Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pressure down to 931 mb per the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Single eyewall per recon now. Also temp difference has increased as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like Key West will sustain a direct hit from at least one of the eyewalls from Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 DBZ increase evident in eyewalls, as is a clover leaf appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Single eyewall per recon now. Also temp difference has increased as well. Now that the ERC is looking to be nearly complete, and the core is firmly over open water this is looking like it's go time for strengthening. Eye is firmly entrenched in the CDO, so shear shouldn't be negatively impacting it for the time being. As long as shear remains light, and another ERC doesn't decide to take place this thing should continue to strengthen IMO. How much quicker is the million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: DBZ increase evident in eyewalls, as is a clover leaf appearance. I'm seeing velocity readings on radar as high as 156mph in the eyewall. Beam height is around 7000 feet where those readings are. edit: Since I posted this, two more doppler passes - now multiple 160+ mph readings, high is now 167mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 New Raw T up to 6.4. Appears bombs away for intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tropical Storm Watch now extends all the way to just north of Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Keys are getting smoked by that final intense band that precedes the eyewall.....maybe close to sustained hurricane force there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I'm seeing velocity readings on radar as high as 156mph in the eyewall. Beam height is around 7000 feet where those readings are. Actually see some 160+ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: New Raw T up to 6.4. Appears bombs away for intensification Sorry if this is stupid, what is the raw t and what does it mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Sorry if this is stupid, what is the raw t and what does it mean? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Sorry if this is stupid, what is the raw t and what does it mean? Dvorak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I've been keeping an eye on this NOS station on Vaca Key since the Marathon ASOS went down: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8723970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Station VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Keys are getting smoked by that final intense band that precedes the eyewall.....maybe close to sustained hurricane force there now. How far out do hurricane-force winds extend now? I recall seeing something like up to ~70 miles from the center but that was old information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NHC keeps it at 120 MPH but goes down to 931 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: NHC keeps it at 120 MPH but goes down to 931 MB Surprised they didn't up it to 125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Getting a few spots of 160-165mph at 6500 feet on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 And here's how Irma's T has changed over the history of the storm: source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Surprised they didn't up it to 125 Same here. Don't agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 34G69 at WFO Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The guys at the NHC are awesome. I think they probably wanna see higher flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 34G69 at WFO Key West. Not knowing all the lingo. I stared at your numbers and the best I could come up with was Wind speed: 34(knots or MPH) sustained 69 Gusts. Is that correct ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NE EW seems to have intensified on RAD this hour- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, wthjnky said: Not knowing all the lingo. I stared at your numbers and the best I could come up with was Wind speed: 34(knots or MPH) sustained 69 Gusts. Is that correct ? Correct, sustained 34 knots gusting to 69 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Correct, sustained 34 knots gusting to 69 knots. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 So just saw graphic on TWC how a hurricane creates the wind shear with height that promotes tornadoes.....yet overall hurricanes succumb to wind shear.....it's gotta be a different beast.....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ice1972 said: So just saw graphic on TWC how a hurricane creates the wind shear with height that promotes tornadoes.....yet overall hurricanes succumb to wind shear.....it's gotta be a different beast.....thanks The windshear that causes the tornadoes is on a much smaller scale than the wind shear that disrupts hurricanes. A small eddy in the band of a hurricane can produce a tornado. We even saw some supercell like storms when Harvey came ashore because of this. However, windshear in the upper levels on a scale of the hurricane itself distrupts how efficently the circulation can transport heat form the ocean to the upper levels of the atmosphere and thus reduces the strength of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Maybe they want recon to get another pass or two for the upcoming intermediate advisory? Not sure. Either way the data is starting to illustrate that intensification is ongoing again as the core finishes the most recent bout of reorganization. I don't understand the NHC forecasters tonight. If you're unsure and have conflicting data, especially some that shows a good chance for strong and/or rapid intensification, why so strongly change your forecast? I mean, if the writing is on the wall, that's one thing. But with the situation, why change now? The difference between being wrong now or in the morning is essentially the same. You have egg on your face, but, people are still safe. This isn't a safety issue. But now, you say Cuba won and she won't intensify much, despite saying all along she would. You change your forecast and now the original one is potentially coming to fruition. There's seemingly no benefit. Likewise, they normally go for continuity. I don't understand their thinking tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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