bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Running left of guidance again at 0z. Closest to the "NVGI" (Which makes landfall S. of Talahassee and passes just west). edit: center fix posted just above is about 3mi south of where I have Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Winds are still quite low, recon picking up surface winds of less than 95kts near the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Eye is clearing and growing as the IEW erodes... This could really take off overnight and this time there is nothing in its way until landfall to stop intensification outside of a ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I wonder if the stall out will mean a stronger storm, because it had more time to complete the ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, OUGrad05 said: Winds are still quite low, recon picking up surface winds of less than 95kts near the core. They picked up 100kt in SE quad and haven't sampled the NE quad yet. Winds have definitely increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Still held at 120 mph/933 mb at 11:00 pm moving NW @ 6 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like it might have completed the ERC. Radar's fooled me one too many times in the past several min's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 that southern most cam in the keys is back online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, ALhurricane said: They picked up 100kt in SE quad and haven't sampled the NE quad yet. Winds have definitely increased. Yeah I saw that, it updated about 30 seconds after I posted, didn't realize I was that close to getting an update, but still 100kts is low given the CP, the gradient is still fairly tight, I suspect its just the inner core reorganizing. Which the last few frames have really shown some significant improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure I would disagree. It isn't that far from cat 4 and is strengthening. I would be surprised if it doesn't make cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Neither quad recon passed through this time had a second wind max. IEW is about done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Uh... New NHC Forecast never has it getting to Cat 4 now. Their being WAY too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Not sure I would disagree.I'd bet a buffalo nickel we get a flight level reading to support it. Surface maybe not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 in fact the nhc keeps the top wind at most 125 then 120 as it moves inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 135-140 tops imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Uh... New NHC Forecast never has it getting to Cat 4 now. Their being WAY too conservative. NHC even says they are being conservative. We all know how these things go...if she gets a solid eye wall..she will bomb out, just like she did I approach to Cuba. If she doesn't she will be steady state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Quote Mandatory evacuation have been ordered for Levels A and B. Residents in Level B must begin evacuating immediately. Pinellas County - Clearwater area https://twitter.com/PinellasEM wow...can't believe they waited so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 135-140 tops imo Indelibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I have a question, and I'm sorry if this is really dumb. I realize there's a double wind max, and this inner and outer eye wall going on -- but, what stops first wind max from reaching 140-145, and containing itself inside the other outer wind max? No need to ELI5, I've been researching and reading every single post about hurricanes that I could possibly find for the last 12 years, but, that is something that I truly do not understand. I'd really love for someone to explain, if they could. It's a few things, all physics based. But the easiest explanation (which is still correct), is that the pressure gradient force (pgf) is distributed over a larger area. PGF is the force that 'pushes' air particles from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure. So what happens is this.. When the eye wall is the most intense.. It pushes these particles over a smaller area. The eye is constantly able to clear out these air particles (due to the fact that heat rises, while also the fact that the Correalis effect coerces the air particles to spin, thus the eye wall). However, when the outer eyewall develops, this force is distributed over a larger area.Its using the equation f=m(a). The force remains the same, and the mass of the air particles increase, therefore, the acceleration (wind speed) must decrease. Think of this.. Take a windy day and go stand in between two large buildings. When you are standing in between these buildings, the wind speed feels higher. This is because the same amount of air particles are now being funneled into a smaller space. The pressure must increase and therefore the wind speed accelerates. This is the same effect. Standing in between the buildings is when there is one eyewall. Standing not in between the buildings as the secondary eye walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 They may be banking on the shear to weaken it but when its in or entering a RI stage it can be harder for that to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I find it funny FLL 's anemometer is the first one to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm shocked at NHC's latest update. Saying winds might need to be lowered more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffydelusions Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Finally registered after watching these Irma thread(s) for a while now lol. You guys have been very informative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: NHC even says they are being conservative. We all know how these things go...if she gets a solid eye wall..she will bomb out. If she doesn't she will be steady state. The NHC says they are conservatively LOWERING the wind to 105 kts, suggesting they may need to lower it further depending on what the new recon plane finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The 11 pm NHC forecast is what it is. The factors favorable for strengthening have been laid out well in this thread, as well as a reason or two why it may not strengthen so quickly. No point in having a bunch of one liners directed at the NHC. Now we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NHC is essentially saying Cuba won the fight in the end. They don't expect the storm to come back with the force it once had. We shall see what happens overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: NHC is essentially saying Cuba won the fight in the end. They don't expect the storm to come back with the force it once had. We shall see what happens overnight. Which is bizarre based on what we are seeing in the IR Images right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 11 pm NHC forecast is what it is. The factors favorable for strengthening have been laid out well in this thread, as well as a reason or two why it may not strengthen so quickly. No point in having a bunch of one liners directed at the NHC. Now we wait. You mean the wish casters on here might just be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Hurricane Warnings have been extended westward a bit in the Florida panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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