mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Cudjoe Key wind profiler for my work has sustained 110 knots between 2.5-5k feet AGL. Sitting at 80 knots just above the surface. She's coming. Eye should pass overhead unless she wobbles west. I hope the profiler doesn't give out. On the generator backup now. And Cudjoe is not in the eyewall yet. Thre wobble west in the last frame could really help Marathon, though the eyewall will certainly get into the 7 mile bridge coming out of Marathon. Can't find a webcame in the middle keys. Do you have any real time obs near Marathon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jeff Piotrowski was just on Periscope. He's excited. Likes what he sees. He thinks it can get to a 5 before hitting mainland. Shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I already said I was wrong long ago...has nothing to do with that. I busted. Seems to be dry air to the south, and the western outflow is restricted some.The dry air, is that based on radar, heard on the tube that radar is likely not capturing the southern eyewall properly ...idkSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: The dry air, is that based on radar, heard on the tube that radar is likely not capturing the southern eyewall properly ...idk Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well, that could be....hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: And Cudjoe is not in the eyewall yet. Thre wobble west in the last frame could really help Marathon, though the eyewall will certainly get into the 7 mile bridge coming out of Marathon. Can't find a webcame in the middle keys. Do you have any real time obs near Marathon? The only one I can find is Vaca Key on Mesowest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 i see dry air to the north west but nowhere in the south. I also see the vaper trail to the jet. I also see on loop as irma reorganizes she has been tightening up the spread which looks like shear is effecting it until you run the loop and see it all just tightening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'll tell ya, the 1 min imagery has been an absolute pants tent for watching hurricane behavior. What an impressive tool GOES-16 is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The only one I can find is Vaca Key on Mesowest Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm not sure weakening/not weakening is the right debate here. To me, she's going to start looking less and less like a pure tropical cyclone, due to the interaction with the trough and the phasing with that shortwave to her northwest. This is something we more typically see east off the Carolina coast, in/around the mid latitudes. The implications are significantly broadened as a result--the hurricane force wind field will be enormous, particularly on her east side... I think the east coast of Florida is going to be surprised by the amount and intensity of hurricane force wind despite the eyewall passing 100+miles to their west. They also have the background flow and easterly fetch off the open water to maximize the wind impact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: i see dry air to the north west but nowhere in the south. I also see the vaper trail to the jet. I also see on loop as irma reorganizes she has been tightening up the spread which looks like shear is effecting it until you run the loop and see it all just tightening up. Yes, that's fair. Regardless, it definitely looks to intensify more than I had thought....just to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, that's fair. Regardless, it definitely looks to intensify more than I had though....just to be clear. It's creepy when you load up the loop and see her sucking in where everything flattened out and spread from cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Dvorak tumbling again. Now 6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: The dry air, is that based on radar, heard on the tube that radar is likely not capturing the southern eyewall properly ...idk There is probably some attenuation given the amount of water, but overall the 88D has pretty low attenuation levels. Back of the envelope calculations based on where the edge of the eyewall is (roughly 80-85 km) the attenuation could be 3-5 dB or so. So not quite enough to account for such a large area of little to no echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Dvorak tumbling again. Now 6.0 the eye has to contract and pull in the convection before she'll really show what she's about to become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Morris said: Dvorak tumbling again. Now 6.0 It makes sense that some of that is due to interaction with the extratropical system, as opposed to pure weakening..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll tell ya, the 1 min imagery has been an absolute pants tent for watching hurricane behavior. What an impressive tool GOES-16 is. What is the best link to observe this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: There is probably some attenuation given the amount of water, but overall the 88D has pretty low attenuation levels. Back of the envelope calculations based on where the edge of the eyewall is (roughly 80-85 km) the attenuation could be 3-5 dB or so. So not quite enough to account for such a large area of little to no echoes. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ridingtime said: What is the best link to observe this? I like weather.cod a lot. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like some really deep convection completely surrounding the eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would imagine we're getting close to an extreme wind warning for the Keys. We're moving in on the 1 hour ETA of the strongest winds. They just tweeted "Extreme winds are imminent" so I'd assume so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. It could also be shallower convection the beam is overshooting, in between bands of more intense, taller convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It could also be shallower convection the beam is overshooting, in between bands of more intense, taller convection. The situation gets a bit more ambiguous when they interact with midlatitude systems because the days of them looking great are gone...regardless of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Explosion of convection in the eastern eyewall. The eye on current path will pass directly over Big Pine, Sugarloaf, Summerland and Cudjoe Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I don't want to draw direct parallels here but when I was seeing those strong winds yesterday over the SE coast of Florida and near the Bahamas, hundreds of miles from the COC, it reminded me of the weather I experienced the day before Sandy made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 130 mph/929 mb moving NW at 8 mph @ 6:00 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Key West may luck out a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Explosion of convection in the eastern eyewall. The eye on current path will pass directly over Big Pine, Sugarloaf, Summerland and Cudjoe Keys. Yes and on the radar it is bulging again towards the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I don't want to draw direct parallels here but when I was seeing those strong winds yesterday over the SE coast of Florida and near the Bahamas, hundreds of miles from the COC, it reminded me of the weather I experienced the day before Sandy made landfall. I was just thinking of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yeah Key West might get western eyewall and then surge on the backside. But ominous surge and wind anywhere 10-50 miles e of Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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