87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What happened on those islands is on a whole other level. yea sustained winds there "looked" like 150mph. the surge and flooding with irma is what i'm concerned the most about with the keys and naples/tampa etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 What happenned in the Carribean was what FL feared. But she lost a lot of steam, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Irma is a different beast right now; you aren't comparing apples to apples. The wind hurricane/ts wind field is enormous right now, and the extremely broad hurricane/TS impacts --to my mind--will surpass Sandy... Irma is like Sandy's more-tropical cousin... We're about to have a bigly wind event on the peninsula mixed with Ike type surge. This is gonna be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NWS report from about 15 minutes ago on Key West (via GRLevel3) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: We're about to have a bigly wind event on the peninsula mixed with Ike type surge. This is gonna be bad. Yes, and just like with Sandy, many people --at the time it was moving in--were underestimating it, saying "low winds/weak radar appearance". The whole eastern half of the system was largely dry. Then when it was all said and done, second most expensive natural disaster in US history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Gust to 106mph in the past hour at Big Pine Key. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=TS607&time=GMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I haven't seen any video from those keys getting hit. I bet those keys got smoked pretty good. But it's also not 185mph sustained. Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed. Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph. That's 50-75mph less than those Islands. Big difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7am on Big Pine I think https://www.pscp.tv/w/1PlKQYyLnYWKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed. Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph. That's 50-75mph less than those Islands. Big difference there. The 0z Euro has gusts all along the west coast of Fla 130-150 mph range, from Naples to Tampa. The euro won't be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed. Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph. That's 50-75mph less than those Islands. Big difference there. it truly is incredible what those islands experienced. because there's not a million people there it doesn't get the attention it should. i can't imagine what it must have been like to have to be literally in the eye of a legitimate cat 5. i mean that's just incredible. anyway, not trying to clutter up the thread comparing what's now to what's done because either way irma is going to be destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Storm Mode is still in effect. There are other threads for Observations, Evaucations, Live Feeds and most importantly banter. Please please please post in the appropriate thread. If you see your posts disappearing, think before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yes, the circulation isn't the best looking right now. But whoever gets into that north eyewall, it will hurt badly. Still holding strong with 50-55 DBZ. Also 9 AM 130/929 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Did we lose KBYX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 0z Euro has gusts all along the west coast of Fla 130-150 mph range, from Naples to Tampa. The euro won't be wrong. Those will be too high in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said: I think there is something else going on there. A pressure of 892 would absolutely transfer sub 900 or around there 60 miles away. No. Pressure gradients are much tighter than that in small hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: 7am on Big Pine I think https://www.pscp.tv/w/1PlKQYyLnYWKE That's on KW, right here: https://www.google.com/maps/@24.5549638,-81.8002242,3a,75y,49.14h,80.75t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sJq0mWuISG946cyd0TCXe5w!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Take it to banter if you wanna argue over observations and what's hurricane forced vs tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those will be too high in general. I disagree. Irma will phase with that shortwave to the northwest and her forward speed will accelerate, with the right front quadrant of the eye wall right along the coast. It's a perfect combination to maximize the wind gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 the eye actually looks rather improved over the last hour compared to when i woke up around 7am. still some time over water, there will be no rapid weakening until over land and/or far enough north to encounter shear that doesn't simply feed into its outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Am I missing something about the track? Euro seemed worst case for Tampa, just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Am I missing something about the track? Euro seemed worst case for Tampa, just to the west. What do you think you're missing? Track is pretty bad, not sure if worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those will be too high in general. any ideas which models have performed the best so far for the keys as far as location/intensity? the 06z gfs track looks pretty reasonable and some of the reports are that it might be a notch east of the euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I disagree. Irma will phase with that shortwave to the northwest and her forward speed will accelerate, with the right front quadrant of the eye wall right along the coast. It's a perfect combination to maximize the wind gust potential. 130-150 all along the coast? They have a hard time with that on the keys. I dunno..that's a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Am I missing something about the track? Euro seemed worst case for Tampa, just to the west. bad analysis taking place. ignore it please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: any ideas which models have performed the best so far for the keys as far as location/intensity? the 06z gfs track looks pretty reasonable and some of the reports are that it might be a notch east of the euro right now. The euro looks a bit too far west. However, sometimes these things meander and then all of the sudden wobble and head in the forecasted direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 9am update from NHC...130 mph sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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