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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Tropical Headquarters

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

What a difference 25 miles is going to make for Tampa Bay.  Center goes just east of the city then its a strong north wind that drives water out of the bay.  Yes it comes back in as the center passes.

Center goes just west of the city then the strong south wind  (RFQ with wind)  drives everything into the bay.  As storm passes wind veers to west even making things worse.  Time of high or low tide will make a slight difference.  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I believe the pressure last night was 924 mb.  It then rose to 941 mb earlier today. I think it's probably safe to assume that 941 is the high mark until it gets to Florida, especially since it has already deepened a little.  So a 17 mb pressure rise from last night but a good 35 mph hit to the maximim sustained winds.   

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I believe the pressure last night was 924 mb.  It then rose to 941 mb earlier today. I think it's probably safe to assume that 941 is the high mark until it gets to Florida, especially since it has already deepened a little.  So a 17 mb pressure rise from last night but a good 35 mph hit to the maximim sustained winds.   

This is still incredibly impressive. While it was never deep into Cuba, it did spend hours and hours over land. Does anyone know the total time over the barrier islands/Cuba? 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 18:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 18:30:41Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°08'N 80°14'W (23.1333N 80.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 statute miles (110 km) to the N (11°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,579m (8,461ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 26° at 92kts (From the NNE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed 
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the E (88°) from the flight level center at 18:35:03Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 9kts (From the E at 10mph)

Importantly the eye looks to be warming
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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Question: would concentric eyewalls limit the strengthening? 

It all depends on how long it takes the cycle to complete. In general, the theory is it does; however, the storm has shown over the Atlantic that ERC were not slowing her down. I wrote a theory about it in the other thread... But in general the thinking is possibly.
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jasons

jasons

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3_2/

There is also GRLevel2 for Level II data. I use both. 3_2 is nice because it automatically loads the backgrounds for you. GR2 provides better resolution but you have to upload your own backgrounds, old school. Now if he would just re-write GR2 to have those backgrounds too...

FWIW that's how I got the LSR out of MIA Int'l. They pop-up immediately. You can add all sorts of data points and overlays, including models and the NHC forecast. I tend to use GR3_2 for all the data points (winds, warnings, etc.) and leave GR2 clean with just my radar feed.

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TPAwx

TPAwx

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a difference 25 miles is going to make for Tampa Bay.  Center goes just east of the city then its a strong north wind that drives water out of the bay.  Yes it comes back in as the center passes.

Center goes just west of the city then the strong south wind  (RFQ with wind)  drives everything into the bay.  As storm passes wind veers to west even making things worse.  Time of high or low tide will make a slight difference.  

Deleted a post as it was GFS.  Euro has a west passage.  The NNW trajectory is not as worse as a NNE, but it's splitting hairs.  This is really bad as modeled.  As noted a few miles will make a big difference.

IMG_2693.PNG

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Question: would concentric eyewalls limit the strengthening? 

It could, several previous studies mentioned in this paper (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00349.1) suggest that an outer eyewall can reduce the outflow region of the inner eyewall and thus reduce convection in the inner eyewall. This process has been linked to eyewall replacement cycles. In any case, I think it is important to note that intensification is generally easier when there is a single, highly organized eyewall. If you look at the radar image below, you can see that the inner eyewall is still a bit ragged and surrounded by a secondary eyewall.

20170909_1910_kbyx.thumb.png.1e3a248c7e13e2e792b837b1d3aab861.png

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Deleted a post as it was GFS.  Euro has a west passage.  The NNW trajectory is not as worse as a NNE, but it's splitting hairs.  This is really bad as modeled.  As noted a few miles will make a big difference.

IMG_2693.PNG

That waters going to come rushing into the bay fast when the eye crosses.

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dbullsfan

dbullsfan

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Correct.  I'll post this again for the worst case scenario with the track snip below,  Irma is extremely bad, as *modeled*.  But premature in terms of absolute impact as the track could still shift, and that will have huge implications for Tampa.

the Weather Channel just did a live shot from my street.

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

 

IMG_2691.PNG

Damn that almost goes right over my apartment, I'm in between Clearwater and New Port Richey, this model isn't that likely though compared to a more southern landfall correct?

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mostman

mostman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Damn that almost goes right over my apartment, I'm in between Clearwater and New Port Richey, this model isn't that likely though compared to a more southern landfall correct?

That's a simulation of a potential worst case. Notice the storm name and date. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

FWIW, historic climatology favors a strong landfalling hurricane in southwest Florida. Coupled with Irma's current strength, the Florida Straits' ideal waters for intensification, and the modeled deepening, I believe that Irma will very likely be a Category 4 storm (145 mph maximum sustained winds) at landfall.

Since 1851, 10/13 (76%) of August/September hurricanes that passed within 65 nautical miles of Irma's 2 pm position made Florida landfall. 7/10 (70%) made landfall in southwestern Florida, 20% on the Panhandle, and 10% in southeastern Florida. Of those that made landfall in southwestern Florida, 2 were Category 4 storms and 1 was a Category 5 storm. On the weaker side, 3 were Category 1 storms and 1 was a Category 2 storm. Irma is currently a strong Category 3 storm. The SSTs and modeling all argue for strengthening. The radar presentation has also improved from this morning and the central pressure has dropped a little. If the GFS is right, explosive deepening should take place starting tonight.

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dbullsfan

dbullsfan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mostman said:

That's a simulation of a potential worst case. Notice the storm name and date. 

gotcha we are sitting at 12-15 MPH sustained with probably 20-25 mph gust I'd say right now. Noticeable change but nothing like what it will be like in 24 hours.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
It could, several previous studies mentioned in this paper (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00349.1) suggest that an outer eyewall can reduce the outflow region of the inner eyewall and thus reduce convection in the inner eyewall. This process has been linked to eyewall replacement cycles. In any case, I think it is important to note that intensification is generally easier when there is a single, highly organized eyewall. If you look at the radar image below, you can see that the inner eyewall is still a bit ragged and surrounded by a secondary eyewall.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff6dc37bf6861d3fe13b6bfee4885e41dff1aa83c48abe70d920170909_1910_kbyx.thumb.png.1e3a248c7e13e2e792b837b1d3aab861.png

Other papers have actually argued that the outflow of the inner eye wall is what forces a secondary eye wall also.
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