jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It'll have to start north pretty soon to really make landfall and go into the FL Peninsula. At this rate it might go over or even west of Key West. From there, even due north wouldn't make it east of Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Band coming into Marathon may bring first bout of hurricane/strong TS conditions. https://gyazo.com/473025f5898416538abcaf443e4018f2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like the budge to the NW may finally be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Every time I think the inner eyewall is on it's last leg, it keeps hanging on. Run at cat 4 intensity is looking a little more questionable right now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 That "southernmost" Key West webcam seems to have bitten the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, thess said: That "southernmost" Key West webcam seems to have bitten the dust. New link for that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Every time I think the inner eyewall is on it's last leg, it keeps hanging on. It always seems to be like this in every hurricane. You know what they say though "It ain't over till its over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You can really see the outer EW forming on the echo tops radar image. Higher cloud tops are starting to congeal around the eyewall as the towers are going up. It's almost like a real time IR loop. Thinking as this starts to steal moisture from the inner wall, we'll see the eye open up on IR and the inner wall deteriorate. Probably will be early morning hours before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It'll have to start north pretty soon to really make landfall and go into the FL Peninsula. At this rate it might go over or even west of Key West. From there, even due north wouldn't make it east of Tampa Bay. Yeah, she is west of her forecast points at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I want to see what happens when these cold cloud tops exploding around the center right now get wrapped all the way around. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-48-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Moving only 7mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I think strengthening will commense once the oew leaves the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092352 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 43A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 80.8W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the Suwanee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana * Andros Island, Bimini, and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 80.8 West. Radar loops indicate that Irma has temporarily slowed down, but the hurricane has been moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) since earlier today. A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and should be near the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Irma's intensity is a little lower, and the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Marathon International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 932 mb (27.52 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 4 to 6 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Very little north component to her motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Down to 120 mph for 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9Location: 23.3°N 80.8°WMoving: WNW at 7 mphMin pressure: 932 mbMax sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Reed Timmer's Live feed in Key West: Edit: Well he was live, but he's in Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Rainfall potential (as of 8 pm) - not insignificant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Major damage in Tortola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNovice Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, winterymix said: Yeah, she is west of her forecast points at this time. I apologize if this is a dumb question but at what point will other influences, other than those the models have factored, begin to change her course? Is it possible for Irma to fake everyone out and enter the GOM? And one last question, IF that happens, what then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Seidel certainly getting smacked with a squall right now in Miami. The explosion of cloud tops on IR to the east of Miami in recent minutes is quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That 11-15 foot surge for Marcos Island, Naples, Ft. Myers, and Cape Coral is going to be absolutely catastrophic for such a beautiful area... Historic, life-altering, culture-altering, and economically devastating event for a large part of the western coast of Florida. Surge in Tampa bay/St petersburg could be extremely significant as well depending on the exact track of Irma down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: No it's not. It's only 5 mph from being a cat 4. This was a very irresponsible post. Down to 120 mph currently and inner eyewall is holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said: I apologize if this is a dumb question but at what point will other influences, other than those the models have factored, begin to change her course? Is it possible for Irma to fake everyone out and enter the GOM? And one last question, IF that happens, what then? already forecasted to enter GOM and hit anywhere between Ft. Myers/Tampa (currently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 TWC has great coverage from Florida. Mike Seidel is in Miami now. It is getting very bad out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Harvey did this for awhile too...oew struggled to take over, and when the IEW finally gave out, harvey went from I think a 100 mph storm to 130 by landfall. if the IEW clears, a good chance this blows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Southern eye wall has really exploded on IR in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said: Down to 120 mph currently and inner eyewall is holding strong. It was in the process of spinning down and the pressure was dropping. That just does not reverse instantly. There's no question she is better organized than this morning. The winds will respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said: I apologize if this is a dumb question but at what point will other influences, other than those the models have factored, begin to change her course? Is it possible for Irma to fake everyone out and enter the GOM? And one last question, IF that happens, what then? The NHC will adjust the cone of uncertainty if needed. Be patient and wait for the 11 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 HillsdaleMIWeather I want to believe Irma has started W/NW but I just don't see it in the IR images i have. Its been over half hour now and all i see is W motion and even jogs W/SW. Are you still seeing it gaining latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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