OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Some of those were quite bad, like the one showing Irma 300 mi N of PR moving toward the NW. We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks. but following up on minesaw's post. I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well. Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ? That is very abnormally spread-out .. friggin Huge. (the most current part) Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). We'll be battling these hot takes over the coming days because Irma didn't totally decimate Miami and/or make landfall at a certain point on an arbitrary scale. **** is intellectually void and thus ripe for widespread dissemination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Ocala to Gainesville getting into those nasty bands wrapping in. Spin up potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 There is going to be a lot of rain in N Florida and SW Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Maybe someone mentioned it and I missed it, but what about the sheer size of the circulation? Much harder to get a large system to ramp up rapidly as opposed to a small one. Absolutely...that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks. but following up on minesaw's post. I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well. Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ? That is very abnormally spread-out .. friggin Huge. (the most current part) Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning. Sandy's wind field exploded even larger along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Quincy said: Sandy's wind field exploded even larger along the East Coast. Was just thinking that. Sandy causes hurricane conditions on the Great Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Is the blowup in windfield and precipitation related to the extratropical transition of these systems? Irma is interacting with that cold front while still at a very low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). I think the NHC did a good job with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 yea, forgot about Sandy. Then again, it was extra-tropical system. Irma could be the first one warm core hurricane with such a wind field. Check out Jose, surprised he didn't make the northward turn yet. Looks like he's chasing mommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the NHC did a good job with Irma. It's going to be a pretty successful forecast for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Extreme Wind Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL 1114 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017 The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a * Extreme Wind Warning for... Polk County in central Florida... * Until 1245 AM EDT * At 1111 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar and emergency management in Hardee County indicated a core of very strong winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Irma that were moving northward into Polk County. Wind gusts greater than 100 mph are possible across Polk County through 1230 AM. This is an dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation for those outdoors! * Locations impacted include... Lakeland, Winter Haven, Haines City, Bartow, Lake Wales, Auburndale, Fussels Corner, Combee Settlement, Lakeland Linder Airport, Medulla, Jan Phyl Village, Poinciana, Fort Meade, Lake Alfred, Crooked Lake Park, Mulberry, Dundee, Frostproof, Davenport and Eagle Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's going to be a pretty successful forecast for them. While technically wildly successful (Hell, GFS was only 30mb/60 miles off from LAST MONDAY!); frequenting boards by non-meteorological people showing immense dissatisfaction Miami was not obliterated. I don't know how expectations of accuracy like Back To The Future 2 can be overcome. Trying to resist the urge to punch them through the face on the internet, but expect that sort of public reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's going to be a pretty successful forecast for them. They waited too long to adjust the forecast to account for Cuba, though...that is my only qualm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: They waited too long to adjust the forecast to account for Cuba, though...that is my only qualm. Yeah the intensity for sure (which as we know is the most difficult thing to forecast), but the track always showed Cuba was in play despite the protestations of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types. I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points. True. Media outlets could help by not showing a center line, but it seems like many of them still show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I know it gets tough with a high stakes system like Irma, but I wish people could keep the morality issues out of these threads. I mean, you need to understand that its a weather forum, and people are intrigued by exciting weather. I understand that creates a moral conflict, but within this context that is their right. I think with a calm pulse and clear head, most would admit that a forum of weather nuts is not the place to go to find the vast majority of people wishing big storms away. No one controls it, and we all hope people do what they need to in order to remain safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah the intensity for sure (which as we know is the most difficult thing to forecast), but the track always showed Cuba was in play despite the protestations of some. I will say, once they adjusted they were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Latest update still has this a minimal cat 2, almost 9 hours after the Marco Island landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Kissimmee getting slammed by the remnant northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 My friend who's in Bartow said the winds were so strong he couldn't open his front door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agrayson12 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks. but following up on minesaw's post. I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well. Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ? That is very abnormally spread-out .. friggin Huge. (the most current part) Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning. 1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks. but following up on minesaw's post. I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well. Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ? That is very abnormally spread-out .. friggin Huge. (the most current part) Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning. I don't know if it's the storm... but I CAN tell you everything is blowing off my front porch. And I am in Mobile AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 #1 Hurricane Ivan - 70.4#2 Hurricane Irma - 66.2It's going to be close. Irma is running out of time and may weaken/transition baroclinic just before it can dethrone Ivan. Either way, what a record-breaking beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 JAX had an 87mph wind gust at 340am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 am update - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Upper level outflow and dynamics associated with the jet streak to Irma's north are now dominating the system as the inner core evaporates approaching Jacksonville. Amazing to watch. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Upper level outflow and dynamics associated with the jet streak to Irma's north are now dominating the system as the inner core evaporates approaching Jacksonville. Amazing to watch. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play I've been watching loops of the IR and it's as if it wants to go back out into the Atlantic. Final frame as of a few minutes ago- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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