruction in her wake; one look at the Caribbean islands should be enough to retire this storm name. Damage in FL will be extensive also, although perhaps nowhere near some of the doomsday scenarios we were seeing 3-4 days out from landfall.

Unfortunately, the storm triggered one of the largest mass evacuations in US history. In the end, it will appear to many in the evac zones (particularly in E FL) that evacuating was unnecessary. As forecasters, we all know it was the right call to leave, but try explaining to the general public the concept of 3 day hurricane forecast track error. States of emergency in the Carolinas will also likely seem unnecessary in the end.

Hopefully Floridians will still follow evacuation orders next time a large system approaches. With Irma this year, and Matthew last, that's two large hurricane near misses for Miami in two years. I can understand not wanting to pack up the car and board up the windows a third time. Irma didn't miss by much. An earlier turn northwest by a few hundred miles, and there was the legitimate possibility of a Cat 5 heading to the east coast of Florida. Fortunately not this time.

And with that, I'm taking a break from the models and boards for a few days. Been fun tracking as usual.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

To be fair UKMET had it going deep into Cuba while the euro had it close to the Cuba north coast.  The euro was much closer since the eye never landed fully in Cuba.

Yeah, I would agree with that.   Both models picked up on the wide turn, but the Euro was better.  Amazing how much better the Euro is than the hurricane models

[McQuackleton]

First aerial footage of the Keys. 

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

Do you guys think the winds will get high in Atlanta Ga? Notice they are picking up a bit. But....I am thinking maybe max gust to maybe 55-60 mph?

[RutgersWx92]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah, I would agree with that.   Both models picked up on the wide turn, but the Euro was better.  Amazing how much better the Euro is than the hurricane models

The Euro wasn't without its own issues too though, as has been pointed out already. Even just 24 hours out, it was way too far west with Irma's track once it got to Florida. Overall it performed the best, but that was a crucial mistake that made a big difference for highly-populated areas.

[psv88]

Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

[psv88]

Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

[psv88]

Severe damage at the Naples airport, roof flew of fire station at the airport, and it lost some hangars. Sounds representative of the wind gusts recorded. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-reports-roof-flew-off-fire-station-naples-airport/651809001/

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just now, psv88 said:

Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

USGS map of the river/canal/creek system in FL and quite a few rivers/creeks are at or above flood stage - particularly around Tampa - https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real&sid=w__map&r=fl

[psv88]

Even MIA is still closed due to storm damage. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Any reports from just east of Naples? Seemed like the worst damage could be there, but I have not seen any reports.

Looks bad.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-irma-caused-sizable-damage-naples-drone-footage/story?id=49757223

[psv88]

Record flooding in Jacksonville.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-irma/the-latest-possible-tornado-rips-through-st-augustine

Jacksonville International Airport gusted to 86. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

The extent of the hurricane force winds is absurd.