HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Raw T still 6.4, Final T up to 6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That northern eyewall is going to hit key west head on. Once that band completely wraps around the center I presume we will see quite the increase in intensity over a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 on Radar the IEW is now full closed, bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Msalgado said: The windshear that causes the tornadoes is on a much smaller scale than the wind shear that disrupts hurricanes. A small eddy in the band of a hurricane can produce a tornado. We even saw some supercell like storms when Harvey came ashore because of this. However, windshear in the upper levels on a scale of the hurricane itself distrupts how efficently the circulation can transport heat form the ocean to the upper levels of the atmosphere and thus reduces the strength of the cyclone. Thanks man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 EURO initialized well northeast of last nights run. UKMET came east too BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Everyone focused on intensity, Tampa will be spared mostly with a 15 mile jog east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: EURO initialized well northeast of last nights run. UKMET came east too BTW The RGEM looks pretty good. It does seem to be going more NNW now. Its probably going to skirt the coast for an extended period from about Marco Island on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: 926.1 extrapolated on the latest pass. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Recon showing near 130kt FL and extrap pressure 926. Here it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 SFMR of 111 kts unflagged on this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Okay that pass woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ALhurricane said: Recon showing near 130kt FL and extrap pressure 926. Here it goes... Supports about 135 Max sustained....commensurate with current Devorak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Everyone focused on intensity, Tampa will be spared mostly with a 15 mile jog east. I'm not sure spared is the word I'd use but hopefully the damage lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Last remnants of the inner eye clearing out the last few radar frames. I thinks that's why it's starting to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Euro at 24h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: I'm not sure spared is the word I'd use but hopefully the damage lessened. It's really going to have to jog north for the eye to go east of Tampa. Especially if it goes over Key West. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Multiple 160-170 mph inbound bins at 4-4.5k ft from KBYX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 We have a cat 4, 130 MPH 931 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Can we say a quick rip in peace to the 11 PM intensity forecast by NHC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Upgraded to cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Can we say a quick rip in peace to the 11 PM intensity forecast by NHC? Intensity forecasts are the least accurate for hurricanes... The Keys are in a horrible beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yeah this doesn't look good for Key West. Recon has measured into the 920s in the last few mins. Historical tidbit, other than 1919 and 1935, the Florida Keys might only see a storm like this on average twice a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Goodbye Key West......she's looking great on final approach.....man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Down another mb to 930 mb per recon dropsonde. The extrapolated pressure had a bigger drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 000 URNT12 KNHC 100600 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 10/05:42:30Z B. 23 deg 43 min N 081 deg 16 min W C. 700 mb 2480 m D. 101 kt E. 254 deg 10 nm F. 339 deg 113 kt G. 254 deg 10 nm H. 930 mb I. 11 C / 3051 m J. 19 C / 3049 m K. 14 C / NA L. NA M. C20 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 2911A IRMA OB 14 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 128 KT 049 / 15 NM 05:47:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150 / 5 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ERC definitely complete. Old OEW is now a potent IEW. Sea surface temps and limited shear should allow this storm to continue to strengthen for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Why is it that in the last few frames of this Satellite loop it looks like Irma stops and is thinking about going back to Cuba. What a strange wobble. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, nycwinter said: winds up to 130 now nhc already busted at what they thought might happen This isn't even going to make landfall as a weak category 4. I think the 140-145 predictions sound way more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Like I said 2 hours ago 140-150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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