Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 fwiw, the 12z RGEM seems like it did a good job initializing location and it has Irma ping ponging on/off the coast from around Naples northward, with more of a move off the west coast near Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, the 12z RGEM seems like it did a good job initializing location and it has Irma ping ponging on/off the coast from around Naples northward, with more of a move off the west coast near Tampa. The RGEM has been showing that for awhile with the herky jerky movement along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon just found the pressure about 940 mb. (extrap plus a few) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon just found the pressure about 940 mb. (extrap plus a few)Also max FL winds in NW quad of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon just found the pressure about 940 mb. (extrap plus a few) They found a 937.1 one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon just found the pressure about 940 mb. (extrap plus a few) disturbing to say the least especially with so much warm open water ahead. as someone said, it looks like a cat 4 and that pressure would indicate it's right there at cat 3/4 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Worst case for Tampa would be a LF near Tarpon Springs, like the 1921 storm, just north of the bay. Have to thread a needle for that to happen. And yes, as the WaPost Article illustrates, Tampa is one of the top surge-prone metros in the in the US. I remember back in the 80's (or 90's), Roy Leep (retired) from WTVT did a TV special about this. Tampa Bay, NOLA, NYC, & Houston-Galveston are the 'big 4' potential worse cases. Other places like Savannah, Charleston, Mobile, etc. are very vulnerable too, but there isn't as much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Previous recon was 941, but you have to figure it went up a few mb after that, so some re-strengthening has likely begun. One question, how far north does the shear get high enough to cause Irma to start to weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Initialized too high though. Again, relative pressure trends (drop/no drop and by how much?) are more important. The Euro has consistently been much too high with pressure readings. Edit- Sorry for duplicate post. Site crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Already a 75mph gust at MIA Int'l. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Dropsonode was 939 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon fix showing 939mb, 2mb lower than last fix of the previous mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Recon fix showing 939mb, 2mb lower than last fix of the previous mission. With a 9kt wind on the dropsonde so actual pressure is probably about 938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, jasons said: Worst case for Tampa would be a LF near Tarpon Springs, like the 1921 storm, just north of the bay. Have to thread a needle for that to happen. And yes, as the WaPost Article illustrates, Tampa is one of the top surge-prone metros in the in the US. I remember back in the 80's (or 90's), Roy Leep (retired) from WTVT did a TV special about this. Tampa Bay, NOLA, NYC, & Houston-Galveston are the 'big 4' potential worse cases. Other places like Savannah, Charleston, Mobile, etc. are very vulnerable too, but there isn't as much there. Correct. I'll post this again for the worst case scenario with the track snip below, Irma is extremely bad, as *modeled*. But premature in terms of absolute impact as the track could still shift, and that will have huge implications for Tampa. the Weather Channel just did a live shot from my street. http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Wind shear will effect the storm before it gets to Tampa, models have been showing this the entire time. HWRF has done the best with landfall pressures this year and is initialized well shows 925mb for the florida keys, around 933mb at Port Charlotte landfall and around 945mb when it crosses Tampa ay. Assuming it doesn't touch land until Tampa, I'd put the landfall pressure somewhere in the 935mb-940mb with winds in the 120-140mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Question: would concentric eyewalls limit the strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon data shows no indication of concentric eyewallsVDM specifically stated that it does have concentric eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 From recon: M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) From Radar: Lets use our heads people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Wind shear will effect the storm before it gets to Tampa, models have been showing this the entire time. HWRF has done the best with landfall pressures this year and is initialized well shows 925mb for the florida keys, around 933mb at Port Charlotte landfall and around 945mb when it crosses Tampa ay. Assuming it doesn't touch land until Tampa, I'd put the landfall pressure somewhere in the 935mb-940mb with winds in the 120-140mph range. You're expecting pressure to remain steady state until landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Someone posted this last night as a guess but it was likely correct. They said the small mountain range area near 80W in Cuba seemed to be causing the weakening and that continued til the center itself cleared 80W. Once it did however it seemed the strengthening immediately started despite the fact the back side of the circulation still is east of 80W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: You're expecting pressure to remain steady state until landfall? Right? I think we will see the pressure keep dropping. Even if some wind shear is present. Those warm waters will induce deep convection and deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 091853 TCUAT1 Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...IRMA MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ... SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 80.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cat 5 as it hits Key West? 925mb pressure, close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Right? I think we will see the pressure keep dropping. Even if some wind shear is present. Those warm waters will induce deep convection and deepening You can't just ignore the effects of wind shear like it doesn't exist, despite the fact that Matthew stayed healthy last year even under significant shear. Warm water can't overcome everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Right? I think we will see the pressure keep dropping. Even if some wind shear is present. Those warm waters will induce deep convection and deepening I'm really not concerned with wind shear. We've seen plenty of strong canes shrug off the kind of modest shear Irma will experience. I believe Matthew went cat 5 last year despite some westerly shear. Joaquin strengthened with fairly strong shear, if memory serves. This is an exceptional system with an almost ideal environment. Once it gets well clear of Cuba, I won't be surprised if it goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She looks like she is barely moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Is Irma still carrying Cat 5 storm surge with it, or would that have been diminished from its impact with Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, jasons said: Already a 75mph gust at MIA Int'l. Where did you see this? I can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: Where did you see this? I can't find it. NWS Miami LSR: A wind gust of 75 mph was recorded at the Miami International Airport South Terminal Site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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