Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided. True, but a strengthening cat 4/5 landfalling in Tampa is perhaps only marginally less devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided. Miami scenario was avoided, but Tampa is arguably more vulnerable and less prepared overall. Less people, but still. They don't have any recent experience with major hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Click on the link it shows current Yea I know. Isnt is something to do with the forum software. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-10 has minute scans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: True, but a strengthening cat 4/5 landfalling in Tampa is perhaps only marginally less devastating. Particularly since Tampa is less prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Quickly approaching 200,000 outages. https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, DoctorMu said: Particularly since Tampa is less prepared. Yeah, and extremely susceptible to surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: True, but a strengthening cat 4/5 landfalling in Tampa is perhaps only marginally less devastating. The shear may prevent a landfall that strong, though. Looks like it depends on how far north Irma gets before turning inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, DoctorMu said: Particularly since Tampa is less prepared. They know the risks however: http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, tacoman25 said: The shear may prevent a landfall that strong, though. Looks like it depends on how far north Irma gets before turning inland. It may. We'll just have to see. Matthew certainly shrugged off comparable shear, but each storm is different. Only thing hampering intensification right now is internal structure. That external consideration doesn't come into play until sometime tomorrow, as I understand. If that IEW does dissipate, it's all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: They know the risks however: http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/ It hasn't translated to code and structural engineering changes... ...and surge right up the bay would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Per latest radar, still seems to be drifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Have 2 friends that live on St. Martin, still haven't heard anything from them. From what I hear that island will take a decade to be rebuilt. Irma has created implications for the cruise lines that already have their itineraries in place for upcoming trips. Many of them stop in St. Martin and St. Thomas, both of which have been devastated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 It looks like the turn might be real now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 winds back down again. 10:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9Location: 23.5°N 81.0°WMoving: WNW at 7 mphMin pressure: 933 mbMax sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1000 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS... A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES $$ Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, AcePuppy said: winds back down again. 10:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9Location: 23.5°N 81.0°WMoving: WNW at 7 mphMin pressure: 933 mbMax sustained: 120 mph That is odd. Almost makes it look like the last advisory was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I've lived in South Florida and now in St. Petersburg. The Tampa Bay area is VERY unprepared for a major hurricane compared to South Florida. There is a general better awareness of hurricanes, more urgency with preparations, and a lot more of the housing stock has hurricane shutters, impact resistant windows etc in South Florida. Look at the massive lines for gas and supplies in south florida compared to Tampa Bay. Today when I left St. Pete I could still buy gas or any groceries I wanted. That's with us right in the middle of the cone! Yesterday as I spent 15 straight hours boarding every window of my house, my neighbors stood by and chatted. As far as I could see, I'm the only home on my street that was boarded up. In South Florida, that's unheard of. Everyone I know in South Florida has shutters or impact windows or plywood. No one over here has experienced an Andrew, so they don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, KPITSnow said: That is odd. Almost makes it look like the last advisory was wrong? Yeah a 1 hr update for a 5mph bump seems silly, must have been an error last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah a 1 hr update for a 5mph bump seems silly, must have been an error last update. I think it is going to waiver as it organizes. Cloud tops cooling. I think we will see it strengthen overnight the more it gets away from Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Sorry but can someone give me link for ADT # estimates? Also when is the next recon flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah a 1 hr update for a 5mph bump seems silly, must have been an error last update. NHC put out a statement earlier that they would be releasing updates every hour, regardless of changes to help better inform people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, allgame830 said: Sorry but can someone give me link for ADT # estimates? Also when is the next recon flight? Recon flight is moving in to the storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Sorry but can someone give me link for ADT # estimates? Also when is the next recon flight? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Recon flight is moving in to the storm now Thanks for that... is there plan to fly in all night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Band moving into Keys likely contains sustained hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Sorry but can someone give me link for ADT # estimates? Also when is the next recon flight? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like the eye has started warming a bit on IR. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-0-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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