andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This would be good news for FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Could definitely be a kind of "chicken or egg" effect.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-12-017.1#/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-12-017.1I will end after this with this discussion, I don't want to take away from Irma. But this is also a really good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I think once irma gets far enough away from the coast the otter eye will take over. Irma is too large of a storm to sustain a pinhole eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, salbers said: Movement on satellite over past 4 hours looks like about 300 degree heading. Would aim about to Key West unless the turning continues. 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Watching that radar loop she's really heading NW now, pulling away from Cuba and taking aim on Key West. Been checking movement on radar since salbers post and it has stayed right on the same course since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 In 3 hours: T# 2017SEP09 161536 5.1 2017SEP09 191535 5.7 Color me impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: In 3 hours: T# 2017SEP09 161536 5.1 2017SEP09 191535 5.7 Color me impressed. Up to 5.8 now: ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 09 SEP 2017 Time : 191500 UTC Lat : 23:11:09 N Lon : 80:16:16 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 5.9 5.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Based on my research of past hurricanes, and barring a pretty significant last minute shift, Irma is likely to produce the worst hurricane conditions that the Tampa area has experienced at least since Donna in 1960, and possibly before. This would be with a relatively steady storm or modest restrengthening prior to landfall, let alone more significant restrengthening. Given the population growth over the years, there is a very high probability of this becoming a benchmark storm in terms of wind and/or surge damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: What were those? Not sure why it was deleted, but I don't feel the current structure is conducive to RI...not saying no intensification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Here's a great webcam view of Mallory Square in Key West: https://youtu.be/OUhXfVNW-Jg That's on the NW end of the key: https://goo.gl/maps/d2gNNwuzRMk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Great website for seeing track/radar overlay. https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions Eyewall is slightly right of the center path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, andyhb said: This would be good news for FL. It's likely gets back to 140mph but I would be surprised at this point if it went beyond that. In the end the NHC forecast from 4 or so days ago will be close on landfall strength in Florida when they showed 125-135 or so coming into Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, historic climatology favors a strong landfalling hurricane in southwest Florida. Coupled with Irma's current strength, the Florida Straits' ideal waters for intensification, and the modeled deepening, I believe that Irma will very likely be a Category 4 storm (145 mph maximum sustained winds) at landfall. Since 1851, 10/13 (76%) of August/September hurricanes that passed within 65 nautical miles of Irma's 2 pm position made Florida landfall. 7/10 (70%) made landfall in southwestern Florida, 20% on the Panhandle, and 10% in southeastern Florida. Of those that made landfall in southwestern Florida, 2 were Category 4 storms and 1 was a Category 5 storm. On the weaker side, 3 were Category 1 storms and 1 was a Category 2 storm. Irma is currently a strong Category 3 storm. The SSTs and modeling all argue for strengthening. The radar presentation has also improved from this morning and the central pressure has dropped a little. If the GFS is right, explosive deepening should take place starting tonight. Great info don. I was looking over the storm track of Charley in 2004. It moved from south to north over Cuba as a cat 2-3 went down to a cat 2 after Cuba and went to a cat 4 at landfall near Punta Gorda. Those warm SST's can do some rapid healing and with little to no shear it is very possible for Irma. also, Charley was moving at 25mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It's likely gets back to 140mph but I would be surprised at this point if it went beyond that. In the end the NHC forecast from 4 or so days ago will be close on landfall strength in Florida when they showed 125-135 or so coming into Miami I agree...this is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon down to 933 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 extrap pressure down to 933.1 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 000 URNT12 KWBC 092020 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 09/20:06:42Z B. 23 deg 13 min N 080 deg 27 min W C. 700 mb 2543 m D. 94 kt E. 359 deg 16 nm F. 084 deg 99 kt G. 359 deg 22 nm H. 935 mb I. 12 C / 3060 m J. 19 C / 3065 m K. 15 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO15-30 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 06 MAX FL WIND 99 KT 359 / 22 NM 20:01:26Z SEC MAX FL WIND 85 KT; BRNG:360 deg RNG:65 nm CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 25 KTS Sfc wind was 25kt, so 933/934mb is probably the most reasonable, pretty close to extrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 down 4 mb to 935 per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Extrapolated pressure down another 4mb. Looks like a stronger outer wind max may be showing up on FL winds. Expect winds to slowly increase as the inner core reorganizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Dropsonde pressure is almost always 2-4 mb higher than the extrap pressure, but the extrap pressure is down 4 mb compared to the last recon pass. That's a pretty good drop in that short distance between passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Tropical storm conditions spreading inland KMTH is at 40 MPH gusting to 55 MPH Mesowest station VCAF1 is at 40 MPH gusting to 51 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty pronounced double wind max on that FL wind trace. May see the IEW spin back up pretty quick before getting halted by steadily strengthening OEW. Wouldn't shock me to see this ERC take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said: Up to 5.8 now: ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 09 SEP 2017 Time : 191500 UTC Lat : 23:11:09 N Lon : 80:16:16 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 5.9 5.9 Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It doesn't have to strengthen much to be a strong Cat 4 again. Another 10-15mb drop and 20 mph wind increase brings it to 145mph. It's certainly doable in time it has left. It's not coming back from a Cat 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Part of the OEW is still over land, so that's unlikely to really take off until more distance from Cuba is achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Broad wind field (less impressive pressure gradient) may make it difficult to achieve the high end 4 wind speed wise again, but that's not going to matter much when it comes to the surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I don't think it's too early to hoist some tornado watches for South Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said: Up to 5.8 now: ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 09 SEP 2017 Time : 191500 UTC Lat : 23:11:09 N Lon : 80:16:16 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 5.9 5.9 Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, ALhurricane said: Extrapolated pressure down another 4mb. Looks like a stronger outer wind max may be showing up on FL winds. Expect winds to slowly increase as the inner core reorganizes. 12z GFS had it @ 947 mb @ 18z and 941 mb @ 00z, so intensifying at a faster rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, cut said: Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, cut said: Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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