Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[Memphis Weather]

8 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Just a caveat to remember prior comments not to take GFS pressures quite literally.  Focus on the rapidly deepening trend.  Even with that caution this is concerning.

Exactly. Nobody should be running with a sub 900 pressure but there is a clear trend for intensification. And IR imagery very clearly shows that the inner core has been relatively undisrupted which means once the broader circulation is offshore and fluxes are back to being more directly ocean-based...there's not much for at least a steady deepening up to the keys if not farther.

[HKY_WX]

The CDO started exploding literally the minute it got off Cuba. That's a pretty good indication the inner core is fully intact. This storm is a beast mayne.

[CheeselandSkies]

First U.S. tornado warning associated with Irma out for the Everglades City area.

[forecasterjack]

5 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

I asked this question in the other thread, could someone please answer, trying to prepare

Could someone tell me if this is possible and tell me how much raine please, i am in the red area 

To figure out how much rain is likely at your place, go here: https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble and type in your town. Then you'll be able to compare all the ECMWF ensemble guidance for rainfall, wind gusts, and other parameters. You'll be able to see the mean, max, min, and 10th/90th percentile forecasts for each parameter to show you the range of possible outcomes. It looks like you could get quite a bit of rain!

[Indystorm]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

First U.S. tornado warning associated with Irma out for the Everglades City area.

Yes, and SPC now has a tornado watch out for all of south Florida and the Keys until Midnight.

[MattPetrulli]

Nice banding developing/coming into range with the CDO. Eyewall and circulation are also increasingly looking better. 

[Memphis Weather]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents

Surge Map just updated post 11a Advisory and predictably has gotten much more dire for SW FL as well as Tampa area.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Nice banding developing/coming into range with the CDO. Eyewall and circulation are also increasingly looking better. 

The Cuba exit is pretty apparent now on radar and sat imagery. 

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Just a caveat to remember prior comments not to take GFS pressures quite literally.  Focus on the rapidly deepening trend.  Even with that caution this is concerning.

This.  The guidance showing rapid deepening is seeing something.  Nobody knows for sure how deep or just how much the winds will respond, but there is a solid window of time over the bath water.  

[Amped]

2 hours ago, Lookout said:

a little different though...Ike had a lot more interaction with cuba...it went across/interacted with.. the entire length  of cuba...

 

 

FWIW, right now irma is a bit north of the 0z euro last night...and if it continues on this path it would be significantly north...not in miles per se but just the fact the euro had irma actually fully inland over the next few hours. The reason i find this is interesting is that irma might/should be in a little better shape than the euro showed it to be when it moves away from cuba which is important i think considering how much the euro restrengthens it...929 mbs at landfall. 

 

 

 

 

GFS was way faster with the 12z track. This may have been one of the reasons.

[Master of Disaster]

10 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

First U.S. tornado warning associated with Irma out for the Everglades City area.

HUH? There were two this morning alone. 

[wxsniss]

Judging center from radar, Irma would have to track south/southwest from current position to be at the 2pm position depicted by the 0z Euro (which had it roughly 20 miles inland, between Morón and Ciego de Ávila)...

[Master of Disaster]

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Oh. Didn't know that.

Yea Collier County about 9am or so. 

[audioguy3107]

If you look at the last several frames of the AVN satellite loop, The CDO is literally exploding in size as well, it contracted quite a bit over the last 12 hours, but seems to be rapidly expanding in size as well as intensity.  That didn't take long.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This.  The guidance showing rapid deepening is seeing something.  Nobody knows for sure how deep or just how much the winds will respond, but there is a solid window of time over the bath water.  

And some past hurricanes have deepened explosively over the Florida Straits.

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I could swear the last few frames of the Key West reflectivity loop it's hooking back to the left (toward Cuba), but that might just be a mirage caused by the rotation.

There will be wobbles but the general turn is starting.

[Rtd208]

Irma is really starting to look good on the Goes-16 IR as she pulls away from Cuba IMO.

[USCG RS]

If you look at the last several frames of the AVN satellite loop, The CDO is literally exploding in size as well, it contracted quite a bit over the last 12 hours, but seems to be rapidly expanding in size as well as intensity.  That didn't take long.

The cloud Tops are really cooling as well. Her core is in very good shape. There is no sheer to speak of. The outflow is good in all quadrants. Of course water Temps. She is primed for RI.

[Quincy]

14 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Yes, and SPC now has a tornado watch out for all of south Florida and the Keys until Midnight.

Yeah, the tornado threat is really going to ramp up tonight. Low to mid level wind profiles will become increasing favorable tonight and a nocturnal tornado threat will be a major concern. An outbreak of relatively short-lived tornadoes seems like a realistic possibility tomorrow over central/South Florida given the degree of low level shear and favorable positioning on the right side of the storm's track. 

12z 3km NAM:

[wkd]

HRRR doesn't appear to have done too well on their 15Z run.

[jpeters3]

Analyzed shear looks very weak at the moment, which may be why models are indicating a bout of rapid intensification.

 

[wxsniss]

In addition to being at least 20 miles north of where 0z Euro progged for 2pm, current location of Irma is on the northernmost end of 0z EPS members.

[bobbutts]

Clearly looking better organized last few hours.  If I extrapolate the track from the radar last few hours it's heading just about directly at Key West.

[JerseyWeatherGuys]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

11 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

If you look at the last several frames of the AVN satellite loop, The CDO is literally exploding in size as well, it contracted quite a bit over the last 12 hours, but seems to be rapidly expanding in size as well as intensity.  That didn't take long.
 

The cloud Tops are really cooling as well. Her core is in very good shape. There is no sheer to speak of. The outflow is good in all quadrants. Of course water Temps. She is primed for RI.

 

[jacindc]

Helpful graphic from cranky:

 

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

In addition to being at least 20 miles north of where 0z Euro progged for 2pm, current location of Irma is on the northernmost end of 0z EPS members.

Happened with Mathew last year around the time it hit this latitude. I don't know if this will shift the landfall point but it's certainly hitting florida a few hours sooner than expected.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Have been watching the convection and it really started firing up once the eye cleared the coast of Cuba - https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=25.2265;x=-79.6598;z=6;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

[csnavywx]

Amazing how well it is coast-following. There's still enough of a westward/southward steering component left to keep it close to the coast once the torque component weakens. This behavior should end once it rounds the bend near La Teja.

[f2tornado]

1 hour ago, mudaddict said:

That's 850 guys  

But that's only 46mb above the (likely over-zealously modeled) 896 core. Basically accurate for the top floors of taller skyscrapers near the core. Tampa has many. The NHC will commonly note to prepare for one SS category higher in hi-rise buildings. 

[winterymix]

Movement away from the Cuban coast is very slow so far but the northward expansion of the CDO is explosive.

I wonder if the NNE expansion hints at at shift very slight toward the right for the next few hours.