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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Latest radar loop looks almost due N movement.  A shift just E of current modeling will bring some pretty good sustained winds into the Orlando area. Last night I was guesstimating 2 million w/o power from this but I may be way low on that number. 

may be low on that number?

1.4 million already without power...FPL expects the total to be around 9 million...

http://cbs12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/when-the-power-goes-out-heres-what-to-do

 

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Lets not talk about shear/dry air anymore. It's irrelevant to the event at this point. It won't inhibit growth, it won't stop the spin, and it won't slow the winds down. Landfall will be around Marco Island judging by the ULL and then it'll go near or over Tampa. The only thing to really watch right now is how the hurricane interacts with the feed from the ULL that has picked it up.

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could be.  I was driving and thought they said the airport but maybe I misheard. 

That was the University. I think I saw a gust of 82mph reported at MIA but I may be mistaken.

Edit: Per NWS LSR:

FAA ITWS MEASURED SUSTAINED 54 KNOTS...62 MPH...
GUSTING TO 82 KNOTS...94 MPH AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT AT 958AM
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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given the current nrly motion for the last few hours, it seems like landfalll could be more towards Marco island. Obviously every little wobble or turn NW is critical, but that's how it looks right now.

Haven't seen Josh's update since last night, but I hope he stayed at APF. 

Edit...looks like he stayed. The surge is going to be nasty there. My old place is going to be half underwater.

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1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Lets not talk about shear/dry air anymore. It's irrelevant to the event at this point. It won't inhibit growth, it won't stop the spin, and it won't slow the winds down. Landfall will be around Marco Island judging by the ULL and then it'll go near or over Tampa. The only thing to really watch right now is how the hurricane interacts with the feed from the ULL that has picked it up.

It's going to be a devastating storm regardless. That being said, a track just to the right of the predicted path looks to be happening, which would bring it onshore near Marco Island and MAY be better for Tampa down the road. Fort Myers and Naples are going to be in the eyewall however and will receive a huge surge as winds come around to westerly behind the eye. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It's going to be a devastating storm regardless. That being said, a track just to the right of the predicted path looks to be happening, which would bring it onshore near Marco Island and MAY be better for Tampa down the road. Fort Myers and Naples are going to be in the eyewall however and will receive a huge surge as winds come around to westerly behind the eye. 

All that matters is the surge. Wind damage is going to be wide spread, and a given at this point. I don't really think even if it was blowing 155 mph on ground it'd matter as much as what the surge actually does in Tampa. It still can intensify further to a high end cat 4- low 5 even looking awkward and asymmetric if it responds to the ULL. Its got about 8 hours to figure out what it wants to do and do it. 

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Fully avoidable. It should have been taken down. I hope no one was hurt.

It takes over a week the only thing they can do is tie it down. You can't divert that much manpower to dismantling cranes when you have to clear out your projects and secure your properties. 

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