Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[LakeEffectKing]

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

[TalcottWx]

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

Taking a peek at water vapor loops from GOES-16, storm is certainly restructuring itself quite nicely at this hour.

[McQuackleton]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

CNN saying NWS confirmed it'll be a Cat 5 at landfall. Any source for this, I can't find one.

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

[hlcater]

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

Big, symmetric bursts of convection and a warming eye. Definitely signs of intensification after being mostly steady state throughout the day.

[McQuackleton]

[mappy]

Guys, there is an evacuation thread , please talk there about people who have evacuated.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Papa Joe said:

Do they live on the Ocean side or the Gulf side?

Not sure. In marathon they are on a come now, but I'm not sure if it's Oceanside or golf side. Actually Florida bay. I think they are on the Florida BaysideNot sure. In marathon they are on a come now, but I'm not sure if it's Oceanside or golf side. Actually Florida bay. I think they are on the Florida Bayside

[CheeselandSkies]

3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

There's explicitly a tick up to 160 MPH (Cat 5) at the 36-hour forecast point. However, that isn't (and shouldn't be interpreted as) "confirmation" that it "will" be a Cat 5 at landfall. The potential is there, certainly, but it all hinges on time spent very near/over Cuba.

[Casualbrain]

9 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

That is looking at the 700-850mb steering layer for weak tropical storms. Take a look at the 200 to 700mb steering layer for storms under 940mb, such as Irma:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

Well I'll be a noob - that makes a lot more sense!

 

[McQuackleton]

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

There's explicitly a tick up to 160 MPH (Cat 5) at the 36-hour forecast point. However, that isn't (and shouldn't be interpreted as) "confirmation" that it "will" be a Cat 5 at landfall. The potential is there, certainly, but it all hinges on time spent very near/over Cuba.

I understand this I was responding to the guy who said CNN confirmed this with the NWS. Which the NWS never "officially" stated on landfall.

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

EWRC is definitely completed now, just need to clear out the eye some more and she'll be a beautiful, terrifying beast again. Suspect RI will take place between Cuba and the keys. Scary situation.

[forecasterjack]

GOES16 loop supports the idea that Irma's ERC is done. Dramatically warmer eye, cooler eye wall in the last hour. Bad news. https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play

[SN_Lover]

Irma looks like she has hit a brick wall! Anyone else seeing this? Maybe north turn starting? 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, SN_Lover said:

Irma looks like she has hit a brick wall! Anyone else seeing this? Maybe north turn starting? 

Its probably just doing the usual dancing around land when it senses its close.

[pazzo83]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Its probably just doing the usual dancing around land when it senses its close.

That is honestly some of the most fascinating behavior of these storms.  It's like it can sense the land (and consequent lack of energy from which to draw) and is like, nope.

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its probably just doing the usual dancing around land when it senses its close.

Why does this happen?

[eyewall]

I am seeing wobbles but no distinct turn to the north or even WNW.

[Hoosier]

NHC has it as a category 5 at the 2 AM Sunday position, and a 145 mph category 4 at the 2 PM Sunday position.  So it's pretty clear they are thinking category 4 on the mainland.  What's not as clear is what they think about the landfall on the Keys, since it's between data points.

[Scott Cook]

8 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Well I'll be a noob - that makes a lot more sense!

 

Please forgive the noob question, but doesn't the nearly N/S orientation of the steering current in the last frame mean that the influence on Irma right now is trying to pull or push her nearly north at this point?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

Would it be too OT to briefly mention Lee is warming up in the dugout?

 

Yes. There is another tropical thread for potential Lee

[SN_Lover]

Old Irma eye compared to her brand new one....

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

I understand this I was responding to the guy who said CNN confirmed this with the NWS. Which the NWS never "officially" stated on landfall.

They can't confirm something that's over 24 hours from happening

[Smitty97]

19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This might be slightly off topic, but I am studying the storm surge for Broward county. I have found a SERT map that is county wide, but I am looking to zoom in closer and see particular areas near the beach. 

Having issues locating such a map. We have property in Broward, two blocks west of the water. Would really appreciate any help.

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/  you can scroll around everywhere

[StormFollowerUSA]

Can someone answer this?. When was (if ever) the last time two back to back Major Hurricanes made Landfall in the United States as Catagory 3 or greater storm? 

[canderson]

20 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Thanks. CNN banner says "Irma to hit south Florida as Category 5 storm". Ugh.

[Summey]

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Why does this happen?

I do not know but would guess it has to do air pressure, aerodynamics, and turbulence.  As air, which does have density, piles up against an obstruction (island) then there is resistance.  These storms don't really have momentum, they flow to the area of least resistance so, they move away from the resistance.........my guess anyway.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Smitty97 said:

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/  you can scroll around everywhere

Looks like our prop is at about 9-10 feet. Thank you very much

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Thanks. CNN banner says "Irma to hit south Florida as Category 5 storm". Ugh.

This isn't even a big deal... whether it ends up being a high-end cat 4 or cat 5, who cares? Either way a historic, and memorable storm is <48 hours away from making landfall in the U.S.

[Casualbrain]

2 minutes ago, Scott Cook said:

Please forgive the noob question, but doesn't the nearly N/S orientation of the steering current in the last frame mean that the influence on Irma right now is trying to pull or push her nearly north at this point?

There is a lag between steering currents and storms, but yes - generally the storm will ride the river of winds at steering levels.  The mistake I made is that different atmospheric levels/currents have different effects on varying storm degrees.  The Jet Stream level is the only wind current level strong enough to impact Irma's direction (400-200mb level).

 

[andyhb]

8 minutes ago, StormFollowerUSA said:

Can someone answer this?. When was (if ever) the last time two back to back Major Hurricanes made Landfall in the United States as Catagory 3 or greater storm? 

Two consecutive Cat 4s has never happened in records going back to 1851.