40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The storm is right on the forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: This is moving almost due West. Thinking Cuba LF chances are on the rise! It's going to be close either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: Some of this damage from the British Virgin Islands is pretty incredible. That is pretty incredible. That scene is coming to the keys if the latest intensity and tracks hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This is probably going to sound dumb, but how will the storm curling around the bottom of the peninsula impact surge? I know with Katrina and Ike they plowed across the gulf, and because of that built up a massive surge in the process. In this case, if Irma were to hit the east coast of Florida directly I'd imagine the impact would be similar, but since it is going to shoot the gap potentially and turn north, would that dissipate the surge, as in the "tsunami" we had with Katrina will dissipate when it curves north? I just touched on this.. With the west trend, the effects of surge destruction grows for Key West and the western peninsula. Irma's modeled forward motion combined with the shape of the Cuban coastline forces sea level rise into the Florida Straits and trench first from all points east. Keep in mind, surge threat was always going to be great given the extensive size of Irma's circulation regardless of the exact landfall position with respect to S. Florida. But when you allow for the large core to come from more southeasterly position across the straits and add a further western component, the right angle turn devestates Key West and points north up the SW Florida coastline. The RFQ flow will focus all that extreme sea level height in the straits from greater depth right across the shallow shelf. That excessive surge has to spread out engulfing the islands. Furthermore, any further westward component adds time for Irma to remain over high SSTs and make landfall while intensifying versus just maintaining a steady state. That will only add to push surge further inland in SW Florida with RFQ onshore flow against the SW coastline. The surge experiences in areas from Naples to Port Charlotte will be beyond anything seen in historical record-keeping for those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's going to be close either way. ULL is racing, but it's in AK and the Irma is about a few hours from LF. Don't think it is going to make it in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Right front quadrant still near Miami...not as directly but still factors in major storm surge - 9+ feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: ULL is racing, but it's in AK and the Irma is about a few hours from LF. Don't think it is going to make it in time. If it does miss the ULL, will that mean NNE track? Not sure what other factors would be in play by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 18z HWRF have Irma just raking the northern Cuba coastline...never really fully crossing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The northern coast and islands in Cuba are extremely flat. Likely partly why many models show very little weakening even though a good chunk of the core traverses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Absolutely....I should have added "in the deeper tropics"....These W or WNW movers, at intensities at or above CAT 3, and then, subsequently modeled to turn earlier than verification seem to display a characteristic that proves the models to have a "too early turn" bias....Maybe it is just a small sample size, but I'm pretty sure it is there.... Gilbert (Cat 5) also failed to make a predicted turn prior to landfall, so it hit Mexico instead of Texas. That's a storm I chased in 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Suncat said: If it does miss the ULL, will that mean NNE track? Not sure what other factors would be in play by then. It will interact with the ULL late, but it will mean a more western track. Maybe a strike on the panhandle? It's out of the question. But I think those in SC, NC, and GA can breathe a sigh of relief on a decreasing chance of a second landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherchaser Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So Cat 5 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: ULL is racing, but it's in AK and the Irma is about a few hours from LF. Don't think it is going to make it in time. The HWRF doesn't have Irma hitting the coast of Cuba for another 9 hours...so maybe she slows down as she feels the ULL before she makes the turn? It looks like she rides the coast for another 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Huge eye is ready to pop out on goes16. Irma would be ready to bomb sub 900 if it weren't so close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This is probably going to sound dumb, but how will the storm curling around the bottom of the peninsula impact surge? I know with Katrina and Ike they plowed across the gulf, and because of that built up a massive surge in the process. In this case, if Irma were to hit the east coast of Florida directly I'd imagine the impact would be similar, but since it is going to shoot the gap potentially and turn north, would that dissipate the surge, as in the "tsunami" we had with Katrina will dissipate when it curves north? The reef around the keys will disrupt the surge that Irma has been carrying along with it. Not sure how much time it will have to build up additional surge when it gets back open over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 18z HWRF puts Key West in the eye at 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Crazy4Wx said: According to this run Key West is either in the eye or eye wall for 6-8 hours. At 160 mph winds...I doubt many structures can survive that. My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, mahk_webstah said: My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure. Do they live on the Ocean side or the Gulf side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Latest dropsonde into the eye records 924mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure. My best friends buddy is in Key West and is planning on riding it out. He is a concrete "hurricane safe" hotel. I told him to plan for the worst night of his life and to make sure he wasn't on the ground floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Amped said: Huge eye is ready to pop out on goes16. Indeed. We've been seeing the nice new eyewall on Cuban radar all day, but the core presentation has remained a bit messy on satellite. Just in the last hour, Irma has managed to throw up a solid cold ring around the new eye, so we may finally see it clear out over the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 HWRF HR30-51 eye remains in the water minus the hit on the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Radar of Irma from a hurricane hunter, about 45 minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Obviously in radar range, but latest MW pass looked fairly good as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, AcePuppy said: HWRF HR30-51 remains in the water minus the hit on the Keys. Then slams into Ft. Myers at HR 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Steering Currents still have not grabbed Irma - hopefully will overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 HMON takes Irma inland of Cuba...will be interesting to see if that happens in the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Casualbrain said: Steering Currents still have not grabbed Irma - hopefully will overnight That is looking at the 700-850mb steering layer for weak tropical storms. Take a look at the 200 to 700mb steering layer for storms under 940mb, such as Irma: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: 18z HWRF have Irma just raking the northern Cuba coastline...never really fully crossing It begins a WNW movement just as it is about to head inland, but it just continues along the outer islands. The HMON still shows an inland move lasting for at least 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This might be slightly off topic, but I am studying the storm surge for Broward county. I have found a SERT map that is county wide, but I am looking to zoom in closer and see particular areas near the beach. Having issues locating such a map. We have property in Broward, two blocks west of the water. Would really appreciate any help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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