Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[jasons]

3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

GFS if verifies, infuriates SE FL evacuees and reshapes Tampa.

Not exactly. It would need to go WEST of Tampa Bay and have a NNE trajectory for that to happen, like what we thought Charley would do.

[78Blizzard]

For much of the day the visible satellite has shown the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames show the eye clearing.

[McQuackleton]

Only going to post through 78 so here's a GIF of the 18Z GFS from 0-78HR

 

[USCG RS]

For much of the day the visible satellite has shown the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames show the eye clearing.

She appears to be beginning to strengthen.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Do you happen to know if Euro shows considerable strengthening as well prior to landfall? 

Yes.  Obviously what happens or doesn't happen with Cuba will matter, as more interaction would mean a lower starting point to have to recover from.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

I'm in full agreement with possible deepening in the Florida Straits, but that really depends on how itcan escape Cuba unscathed.  The satellite presentation at the moment isn't close to what it has been and almost half the CDO is over Cuba.  If it spends any decent amount of time there it'll be really hard for the core to reorganize in time.  We've seen what Cuba has done to past storms.

The Cuba potential damage is being underrated for sure.  If the center doesn't come onshore fully and or doesn't come onshore fully for over 6 hours I'm guessing it loses 15-20kts.  If it does come onshore for 12-18 hours I'm guessing it drops 25-30 easily 

[andyhb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe its just me, but if I would not be infuriated if came back to an intact home.

It shouldn't be just you, but unfortunately that's just how a lot of folks are down there.

[rdcrds4]

The GFS has been the outliner east the most but this run they went back just a hair east of the last run. I never wish a storm on anyone but if this gets into the gulf and comes up to tampa bay well you think the miami track was bad Tampa would be gone.

[USCG RS]

I'm in full agreement with possible deepening in the Florida Straits, but that really depends on how itcan escape Cuba unscathed.  The satellite presentation at the moment isn't close to what it has been and almost half the CDO is over Cuba.  If it spends any decent amount of time there it'll be really hard for the core to reorganize in time.  We've seen what Cuba has done to past storms.

It has steadfastly shown this every single run. This is going to happen, I am certain. What the model may have trouble picking up on is that type of deepening is known to cause wobbles and veering of path. That will be huge.

[bluewave]

The EPS mean lines up well with the OP track.

 

[KPITSnow]

Hasn't really been noted here, but the NHC forecast that bumps up to 160 mph does not track over Cuba, so obviously that will make all the difference.

[Chattownsnow]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

For much of the day the visible satellite has shown the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames show the eye clearing.

It often looks that way as the sun goes down casting a shadow in the eye. That may actually be what's happening. 

[Dunkman]

Strongest piece of data from the NOAA HH so far is a 148kt wind at 850mb on a dropsonde in the NE eyewall. Reasonably supports the 5pm advisory intensity of 135kts.

[mappy]

Before it gets too far; even if the storm goes more west and doesn't hit Miami directly, impacts across southern FL will still be pretty bad. So no talk of evacuations being for naught 

[DCAlexandria]

Before it gets too far; even if the storm goes more west and doesn't hit Miami directly, impacts across southern FL will still be pretty bad. So no talk of evacuations being for naught 

Agree and Miami not even close to outbid the woods yet. Could still easily turn faster than expected. See NAM


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[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Before it gets too far; even if the storm goes more west and doesn't hit Miami directly, impacts across southern FL will still be pretty bad. So no talk of evacuations being for naught 

Right front quadrant still near Miami...not as directly but still factors in

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, jasons said:

Not exactly. It would need to go WEST of Tampa Bay and have a NNE trajectory for that to happen, like what we thought Charley would do.

You mean sort of like how the models continue to trend?

[andyhb]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Cuba potential damage is being underrated for sure.  If the center doesn't come onshore fully and or doesn't come onshore fully for over 6 hours I'm guessing it loses 15-20kts.  If it does come onshore for 12-18 hours I'm guessing it drops 25-30 easily 

Well NHC has it making landfall in the Keys as a Cat 5, so we'll see what happens after it moves off the Cuban coast.

[wkd]

30 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I'd just for once like to be able to understand the synoptic steering currents really well. Hurricanes sometimes undergo a turn that I don't understand. Like here, on the 24 hour GFS 250 mb map, Hurricane Irma's circulation appears to be in an extremely weak steering environment, and yet no hurricane models are indicating a completes stall or a track in random directions. Perhaps these things just like to try to get poleward (north) due to beta advection? Correct me if I am wrong.

