gpickett Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Hernando Beach, Horseshoe Beach and Steinhatchee seem taylor made for storm surge disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: The next 18 hours should be bombs away....I think Irma gains 20mph and falls 30mb+ before landfall. George, sticking with your original LF call of 145? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 My radar estimated fixes vs. the NHC track. Just a few miles off course so far, but still increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How would the surge projection for Tampa change with the center going just west instead of over/east? I saw that simulation that had 25+ feet of water with a cat 5 moving NNE, but this isn't quite that scenario. The real surge wouldn't be until the eye is past and the wind turns westerly, but it would probably be 10ft or more when that happens. It goes right into the bay which focuses the surge and the land around Tampa is very flat. The eye might go over St. Pete which would be devastating. The absolute worst Tampa case is a NE moving storm going north of the bay, which would drive the surge NE into the bay, but this scenario with Irma is bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The next 18 hours should be bombs away....I think Irma gains 20mph and falls 30mb+ before landfall. The next 18-24 hours will also largely define our memories of this storm - she's sure been an amazing storm to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: George, sticking with your original LF call of 145? Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just want to say that ERC's are a bit of uncharted territory in tropical system meteorology, even the best mets don't know exactly when it'll begin or wrap up (just remember the previous ERC and the really long discussion that ensued) I see a lot of people speculating about it and I think that it doesn't contribute to the discussion and confuses people that are trying to learn (like me), or just trying to get correct info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, danstorm said: There's been a ton of "NW turn" hallucinations in the last 24 hours but those last few radar frames feels like the real deal. Almost like it wobbled SW briefly and bounced into the turn N. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SteveVa said: Just want to say that ERC's are a bit of uncharted territory in tropical system meteorology, even the best mets don't know exactly when it'll begin or wrap up (just remember the previous ERC and the really long discussion that ensued) I see a lot of people speculating about it and I think that it doesn't contribute to the discussion and confuses people that are trying to learn (like me), or just trying to get correct info Nice thing is that we might learn more about ERCs from Irma than any previous storm, just because of how well it has been covered by modern radar through the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 quick question: didn't Charley strengthen rapidly as it came up the coast? I seem to remember it going from a cat 2 to a cat for in one 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm seeing widespread 120mph velocities on radar now...close to the eye when this morning , there were only a couple. definitely strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The next 18 hours should be bombs away....I think Irma gains 20mph and falls 30mb+ before landfall. Has there ever been a hurricane at or near 900mb that wasn't classified as a cat five? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, danstorm said: The next 18-24 hours will also largely define our memories of this storm - she's sure been an amazing storm to track! If it didn't hit the US, it'd certainly be retired for its effects on the Leeward Islands though. Those were definitely historic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: quick question: didn't Charley strengthen rapidly as it came up the coast? I seem to remember it going from a cat 2 to a cat for in one 6 hour period. Yes and it was blowing up going onshore man any more time over water Charlie could had been a 5 went from a Cat 1 to 4 in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: quick question: didn't Charley strengthen rapidly as it came up the coast? I seem to remember it going from a cat 2 to a cat for in one 6 hour period. It did. It went from 95 mph to 125 mph in 6 hrs. Made it up to 130 mph at landfall. Also dropped almost 30 mb in that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, danstorm said: There's been a ton of "NW turn" hallucinations in the last 24 hours but those last few radar frames feels like the real deal. Not as many as the "IEW last gasp" delusions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Has there ever been a hurricane at or near 900mb that wasn't classified as a cat five? Yup. Wilma after the first ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Seems like RI is beginning, pinhole eye starting to pop with convection on IR around the eye cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: If it didn't hit the US, it'd certainly be retired for its effects on the Leeward Islands though. Those were definitely historic as well. Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, danstorm said: Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin? I believe they will retire that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 IEW getting a better look on radar now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, danstorm said: Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin? Well they've rebuilt after major canes before, but this was a devastating blow. They'll recover, eventually, like Grenada did after Ivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not as many as the "IEW last gasp" delusions.... the IEW legitimately looks like its finally giving up. Though the process always takes longer than one expects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Dry air on the western flank starting to encroach. She looks a lot better in the center though. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-200-1-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: Yup. Wilma after the first ERC. Ah, I had forgotten about her. Without looking, I thought perhaps Katrina during it's ERC on approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 It'll strengthen back to a strong Cat 4 before reaching the Keys, I'm pretty confident of that. It doesn't have far to go wind wise to get there, there's bath water in that area, and the sat/radar presentation is impressive enough. It'll also get easier as it pulls away from Cuba. Cat 5 is a stretch, but it will have a good amount of time over warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Up by Tampa, shear will become a hindrance on Irma and weaken it, which is reflected in the NHC projection, but beforehand it won't do too much. Strong hurricanes can also fight it off for a while. By the time it gets to near Tampa it will be way too late to weaken it meaningfully enough. Look how much Katrina weakened before landfall and how catastrophic it still was. Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: Well they've rebuilt after major canes before, but this was a devastating blow. They'll recover, eventually, like Grenada did after Ivan. Have 2 friends that live on St. Martin, still haven't heard anything from them. From what I hear that island will take a decade to be rebuilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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