andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I would certainly much rather read accurate nowcasting information than all of this "it's going to be X intensity at landfall" discussion. I don't think, at this point, that there's going to be much credit given for being right on the intensity at landfall +/- 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm thinking it gets to 145-150. The eyewall is looking good on radar, and not much of the old eyewall anymore, and there's still a lot of time to ramp up to that speed. But the NHC are the experts, not me. And it would be good for SW FL if it doesn't ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: They may be banking on the shear to weaken it but when its in or entering a RI stage it can be harder for that to occur The NHC discussion sketched out a pretty clear and detailed rationale on their intensity forecast. If you and stebo and other mets think it will overcome the contra effects then perhaps it's possible, but a lot of posters seem to just "think" it will happen, and some without any reasoning to support it. NHC for the most part has been doing an excellent job WRT Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I have no clue, I guess if I had a gun to my head I'd say it gets back to 145-150mph at some point. It looks to be ramping back up and the pressure drops will have to matter if the new eyewall takes over. But there's 88-90F water for a while coming up and it could really go to town. We'll see. Yes brother, given all the other variables, I really could see her going for the grand slam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: NHC is essentially saying Cuba won the fight in the end. They don't expect the storm to come back with the force it once had. We shall see what happens overnight. Happens quite often. Its easy to just assume RI when conditions are ostensibly pristine, but once that structure is disturbed......its very tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The butthurt in this thread because NHC says Cat 3 is ridiculous. NHC has been crushing this storm; forgive me for relying on experts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: The 11 pm NHC forecast is what it is. The factors favorable for strengthening have been laid out well in this thread, as well as a reason or two why it may not strengthen so quickly. No point in having a bunch of one liners directed at the NHC. Now we wait. Regardless, NHC will be updating hourly. If it strengthens, they can adjust accordingly. There are legitimate concerns for slower strengthening, just like there are for possibly rapid strengthening. NHC is hedging in the direction all their guidance and experience is pointing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Radar showing 150mph plus now at 7000 ft. I think it's easily on its way back to Cat 4. However, regardless if it stays a 3 or goes to a 4, the major surge is still the big story and will still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Happens quite often. Its easy to just assume RI when conditions are ostensibly pristine, but once that structure is disturbed......its very tough. Yeah it's having a tough time keeping a symmetric CDO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: The NHC discussion sketched out a pretty clear and detailed rationale on their intensity forecast. If you and stebo and other mets think it will overcome the contra effects then perhaps it's possible, but a lot of posters seem to just "think" it will happen, and some without any reasoning to support it. NHC for the most part has been doing an excellent job WRT Irma. You think so? The whole "Irma isn't going to be weakened by Cuba" forecast last night sure hurts their credibility with their forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, williamGD said: You mean the wish casters on here might just be wrong? It's one of those that could go either way. Personally, I'd be a little nervous capping it at cat 3 given recent organizational trends and the overall environment (especially for the next 18 hours or so) but it's not a take it to the bank restrengthening into cat 4... until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pretty good rain squall coming through now. Maybe getting some gusts to 40-45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Which is bizarre based on what we are seeing in the IR Images right now. Not necessarily. She has taken on a much more asymmetrical presentation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffydelusions Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Is it expected to pick up speed? At the 11pm advisory it is said to be moving at 6mph...won't that be a factor in intensifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 30kts of shear is a lot, if it can ramp hard before then it'll have a shot at 150...but if its not there when the high shear starts it won't get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Hurricane Warnings have been extended westward a bit in the Florida panhandle.Looks like they still go to Indian Pass, TS warning to Walton/Okaloosa county line. Did I miss something?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, cwc said: The butthurt in this thread because NHC says Cat 3 is ridiculous. NHC has been crushing this storm; forgive me for relying on experts.... Wait a minute...and I'm sorry I go off on a tangent, and I am not criticizing the NHC...but as of last night, they forecasted the storm to not be really weakened by Cuba, and stay 150-155 mph storm. We also have several METS on here saying they believe this could be about to RI, so I would generally say cool it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CaWx said: IEW weakening and the OEW takening over. 85F+ water temps, not much shear before the keys, a warming eye, and clearing out and strengthening with possible RI. So many things are going for Irma not to reach 140mph again, and honestly I don't get what the NHC is basing their logic on. The OEW has been taking over, the IEW on its last gasp, and the eye clearing out for like 24 hours now.....at some point, its time to entertain the notion of going back to the drawing board. I, along with a few others got flamed for questioning the whole RI concept......but the great paradox with these is that those big, bad azz ferocious cores are very fragile and once a Cuban queefs in the right spot.....the system just stagnates for the rest of its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 TWC just showed the moment when Key West lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 EYW getting some legit Tropical Storm conditions now. Sustained at 40 with gusts to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I can understand their reasoning, I just wonder why they didn't wait and see what is going to happen in the next few hours. They'd look rather foolish if RI did occur soon, regardless of how strong their reasoning was, even if they think RI is a low probability outcome. It's a communication issue too. People may begin to think it won't be so bad, when the potential for worse is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, cwc said: The butthurt in this thread because NHC says Cat 3 is ridiculous. NHC has been crushing this storm; forgive me for relying on experts.. The experts were very wrong last night when they had the wind staying at 150 mph when leaving Cuba. I would say they only have an educated guess at best. Irma will do as she pleases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: You think so? The whole "Irma isn't going to be weakened by Cuba" forecast last night sure hurts their credibility with their forecast now. Yeah I'll throw my lot in with the NHC at this point. They obviously have the expertise and the most advanced data. Think about it. This is the most critical 24-36 hours in Irma's forecast WRT the United States. Do you actually think they would downplay the possibilities of a ramp to cat 4 or 5 if the environment or data suggested so? Data and human judgement are prone to error, and Irma has shown itself to be a unique cane, but I think the NHC would be sending different signals if probabilities suggested rapid intensification that overcomes shear and other variables. If they end up being wrong they surely they will quickly course correct the communications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CaWx said: Don't get me wrong, I have great great respect for the NHC, but I would just like to here their reasononing behind not reaching Cat 4. If Irma was currently experiencing strong shearing, I'd be inclined to agree with their rationale. The reality is Irma isn't suppose to get those destructive shear readings until after passing the keys. Irma is about to strengthen, mark it down. It has all the fuel in the world and a clearing eye, things are going to be very interesting over the next 18hrs. They may just realize that the structure has some critical flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The outer eyewall that took over is looking rather oblong to me right now. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Will be interesting to see if the GFS, as it has for days now still shows rapid pressure falls over the next 12-24 hours as Irma begins her northerly turn thru the straights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 54 mph gust @ PBI in that outer band that is pushing north onto the Treasure Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Looks like they still go to Indian Pass, TS warning to Walton/Okaloosa county line. Did I miss something? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I thought they ended at Leon County before and now go another county westward. I may be incorrect, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Some of us knew last night she would be beaten up by cuba. It is quite simple - land weakens cat 5s and she looked very much changed earlier today. Cat 5s need near perfection to stay intact. Maybe she recovers, who knows, but the casual disregard of the effects cuba would have on the storm were notable.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, tazaroo said: The experts were very wrong last night when they had the wind staying at 150 mph when leaving Cuba. I would say they only have an educated guess at best. Irma will do as she pleases. Intensity forecasting is still very challenging. Models don't do well on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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