 

Won't the coreolis effect cause a turn to their right of its forward motion if other factors don't counteract it?

[Hoosier]

This run even has 925 mb winds of 100 kts in Orlando, which looks like it wouldn't have much trouble mixing down in gusts.  A Charley type impact there is certainly a possibility.  Bottom line is don't think you are safe if you are in a mobile home or other poorly built structure in central Florida, even dead center away from the coasts.

[KPITSnow]

This is probably going to sound dumb, but how will the storm curling around the bottom of the peninsula impact surge? I know with Katrina and Ike they plowed across the gulf, and because of that built up a massive surge in the process. 

 

In this case, if Irma were to hit the east coast of Florida directly I'd imagine the impact would be similar, but since it is going to shoot the gap potentially and turn north, would that dissipate the surge, as in the "tsunami" we had with Katrina will dissipate when it curves north?

[Chinook]

Just now, wkd said:

Won't the coreolis effect cause a turn to their right of its forward motion if other factors don't counteract it?

I think that's called beta advection, or something like this: the coriolis force is better on the north (poleward) part of a storm. That causes the easterly wind on the north side of the storm to overshoot and turn more counterclockwise? Ok, I am forgetting my dynamics here. If somebody wants to explain this, that would be great.

A simple particle released in the northern hemisphere, with no other forces, would make a clockwise turn by the coriolis effect. But weather systems aren't that simple.

[LakeEffectKing]

My experience over 30 years of tracking, these intense TC's have predominately had a verification west of the initial, longer range model outputs (Euro included)....My forecast LF was west of the NHC at the time of my forecast....so I'd score higher that the NHC, wrt their forecast at that time....However, the westward shifting that has occurred in the past with several cyclones (Ivan, Katrina, and others) with the models, is real.  The NHC, and every other forecaster out there, needs to know this, and (unless those that program these models find out why) should incorporate this bias into their future forecasts, at leads of T+72, T+84, T+96...etc....

I'm pretty sure my call will bust too far east....but intensity, and pressure relationship, I feel won't be too far off...

That said, this will be a much larger "eyewall" footprint, and, thus a devastating blow to a lot of S. FLA....

[78Blizzard]

You can really see the size of the circulation expanding on the visible satellite.  The outflow is looking good in all quadrants.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

My experience over 30 years of tracking, these intense TC's have predominately had a verification west of the initial, longer range model outputs (Euro included)....My forecast LF was west of the NHC at the time of my forecast....so I'd score higher that the NHC, wrt their forecast at that time....However, the westward shifting that has occurred in the past with several cyclones (Ivan, Katrina, and others) with the models, is real.  The NHC, and every other forecaster out there, needs to know this, and (unless those that program these models find out why) should incorporate this bias into their future forecasts, at leads of T+72, T+84, T+96...etc....

I'm pretty sure my call will bust too far east....but intensity, and pressure relationship, I feel won't be too far off...

That said, this will be a much larger "eyewall" footprint, and, thus a devastating blow to a lot of S. FLA....

George, it seems like on the east coast they usually end up east of the forecast, but that is at higher latitudes-

[andyhb]

Some of this damage from the British Virgin Islands is pretty incredible.

[SN_Lover]

This is moving almost due West. Thinking Cuba LF chances are on the rise! 

[jojo762]

30 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Does anyone else feel NHC is under doing surge estimates for a strong, large cat 4 hurricane? 

I've thought this ever since I saw the first surge inundation maps.. seems like upwards of 15ft+ could be *possible* in certain surge prone areas.

[HO1088]

Someone mentioned half of the ECMWF ensemble members that show Cuba landfall keep it there for 12+ hours.  

I think that will really chew up this storm, and wouldn't such a large storm with a disrupted circulation be difficult to regain strength, even with very warm water? 

[LakeEffectKing]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

George, it seems like on the east coast they usually end up east of the forecast, but that is at higher latitudes-

Absolutely....I should have added "in the deeper tropics"....These W or WNW movers, at intensities at or above CAT 3, and then, subsequently modeled to turn earlier than verification seem to display a characteristic that proves the models to have a "too early turn" bias....Maybe it is just a small sample size, but I'm pretty sure it is there....