Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Wave break not as quick as forecast?  

Could also be a weakness in model tracks in that area as Charlie came in further to the right of the 12z forecast position also.

[Hoosier]

On a related note, this was a pretty substantial spread on the 12z GEFS in just the first 24 hours of the track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nobody respects the power of land disruption. Put the ICON models down. 

I know you, I and a few other people mentioned that, along with the shear and dry air as it approached the coast, but it was met with a great deal of skepticism to say the least.

I also think that land interaction is more damaging to a system with a well developed core that is in a state of flux at the time of said interaction....as Irma was a cat 5 going through a ERC. 

You just have to factor that in....when I ever saw that downslope derived dry slot develop in the core downwind from that mountain range, my mind was made up.

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big SST drop from 87 to 80 with all the offshore flow as Irma tracked north of the Keys.

It upwelled the waters to it's North Naples went from 88 to 80

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Had it not struck Cuba it likely would have gone over Miami as a Cat 5 because the further east track likely would have coincided with a more east track later as well

Yup....as soon it curved west, the nature of this threat changed.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Very interesting. I never would have thought of that. 

You can see the big SST drop with the strong offshore flow on the bottom of the Naples tide gauge plot.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another tell-tale sign to be leery of major intensification is a CDO that is comprised of banded, striated colder tops....not a solid shield.

Irma had that look when it got near Cuba....I like to see a solid envelop of -70-80c tops.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You can see the big SST drop with the strong offshore flow on the bottom of the Naples tide gauge plot.

 

 

 

May have played a role, but I think it was mainly Cuba and later on the mid levels.

[salbers]

Even though average tide is coming down a bit, the gauge at Naples is now 5.1' above the average. 7.1' above MLLW.

[MikeB_01]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the big SST drop with the strong offshore flow on the bottom of the Naples tide gauge plot.

 

 

 

Thank you. Very helpful

[HoarfrostHubb]

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Despite its somewhat remote location it seems that palm beach to Miami arguably got the worst of it among the big population centers.

I'm sorta surprised by the structural damage I'm seeing in Miami

[bobbutts]

More populated interior areas like Sebring and Winter Haven and Lakeland may see higher winds than expected as the center passes much closer to them than previously forecast and the remaining eyewall comes through.

[Chinook]

Sebring FL 52 mph gusting to 81mph. That's quite a distance from the eye (or former eye).

[CoraopolisWx]

1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

More populated interior areas like Sebring and Winter Haven and Lakeland may see higher winds than expected as the center passes much closer to them than previously forecast and the remaining eyewall comes through.

Yeah, from the current COC motion, those inland locations will be worse than Tampa or Sarasota. 

[LVLion77]

Hopefully the lesson is learned that sometimes the basics need to be honored rather than models and speculation. In this case the basic fundamental principle is that land (cuba in thus case) damages hurricanes. Irma was beautiful prior to interacting with Cuba.


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[jbenedet]

Shortly after Irma's eye passed through Fort Myers I did a back of the envelope approximation of the number of customers without power throughout the state and came to 2.5 million. Averaging 3 people per household, that's 7.5 million people without power as of 1.5 hrs ago...

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Shortly after Irma's eye passed through Fort Myers I did a back of the envelope approximation of the number of customers without power throughout the state and came to 2.5 million. Averaging 3 people per household, that's 7.5 million people without power as of 1.5 hrs ago...

Dade County showed like 900K out of 1.1 million out

[jeffc666]

1 hour ago, CaWx said:

Where was this manatee shot taken at? Hope the water returns soon for those poor things. 

Sarasota Bay, near the Ringling Museum, so right on the border between Bradenton and Sarasota.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Hopefully the lesson is learned that sometimes the basics need to be honored rather than models and speculation. In this case the basic fundamental principle is that land (cuba in thus case) damages hurricanes. Irma was beautiful prior to interacting with Cuba.


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The worst offender was the GFS which still had near or below 900 mb solutions post Cuba.

[bobbutts]

Some damage pics from drone over modulear home park in Naples.  They gave the location, but I didn't write it down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jacindc]

This site says over 3 million without power in Fla.:

https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida

 

[OpenToSuggestions]

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

[MattPetrulli]

No contact with Mike Theiss and Reed Timmer for about 12 hours. Probably due to bad cell reception, hope nothing bad occurred.

[Casualbrain]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

No contact with Mike Theiss and Reed Timmer for about 12 hours. Probably due to bad cell reception, hope nothing bad occurred.

I have friends in Miami who managed to get out a few text messages - no power and no voice cellular, and intermittent text ability in Miami area.
I'm sure the same holds true for much of southern Florida

 

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

Looks like the Keys, which are normally just a small roadbump for a major storm, interrupted the re-intensification process at a critical time.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

That loop also shows that the ingested air never made it to the core, thus keeping it a major hurricane throughout despite the weakening.

[dbullsfan]

i keep seeing the cone from the nws trend northwest but Irma keeps going north, this turb seemingly should have happened hours ago. What is keeping Irma from turning and do yall think she finally starts turning at some point? thanks 

[jacindc]

This is on Marathon. That's some water/wind/debris force to do something like this.

http://wsvn.com/news/local/man-found-dead-inside-truck-wrapped-around-tree-in-marathon/

 

[MattPetrulli]

May finish with a top 10 costliest hurricane in US history when all is set and done regardless of worse case scenarios. 

[EasternLI]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another tell-tale sign to be leery of major intensification is a CDO that is comprised of banded, striated colder tops....not a solid shield.

Irma had that look when it got near Cuba....I like to see a solid envelop of -70-80c tops.

Maybe someone mentioned it and I missed it, but what about the sheer size of the circulation? Much harder to get a large system to ramp up rapidly as opposed to a small one.