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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me)

I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct?   Which means this could be even more devastating for them? 

 

Sorry im editing now. Or was it West would be worse?  Ugh- I can't remember which one it was.  But you know my point.. is this current track worse or better for Tampa Bay?

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For the record, can someone explain to me why the surge is not going to exceed 9 feet in Tampa Bay if the eastern eyewall funnels the water up into the bay?

I remain quite concerned about this if we get another NW wobble otlr two.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Just now, mempho said:

For the record, can someone explain to me why the surge is not going to exceed 9 feet in Tampa Bay if the eastern eyewall funnels the water up into the bay?

I remain quite concerned about this if we get another NW wobble otlr two.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

I'm not sure how the surge will be as it looks to go east of Tampa. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me)

I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct?   Which means this could be even more devastating for them? 

Still too early to say specifically for Tampa Bay-wobbles here and there will keep occurring. But they'd want the eye to go east of the bay, which would keep the high surge out of the bay. 

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1 minute ago, mempho said:

Don't they need to be prepared for an outcome that doesn't go east, though? I mean, Tampa Bay is in the cone?

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They already did since models were closer to landfall there. But you asked why isn't the surge higher, and it's probably because it won't be approaching from an optimum angle to maximize surge. At least that's how it looks now.

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3 minutes ago, mempho said:

Don't they need to be prepared for an outcome that doesn't go east, though? I mean, Tampa Bay is in the cone?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

If they aren't prepared now, then they aren't going to be.

Its going to be a close call...could easily wobble west of them.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure how the surge will be as it looks to go east of Tampa. 

Warning product still has 5-8 feet, which was based on a west eye passage.  The GFS and other east passage solutions likely mitigate the surge a bit, but as Irma departs the fetch comes onshore and builds right through high tide Monday morning.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher surge if the track goes West, but it won't be on the extreme end of things.

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000
WFUS52 KMFL 101625
EWWMFL
FLC021-101930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.EW.W.0001.170910T1625Z-170910T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
1225 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT

* At 1223 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated 
  extreme winds above 115 mph, associated with the eyewall of 
  Hurricane Irma, were approaching the coast 10 miles south of 
  Everglades City, moving north at 15 mph. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life-threatening situation!

* Locations impacted include... 
  Naples, Marco Island, Chokoloskee, Golden Gate Estates and
  Everglades City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8140
      2577 8127 2573 8134 2575 8141 2579 8144
      2577 8153 2581 8161 2577 8167 2581 8175
      2599 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 167DEG 11KT 2556 8160 

$$
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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Any reports out of homestead/florida city? I think there would already be considerable flooding from Biscayne bay there considering the <5 ft ASL elevation...

The Homestead Air Reserve Base is especially at risk...

This is the closest working gauge to that area. Seems like our area has a much more extensive tide gauge network as they are further apart down there.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723214

http://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabaymarineweather

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7 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Perplexed.  The southern eyewall has been open for some time now per radar.  I'd never had thought the radar presentation would be such by looking at various satellite products.  Even water vapor which clearly shows the dry air the storm is ingesting doesn't show radar and recon reality.  

 

Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears?

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Just now, Voyager said:

Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears?

Heard that too but even standard NWS radar has presented that way since early this AM for the most part.  

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Ton of lightning in the eyewall once again 

 

iuvuov.PNG

Large band of convection moving up into the Orlando area now (currently in Melbourne) - https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=27.1194;x=-81.4862;z=7;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1;

These bands have been spawning tornadoes in the Port Lucie area.

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears?

I was just able to view KBYX's feed from Radarscope, so I think it's still alive

 

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25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me)

I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct?   Which means this could be even more devastating for them? 

 

Sorry im editing now. Or was it West would be worse?  Ugh- I can't remember which one it was.  But you know my point.. is this current track worse or better for Tampa Bay?

East would be better but based on the 0z euro, and current radar trends, I believe it will pass west of Tampa.

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