SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The Euro track on this was pretty bad. Easily a 30-50 mile error. Even the RGEM which was quite a bit further east too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro track on this was pretty bad. Easily a 30-50 mile error. Even the RGEM which was quite a bit further east too far west 3km NAM had this track on 18z friday. I know it shifted since then, but it had the eye right over Bonita Springs. It looks like that is where it is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro track on this was pretty bad. Easily a 30-50 mile error. Even the RGEM which was quite a bit further east too far west This storm was a perfect example of why NHC uses a cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Anyone have a good site for real time observations? I keep hearing these reports of 130 in Marco and I cant seem to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I don't understand why this Clement guy would think it's a good idea to be in a car right now at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 FLash Flood Emergency for Collier County. Urging vertical evacuation due to Surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Here it comes. Eye about to pass over Naples/Marco Island. After the 130 mph wind gusts (already observed at Marco) comes the wall of water. -5ft surge to +15 ft in just a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The question now is how much of a resistance there is to getting the eye fully onshore, given the track guidance and the frictional effects that were discussed the other day when it was near Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 PDS Flash Flood Warning for storm surge issued from Naples down to Everglades City. "Life-threatening situation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Holy crap Marco Island footage http://www.abc-7.com/category/168380/abc7-live-stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpenToSuggestions Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Strong spot in the RFQ there. Any possibility it went to cat 4 right as it was landfalling here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 3km NAM had this track on 18z friday. I know it shifted since then, but it had the eye right over Bonita Springs. It looks like that is where it is going. It had a run yesterday similar to this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Seeing reports the NWS EYW is offline. SAT/Aus is taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NWS Miami sending out a plea to the Marco Island area: "Evacuate vertically NOW. Catastrophic storm surge IMMINENT". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Onshore winds for storm surge should now be anywhere east of Marco Island and concentrated in Everglades City. Marco Island looks more neutral windwise though the low pressure there could contribute slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tornado warning for Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Strong spot in the RFQ there. Any possibility it went to cat 4 right as it was landfalling here? That is above 2-3k ft. Gusts may be mixing down to the surface however in the eyewall. Sustained wind is likely within the Cat 3 range at the surface. You can always get stronger gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The question now is how much of a resistance there is to getting the eye fully onshore, given the track guidance and the frictional effects that were discussed the other day when it was near Cuba. Not seeing signs of a NW jog yet, looks like it's committing to landfall. Looks like it would end up east of Tampa. Another question is much incremental weakening would we see with the inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 OK - just went through a tornadic (warned) cell here in Melbourne that was nasty. Strong winds and power flashes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Not seeing signs of a NW job yet, looks like it's committing to landfall. Looks like it would end up east of Tampa. Another question is much incremental weakening would we see with the inland track. This is why I was saying I did not believe it would go west of Tampa Bay /Clearwater area like the European had. I hope it even stays near or just east of the city of Tampa. But that is more questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0331 PM HURRICANE 2 ENE NAPLES 26.15N 81.77W 09/10/2017 COLLIER FL MESONET SUSTAINED NE 76MPH WITH GUST OF ENE 115MPH AT MESONET SITE NPLMP AT NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AT 331PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 115mph gust in Naples. 76mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is why I was saying I did not believe it would go west of Tampa Bay /Clearwater area like the European had. I hope it even stays near or just east of the city of Tampa. But that is more questionable. Everyone was saying the same thing on Friday night as she looked like she was going to plow into Cuba. I believe she wil track right along the coast...but I guess we will find out in 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That entire corridor from Marco Island to Fort Myers is going to take a pounding from that eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: Everyone was saying the same thing on Friday night as she looked like she was going to plow into Cuba. I believe she wil track right along the coast...but I guess we will find out in 30 mins She probably will scrape the coast for a time, but having the Eastern eyewall go over Clearwater is way different than over Tampa. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 However, the affect of the surge when the winds do eventually turn west or south west concern me for Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: She probably will scrape the coast for a time, but having the Eastern eyewall go over Clearwater is way different than over Tampa. . Very true. How much surge do you think will roll into Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 If it keeps tracking north like this the population centers of W. Fl will be on the weaker side with the E. eyewall going through sparsely populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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