TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah even if it passes off shore the surge with this storm will be major news. A lot of counting chickens before they hatch in here over the last hour. You get 10 to 15 foot surge from Key West to Clearwater you are looking at a historic storm. 10-15 feet is no doubt major news and historic, and would be very damaging. Also first major to hit Tampa since 1921. And it could really do a number on Key West and places like Marco. But there are a lot of factually inaccurate worst case scenario and complete devastation claims being thrown around by the non met or SME posters without any reasoning. It's just getting a bit repetitive and tiresome, especially for people with more skin in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: People seem to be forgetting that Irma also raked a good chunk of the Cuban coast at Cat 5 intensity. Is that not memorable? Yes, it has definitely left an indelible and epic impact throughout the Carribean...no question. I'd wager to say that it has had the largest impact of all-time there. Storm isn't going anywhere....its still a healthy, stable system that will have quite an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Recon encountering some niceeeee winds in the Eastern eyewall 97 kts SFMR. We need the next update in a few minutes. It might go higher, as it didn't compete the eyewall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 At least as of now, the outflow is expanding nicely in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Was she modeled to be moving so slowly? 6 mph she's barely moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 One thing I've learned is that timing ERC is an effort in frustration. However, what I can say is that over the last hour the higher elevation scans that were once clearly and unambiguously depicting two near perfect concentric rings is now showing a dramatic change. The lowest elevation scan is still a little ambiguous though. So maybe the IEW really is finally taking it's last gasp. We'll see. At any rate. I'm a little suspicious of rapid intensification at this point. 0Z SHIPS odds was less than 10%. While I do think the odds are higher than that I don't think they're higher than a coin flip. I do think we'll continue to see gradual deepening though for the next 6+ hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Raw T still at 6.2, Final T up to 5.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 She looks great right now. Cloud tops cooling and convection firing around the eye. Outflow is outstanding and no sign of shear. If she is going to bomb out it is now. This is the moment when we see if she comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 FL winds the highest they've been in a while, ~110kts... in the NE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Satellite and water vapor images from the past hour are the best presentations of the day....still don't see a full banding around the eye yet, but she's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pressure hasn't really budged, 931.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Anyone have that new pass from the recon. Wanting to know the pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: One thing I've learned is that timing ERC is an effort in frustration. However, what I can say is that over the last hour the higher elevation scans that were once clearly and unambiguously depicting two near perfect concentric rings is now showing a dramatic change. The lowest elevation scan is still a little ambiguous though. So maybe the IEW really is finally taking it's last gasp. We'll see. At any rate. I'm a little suspicious of rapid intensification at this point. 0Z SHIPS odds was less than 10%. While I do think the odds are higher than that I don't think they're higher than a coin flip. I do think we'll continue to see gradual deepening though for the next 6+ hours at least. Scary situation. We're already at 932mb and now that the IEW is about finished the OEW will be free to take over and begin intensifying. As it is this storm would already be bad enough, but I fear we should see some additional intensification through the night given favorable conditions. The inner core of the hurricane hasn't been over open water too terribly long. The OEW was scraping the north Cuban coast for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 113 kts SFMR per recon in the NE eyewall. It's flagged though. It might be back to a cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Anyone have that new pass from the recon. Wanting to know the pressure 931.1 was the lowest extrapolated, but winds have gone up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 SFMR supportive of 110kt intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Radar has improved dramatically in last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Observation from recon. 113 kt SFMR is flagged, but the highlighted ones are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 SFMR got a 109kt (125mph) unflagged readin in the NE eyewall. Also had a 113kt flagged reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Scratch what I said earlier, eyewall is really closing off now on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Radar has improved dramatically in last hour. SW eyewall presents significantly better......finally has distanced itself from Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 At least as of now, the outflow is expanding nicely in all quadrants.Yes. Also, latest Sat images show a very clear eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Scratch what I said earlier, eyewall is really closing off now on radar. That appearance of an open eyewall before is likely due to attenuation by precipitation between the radar and the southern eyewall itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Scary situation. We're already at 932mb and now that the IEW is about finished the OEW will be free to take over and begin intensifying. As it is this storm would already be bad enough, but I fear we should see some additional intensification through the night given favorable conditions. The inner core of the hurricane hasn't been over open water too terribly long. The OEW was scraping the north Cuban coast for quite awhile. I think it'll get into the 920's. 910's...not so much, but it is possible if it starts bombing out. The outflow on the west side over the last 3 hours seems to be on the decrease with signs of shearing to the north west. I'm wondering if the shear is going to arrive sooner rather than later. If it's going to bomb out it probably needs to get going in the next 6 hours IMHO. The outflow channel to the north is ripping and Irma is now in the favorable right entrance region of the jet streak. So while I don't think RI is likely...it's definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma really looks to be getting its act together: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You can pretty much see on radar what the new OEW will be after the current OEW finishes taking over shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 101 kt unflagged SFMR in the NW quad so observations supporting a major in both of the northern quadrants now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: 101 kt unflagged SFMR in the NW quad so observations supporting a major in both of the northern quadrants now. That's 5 kts higher in the same quadrant than the first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You can see the 2 eyewalls merging into one over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma really looks to be getting its act together:She's is beginning to look the best she has looked since the Caribbean. The outflow is good in all quadrants. Very cold cloud tops are surrounding the eye. The eye is clear. The eye has a stadium effect to it. She has a moisture fetch from well below Cuba. She looks darn healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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