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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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3 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

Why? I haven't seen any evidence of sustained winds greater than 115...

Marco Island had sustained winds to 112 mph. That's close enough to confirm Cat 3 status.

Once on land it becomes more difficult to get sustained winds that high due to frictional effects.

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This maybe worse for East Florida and Georgia than Mathew was, especially if Irma doesn't turn back to the west soon.  There was a wobble about an hour ago but it appears to have evened out. The eastern wind-field is only going to expand as the storms energy disperses. Yeah I know it's the NAM but everything is trending this way.

 

namconus_mslp_wind_seus_13.png

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3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

One concern I have, is with the way Irma came in and the worst part of the eyewall E of Naples, is that uniformed public thinking they're away from the water and safe!

I would think that as the eyewall fills in and weakens the sustained winds will be less for the areas around Tampa.

 

 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Looks like it was a sold cat 3 at LF however it was definititely looking better just prior.

Yeah. Didn't the NHC have it at 115 MPH in it's last advisory prior to landfall? 

If the highest recorded sustained was 112, that would seem to be just about the perfect advisory.

I was disputing the "upgraded a tick or two."

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

This maybe worse for East Florida and Georgia than Mathew was, especially if Irma doesn't turn back to the west soon.  There was a wobble about an hour ago but it appears to have evened out. The eastern wind-field is only going to expand as the storms energy disperses.

This is what I was trying to explain to people that were trying to downplay the impacts for SE FL. They might not have had to deal with the EW there, but they still got the strongest quadrant of the storm with a large wind field.

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Tampa will continue its streak of no major cane hits since 1921.  Local mets also expecting a bit less of a surge, 3-6ft, vs the 5-9 warned.  Onshore fetch after Irma passes to the east is going to coincide with high tide, and with all the rain, water is going to pile up but obviously not as bad as expected.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This is what I was trying to explain to people that were trying to downplay the impacts for SE FL. They might not have had to deal with the EW there, but they still got the strongest quadrant of the storm with a large wind field.

I was worried last night my forecast of 50-70 gusts to 90 there was overdone.  It may have been overdone had this tracked 25-30 miles west like the Euro showed because literally all day must off Fort Lauderdale and Miami the rain bands were largely less impressive.  I thihk the slightly more east track hurt them but the structural damage there shouldn't be catastrophic as their winds were less than Wilma in this 

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1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Tampa will continue its streak of no major cane hits since 1921.  Local mets also expecting a bit less of a surge, 3-6ft, vs the 5-9 warned.  Onshore fetch after Irma passes to the east is going to coincide with high tide, and with all the rain, water is going to pile up but obviously not as bad as expected.

At this early hour looks like this is going to be a very expensive storm with lots of damage, but far less than what would have happened from any number of catastrophic solutions shown on models/forecasts the last several days.

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