forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: I've been watching loops of the IR and it's as if it wants to go back out into the Atlantic. Final frame as of a few minutes ago- yeah I kinda noticed that too. Perhaps as its undergoing ET, it's "feeling" the effects of that big ET low in the North Atlantic a bit more? This satellite looks almost exactly like the satellite in the WPAC a week ago when Sanvu ET'd and helped a big ET low bomb out. Not every day you get to watch a RWT develop over the North Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 By comparing the radar to satellite, it looks like the mid-level circulation has gone a different direction (NNE) than the low level circulation (NNW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: By comparing the radar to satellite, it looks like the mid-level circulation has gone a different direction (NNE) than the low level circulation (NNW). I highlighted 2 areas that seem to be moving separately (the 1st circle appears to be the current position of Irma's EW & the 2nd is something else trying to move into the Atlantic) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 This system's extratropical transition is making a very big rain threat to the NE coast of FL into GA. Many flood gauges in JAX at major flood stage now: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster. Thanks for this information I have family in St Augustine... how far in relation to the river is the city itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster. Yea the power outage map seems to be well depicted here... https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida all counties except for the panhandle have 30% or more customers without power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 You can just see her ingesting all that cold, dry air from up here in the Midwest. Still this thing remains a hurricane which amazes me, on land for over a day and still at hurricane strength is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: You can just see her ingesting all that cold, dry air from up here in the Midwest. Still this thing remains a hurricane which amazes me, on land for over a day and still at hurricane strength is incredible Water vapor - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Water vapor - Question: in response to th mid attitude circulation moving NNE into the Atlantic does that mean a whole lot... sorry a newbie in this area... if someone could explain that would be greatly appreciated... thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Philips Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coast hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hoursSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Scott Philips said: Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coats hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think the ECMWF might have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think the ECMWF might have something to say about that. The ECMWF struggled also. It was right about more Cuba interaction, but the 00z run yesterday had the center of Irma tracking just west of Tampa Bay, which was obviously way too far west and a pretty bad forecast for just 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, RutgersWx92 said: The ECMWF struggled also. It was right about more Cuba interaction, but the 00z run yesterday had the center of Irma tracking just west of Tampa Bay, which was obviously way too far west and a pretty bad forecast for just 24 hours out. Despite that, The Euro still was the best track forecast out there for most of the duration of the storm from west of the Cape Verde's. It also never showed the deepening to the 880's like the GFS had approaching Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, Scott Philips said: Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coast hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nope. Pretty good jobs by the models. Bad job by the posters, particularly the amateurs, as usual. The models picked out the general area for landfall days in advance. The mean model error was relatively low throughout Irma's lifetime. Modeling really has come a long way. As usual, this place is littered with wishcasting, overconfidence, and misunderstanding of ensemble spread and uncertainty. Model interpretation is sorely lacking. Most people here are pretty clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 GOES16 WV show the dry air sweeping into South Florida. All the deep moisture is venting away from the system to the north. Irma is dying, and I couldn't be happier. WV loop: https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, PWMan said: Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines. Wouldnt those values been reached south of naples, right of the landfall point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Wouldnt those values been reached south of naples, right of the landfall point? Possibly, I haven't seen any raw numbers yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, PWMan said: Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? Same question in general about the surge forecasts vs verification, from Naples north. Trying to get info on Tampa this morning and it appears there was *no* surge. In this case I and am sure millions of Floridians are OK with the surges not occurring to the level of forecast, but will be important to analyze everything related to the event and communications since surge is almost always the most life threatening element of a hurricane. https://mobile.twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/907187707411156993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 8 am update summary - Irma is now a TS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/111156.shtml? ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 49A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING SOME WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 82.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines. Thanks. Certainly the overwhelming public message, from the mayor and on-air mets, was that there would literally be 10-15' of water rushing over the dunes and inundating downtown. I'm sure everyone there is relieved - as am I as someone who's spent time there. It would be helpful for folks to understand some of the nuances involved so they don't discount future warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Flash Flood Emergency along the St.John's around Downtown JAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 The parade of supercells from E FL has shifted NE towards Savannah/Charleston. The tornado threat is NOT over! Radar loop: https://weather.us/radar-us/georgia/reflectivity/KCLX.html#play these guys are hauling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, stockmanjr said: Flash Flood Emergency along the St.John's around Downtown JAX. St. John's at Main St. Bridge in Jacksonville is currently at 5.1' (1' above previous record crest) and rising. Currently at low tide there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 The sun is out in South Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jersey1988 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 We have a house in Marco Island. I just want to post and say THANK YOU to all of those who have been contributing to these Irma threads over the past 7- 10 days. We have been lurking and following all of the up to date contributions throughout each day. Marco took a direct hit from Irma. Unfortunately; we do not know the extent of property damage, flooding, etc at this time. They are not allowing anyone onto the island until likely Wednesday. Officials needs to inspect all of the bridges and take care of the down power lines and road blocks caused by downed trees. If you are on the island and choose to leave; you will not be allowed back until further notice. There was significant flooding around San Marco where there are a lot of businesses but it is unclear on damages sustained by most of the residential areas. Again, thank you for your updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I think more of the model error/forecast error would have been forgettable had the recurve not coincided with the close proximity of Cuba and especially Florida. The exact timing of that recurve was absolutely critical to impacts in Florida. Models rarely have a good handle on trough interactions such as what happened with Irma---most of us know this all too well. Wisdom says to wait until the recurve manifests before increasing confidence. But the lead time for that interaction was less than 48 hrs from significant impacts in the keys and Fla. So you have everyone asking about preparedness/evacuations/LF location BEFORE model accuracy greatly increased. Personally I was fairly confident 5+ days out Irma would make a close pass/LF in south Florida. It was beyond that where the forecast became muddied for reasons already stated above. But I too felt the pressure to make a confident call on the details when I fully knew it could not be done until the recurve commenced. In a perfect forecasting world a very powerful hurricane recurves long before (72 hrs+) it approaches a major populated area....When another Irma situation inevitably arises, the general population will again be asking for a much higher degree of confidence than we can realistically provide at short lead times. Next time we must do a better job of pressing back. Time isn't the only variable that affects model chaos--we know this--but we need to do a better job making sure everyone else does too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 NAM UH showing the tornado threat continuing into this afternoon in GA/SC. Irma isn't done yet! Link: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/800-w-320-n/updraft-helicity/20170911-1700z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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