HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 5 pm update - I will be pretty impressed to watch this storm run the length of Florida and still get a hurricane gusts into Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I will be pretty impressed to watch this storm run the length of Florida and still get a hurricane gusts into Atlanta. That was my first thought wondering if it would still be hurricane strength all the way into southern Georgia... ALTHOUGH the cone offers the potential for Irma to scoot just off the coast and go straight up to the panhandle, and in that case, you would definitely have hurricane force winds if it came in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On radar, it is moving so slowly, perhaps 8mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Pretty significant pressure drop over the last few hours, the winds haven't responded yet but should start to increase as the evening progresses. I think they'll struggle to respond until we sort out that IEW. Until then pressure may continue to steadily fall, but currently thinking winds will wait to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, dan11295 said: That track is terrible for the entire West coast of Florida, just rakes them with the RFQ/Core with the center just offshore/just inland. It's going to suck. IMO the worst case scenario at a state/national level will be avoided with MIA/Dade/Broward and then up to GA/SC not getting crushed by those various runs from a few days ago. Looking for bright spots where possible. Still could see some east wobble for the track and a bit less of a disaster, but the window is shrinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncocean985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Apparently Irma managed to pull in a lot of water around the Bahamas, check this video. I would have never thought that would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 12 hours or so until landfall. Thinking 140-150 MPH winds when it hits. 12 hours? More like 20 or 25 unless you think it's going to turn more north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Marathon Key's 5 pm report: NE winds at 41 mph with gusts to 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, TPAwx said: It's going to suck. IMO the worst case scenario at a state/national level will be avoided with MIA/Dade/Broward and then up to GA/SC not getting crushed by those various runs from a few days ago. Looking for bright spots where possible. Still could see some east wobble for the track and a bit less of a disaster, but the window is shrinking. Having the right eyewall of a likely strong cat 4 rake the entire west coast of FL and some heavily populated areas from Tampa south is a pretty close second to the Miami area landfall. The surge is also more devastating on the west FL coast. If the eye really does go over Tampa Bay, the surge coming in behind it with SW wind will be terrible. The best case at this point would be a sharper north turn that brings it onshore a little east of those cities, but that's looking less and less likely. And the E FL impact will not be negligible-those are some strong bands east of the center that will bring tornadoes and 80-90 mph gusts, along with 10"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 My guess is a direct hit on Key West 05z at which time 918 mbs 140 mph, then dropping to 910 mbs west of Naples around 13z, landfall near Port Charlotte 18z. cat 4 and possibly cat 5 briefly offshore. Too close to call for max impact Tampa Bay, would assume the worst and hope for a last minute inland push, track will only take the core inland 5-10 miles by Sarasota and that means eyewall over Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Pretty healthy looking storm after being over land for 15 hours. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't believe it ever made true landfall outside barrier islands. It certainly was impacted by the coastal brush, but it always had some part of its eye over water throughout the journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: 12 hours? More like 20 or 25 unless you think it's going to turn more north?? Keys will be landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z GFS comes a little east from 12z run through 24. A welcomed site for the panhandle crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Keys will be landfall? Yeah if you count the keys, but they won't really weaken the storm so could continue intensification past the keys pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, beanskip said: 18z GFS comes a little east from 12z run through 24. A welcomed site for the panhandle crew. Sounds like this will be better for Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Welp, was east through 24, but zigged back West at 30 and 36, vs. 12z. Might even come close to reemerging in the Gulf at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: Yeah if you count the keys, but they won't really weaken the storm so could continue intensification past the keys pretty easily. Max winds will be keys and yes they do count for landfall. Shear will disrupt as it heads north for second landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 While we did avoid a worst case scenario for Miami-Fort Lauderdale, let's not forget that the west coast of Florida is heavily populated, well over 4m people within 70 miles of the coast from the Everglades up to Spring Hill, north of Tampa. Cape Coral - Fort Myers MSA: 722,336 people [this includes down to naples] Tampa - St Petersburg: 3,032,171 people [includes the coast and clearwater] Polk County (Lakeland and environs): 666,149 from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: Sounds like this will be better for Tampa It's basically in the same spot or even a few miles west as it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looked to be a hair SW of 12z at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Max winds will be keys and yes they do count for landfall. Shear will disrupt as it heads north for second landfall. Will shear disrupt or keep Irma in check? Big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Likely will see major destruction from wind and surge in a region from Tampa to Naples. Those saying worse case scenario was avoided need to think before talking. This is pretty much worse case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Max winds will be keys and yes they do count for landfall. Shear will disrupt as it heads north for second landfall. That's a real close call regarding the shear being enough to disrupt it in time... Also partially depends on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 KBYX is reported at an elevation of 8 meters. Anyone know off hand what are the maximum winds a wsr88d can withstand? I tried to find this but it doesn't appear to be published. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Ignoring the absurd intensity values, it was stronger than 12z overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 IEW is holding strong. Whatever intensification that occurs may be pretty gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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