NavarreDon Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I'm just catching up on the thread and I'm surprised to see posts about the Panhandle as a possible landfall. What's the reasoning behind this? Is it being confused with the Big Bend area? NHC has some particularly strong wording in the latest discussion as follows.The track guidance continues to be tightlypacked, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over theFlorida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHCforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given thegood agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast ishighSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 heres a vid of the PDS TOR in Ft lauderdale. Probably the most wimpy PDS warning ive ever seen. That's because that isn't that tor. The warning was for inland a bit, not in the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 had a little wobble south of due west there for a moment, seems to be resuming a wnw track now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon is headed for the eye, this should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: I'm just catching up on the thread and I'm surprised to see posts about the Panhandle as a possible landfall. What's the reasoning behind this? Is it being confused with the Big Bend area? NHC has some particularly strong wording in the latest discussion as follows. The track guidance continues to be tightly packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is high Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think the panhandle talk is mostly concerned with the Big Bend (Tallahassee) area specifically, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Another from the beach in FLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Outer eyewall is tightening. The south drift has ended, however I can't see a definitive north motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 ECMWF showing the eye of Irma directly over Key West tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zipperbaum Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, TPAwx said: 18z GFS track better for Tampa than 12z Euro. Onshore fetch as Irma departs would still bring water rushing in the Bay, but likely less impactful than Euro with west track. As someone who lives on the bay...I would take that right now. If Irma moves West and no further than 40 miles out, the amount of water being pushed through the bay will be historic. My house will be underwater. Long time lurker by the way...I love this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 930.4 extrap on latest pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Winds have been pegged at 125 but has recon found any winds that high in the past few hours? Just found 104kt FL winds in the eastern outer eye wall. Extrap pressure of 930.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Another confirmed large/dangerous tornado, Lauderhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 PDS Tornado on the ground Plantation heading west @35mph towards Sunrise/Weston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 From my POV the IEW has really decayed a lot on KBYX in the last 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HWRF 18z impacts - 850mb winds - 136kts over Tampa; 169kts over the keys. How much will mix to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Winds have been pegged at 125 but has recon found any winds that high in the past few hours? Just found 104kt FL winds in the eastern outer eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Just found 104kt FL winds in the eastern outer eye wall. Any storm chasers in key west besides Mike thesis? If so link please. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Probably need the ERC to complete and the southern edge of the OEW to get off the coast before the winds come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 934 mb w/9 kt wind on VDM. so pressure is steady for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 "Ground clutter" showing up by that sunrise tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knight_raven Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Coopdog said: Any storm chasers in key west besides Mike thesis? If so link please. Thanks https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu Reed's out in the Keys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 000 URNT12 KWBC 092320 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 09/23:06:34Z B. 23 deg 19 min N 080 deg 48 min W C. 700 mb 2525 m D. 93 kt E. 033 deg 11 nm F. 121 deg 104 kt G. 040 deg 17 nm H. 934 mb I. 13 C / 3063 m J. 19 C / 3082 m K. 14 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO12-25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 16 MAX FL WIND 104 KT 040 / 17 NM 23:02:30Z SEC MAX FL WIND 88 KT; BRNG:047 deg RNG:81 nm CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 310 / 09 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You can still see some of the inner eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Latest recon fix with due west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Not saying it is going to happen but the 18Z GFS is the best news us here on the west coast have got. Yes it means nothing but it is hope. I wonder which model is more on point at this time the gfs or euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 hours of satellite shows due west as well. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&type=Animation&numframes=50&zoom=1&quality=100&palette=ir6.pal&width=1400&height=1000&lat=26.0&lon=-83.0 Radar is the same direction. When will we see the turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaglesnest Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, williamGD said: Not saying it is going to happen but the 18Z GFS is the best news us here on the west coast have got. Yes it means nothing but it is hope. I wonder which model is more on point at this time the gfs or euro. The 18Z has it slightly more east, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deaglesnest said: The 18Z has it slightly more east, right? That is what i show yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, salbers said: 4 hours of satellite shows due west as well. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&type=Animation&numframes=50&zoom=1&quality=100&palette=ir6.pal&width=1400&height=1000&lat=26.0&lon=-83.0 When will we see the turn? What happens if the turn is really late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 As storm intensifies from the east, maybe this dry air pocket and westward convection movement will be enough force for a wobble. It's so huge, creating its own momentum etc http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.