donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: If Irma is interacting with this piece of energy dropping in the Gulf, it's track should be more west. The path is also strange considering steering patterns. I would go landfall Florida panhandle.[/img] 70% of the hurricanes that passed within 65 nautical miles of Irma's 2 pm position made landfall in southwest Florida. 20% made Panhandle landfall. If you look closely at the chart, many of the hurricanes that made landfall on the Florida Panhandle passed south and/or west of Cuba (with some crossing the Island). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 At this point I'd go for a FL Panhandle hit also, the main question being how far west of Tampa the center goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 (Sorry problems with previous post) This image is cool. Much more likely track further west, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, salbers said: At this point I'd go for a FL Panhandle hit also, the main question being how far west of Tampa the center goes. Not surprising, she's continuously been west of forecast track. GOM is pretty juicy right now...that would be bad for intensification but the panhandle is less populated than the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Far enough west that core misses Tampa would definitely be better, also, shear should weaken Irma before any panhandle landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 IEW is about to disintegrate and give way to the OEW per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Definite NW motion towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 radar track suggests westward motion has slowed somewhat and is not reaching the latitudes that models forecasted. Could be a wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I live just NE of Tampa bay. Didn't think the storm would come this far West. Currently have all windows boarded up and all loose objects outside taken care of. I'll be sure to get some video/pictures of what happens. It would be incredible if it made landfall through Tampa Bay and gave us a view of the inside of the eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Not surprising, she's continuously been west of forecast track. GOM is pretty juicy right now...that would be bad for intensification but the panhandle is less populated than the west coast. It would have to swing a decent amount off track though. Given Irma's size, riding 20-30 miles off the western coast before landfalling farther north isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Definite NW motion towards the end. Looks to me as though the energy from our trough in the NE is swinging out allowing possible a slightly further E track of the S/w in MS/AL region. Should be interesting to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The satellite loop suggests the upper low is diving a bit SSW of the GFS 300mb low position. This may delay the turn though not forever. If Irma stays W of Tampa the storm surge could still be quite significant since landfall wouldn't be weakening it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: IEW is about to disintegrate and give way to the OEW per radar. Seeing this as well. Outer eyewall looks to be closing off with deeper convection at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like towers going up on the NW side of the OEW. I think outer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty lame so far here in Juno Beach. the showers that do pass through produce very heavy rain. Getting some pictures from friends south of me of some minor tree damage. Friends north of me on the treasure coast were getting a lot of rain but even that has subsided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeTheissKey West chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Tor Warning downtown FLL. Moving West 70mph- WFOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Eye continuing to warm as outer eyewall tries to assert its dominance. Notice warming in the E of the inner eyewall. 1 min IR: https://weather.us/satellite/812-w-236-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Some dude on WPBF from Palm Beach is running from a funnel cloud. Search for streaming video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: KBYX is reported at an elevation of 8 meters. Anyone know off hand what are the maximum winds a wsr88d can withstand? I tried to find this but it doesn't appear to be published. Nexrad radar is designed to withstand 134mph sustained winds (60 m/sec sustained) wind per design docs: https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/NTR96.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You can see the first signs of a big, new eye trying to carve out on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 PDS Tornado warning in Broward County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 NWS Miami Tornado: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Miami FL 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017 FLC011-092300- /O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170909T2300Z/ Broward FL- 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY... At 640 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Lazy Lake, or near Fort Lauderdale, moving west at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Village Park, Broadview-Pompano Park and Palm Aire around 645 PM EDT. Sunrise, Tamarac, Margate, Lauderhill and North Lauderdale around 650 PM EDT. Plantation and Sawgrass Mills Mall around 655 PM EDT. Coral Springs around 700 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fort Lauderdale Beach, Intersection I-595 And I-95, Broward Estates, Boulevard Gardens, Markham Park, West Ken-Lark, Riverland Village, North Andrews Gardens, Roosevelt Gardens and Terra Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: link? http://www.wpbf.com/nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 heres a vid of the PDS TOR in Ft lauderdale. Probably the most wimpy PDS warning ive ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z GFS track better for Tampa than 12z Euro. Onshore fetch as Irma departs would still bring water rushing in the Bay, but likely less impactful than Euro with west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Late day visible image. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: heres a vid of the PDS TOR in Ft lauderdale. Probably the most wimpy PDS warning ive ever seen. The PDS tornado was in Oakland Park, a bit more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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