psv88 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Next few frames are key. If she continues just north of west at the current 280*, she won't go inland, and should be moving away from the coast in 3-4 hours. If she wobbles west again she's going to take an even bigger hit. Gotta watch the next few frames to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The HRRR Caribbean is currently updating the 12z run. It's out to 25 hours. Still showing Irma with a really big eye towards the end of the run. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/CARIBBEAN/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 ECMWF forecast IR vs actual GOES-16 IR at 11 AM. Irma farther north than forecast. ECMWF, even with excessive land interaction, brought Irma back to a cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Troublemakers coming on to derail the thread, ignore. I don't think Irma will have an problem restrengthening once moving further away from Cuba, currently thinking high end Cat 4 heading into a Florida landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 ECMWF forecast IR vs actual GOES-16 IR at 11 AM. Irma farther north than forecast. ECMWF, even with excessive land interaction, brought Irma back to a cat 4. Those cloud tops are cooling BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I bring up the NAM not for its predictive value, but because the 12k and the 3k pose an interesting comparison - and are the difference between a major problem and a huge problem, respectively. Both interact with cuba until about midnight tonight, and both then head due north. But simple wobbles on the 3k shift the track west over time, meaning a landfall nearer Tampa and up into the panhandle, while the 12k brings it inland south of Marco island, meaning Irma weakens over land much quicker. I don't think either model is forecast worthy, but the point is that it's a very tight angle of approach to Florida, and probably more a matter of nowcasting than model guidance even 24-36 hours out. 20 miles makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like it will scrape the coast for the next couple hours. Might see it degrade further in that time frame. Curious to see how she holds towards early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 1 minute ago, forecasterjack said: ECMWF forecast IR vs actual GOES-16 IR at 11 AM. Irma farther north than forecast. ECMWF, even with excessive land interaction, brought Irma back to a cat 4. Those cloud tops are coming BTW. They've been cooling all morning in fact! Also becoming more symmetric in the overall CDO presentation. GOES-16 loop: https://weather.us/satellite/791-w-221-n/top-alert-superhd-5min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Seems like a due north wobble from my point of view last frame or 2, anyone else observe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Remember when the GFS showed Irma hitting NYC for about ten runs in a row and the Euro was insisting on the Carolinas? Pretty amazing how areas NE of GA might not experience much impact at all. I still think we could possibly see a last minute Easterly jog, and one of the reasons is that the winds associated with the incoming trough will be out of the Southwest. So initially Irma should move a bit NNE before eventually getting captured by the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, forecasterjack said: ECMWF forecast IR vs actual GOES-16 IR at 11 AM. Irma farther north than forecast. ECMWF, even with excessive land interaction, brought Irma back to a cat 4. Yea I noticed that as well. She's very close to avoiding a landfall on Cuba proper. That would be a game changer. Looks like as soon as the eye goes back over open it water she looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 am update - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: 11 am update - They need more forecast points. Going from Major to depression is pretty not helpful to Georgians etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: 11 am update - Unfortunately a lot of people in NW FL probably thought they were relatively safe. At least this track keeps SE FL in manageable hurricane force winds rather than extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 They've been cooling all morning in fact! Also becoming more symmetric in the overall CDO presentation. GOES-16 loop: https://weather.us/satellite/791-w-221-n/top-alert-superhd-5min.html#play Yes, and she's yet to hit open water. People forget how rapidly she deepened in the Atlantic. In under 24 hrs she went from winds of 120 to 175. The water is not as warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, olafminesaw said: They need more forecast points. Going from Major to depression is pretty not helpful to Georgians etc. It's time plotted, Irma should accelerate WNW eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like a possible devastating hit for Ft Myers coming, love that place so much. Such a nice area with nice people. A lot of elders reside in Ft Myers. Buildings there are well built, stone houses that will be put to the test. Ft Myers beach doesn't have very much well built houses, seemed pretty storm surge prone when I was there. Worrying about a devastating impact to Ft Myers beach and the Ft Myers area. Have family there that has evacuated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The High-Res NAM keeps Irma over the the Gulf warm waters as a major hurricane from the Keys to the Panhandle. If you live anywhere in Florida, leave now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 IR satellite presentation has looked better in the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 let's also not have a short memory... harvey was reduced to nearly a swirl of clouds and we all saw what it was able to accomplish in a 24 hour period under the right conditions.Harvey? Lol Charley went entirely over Cuba and strengthened from 100 to 145 in that spot in just 3 hours. That area is the ultimate hurricane truck stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 looks like it is getting stronger at the moment http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-bd-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Eye now almost fully over water apart from mainland, this will get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: What bothers me is that we all knew based on the models that it was going to potentially scrape or make LF in Cuba and de-intensify, yet people still freaked out. What worries me is that I always read from mets that a strengthening hurricane is a lot more dangerous than a weakening one and it looks like we'll get just that. Just stop. This is so wrong. Katrina was a weakening hurricane at landfall. So was Sandy. Ike and numerous others that had destructive impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 In case this comes in handy tomorrow: Rank Hurricane Season Landfall pressure 1 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa) 2 Camille 1969 900 mbar (hPa) 3 Katrina 2005 920 mbar (hPa) 4 Andrew 1992 922 mbar (hPa) 5 "Indianola" 1886 925 mbar (hPa) 6 "Florida Keys" 1919 927 mbar (hPa) 7 "Okeechobee" 1928 929 mbar (hPa) 8 "Great Miami" 1926 930 mbar (hPa) Donna 1960 930 mbar (hPa) 10 Carla 1961 931 mbar (hPa) Source: HURDAT,[1] Hurricane Research Division[2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: She won't go to a 4 while the eye is completely or 80% over land. Like the weakening trend, need to keep the eye onshore in Cuba. It hasn't made it completely on shore as of yet, and it needs to make a hard left right about now in order to do so from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It look like any dry air that the system has absorbed has not reached the core. That has stayed mainly intact. Unfortunately, there is going to be very little it seems to inhibit rapid intensification and whether o not a model disagrees on track, they all agreee on RI heading through the Florida straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 In the past 2 hours, the eye has warmed, the eyewall has cooled, the CDO has cooled and become more symmetric, and the western eyewall has closed back off. This storm is FAR from over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma may make a run at a 5 tonight if this continues to move over water and not onto Cuba. Thinking 145-150 MPH at LF currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: IR satellite presentation has looked better in the last hour or so. I actually think the core looks incredibly healthy considering the amount of land interaction. If it still looks anything like this as it emerges into the FL strait it has a good chance to intensify rapidly. Storms have entered that region in much worse shake and exploded. Yes shear increases later tomorrow but there is at least a 12-18 hour window before that. There is no guarantee. Sometimes storms have trouble getting organized. It might not intensify. But I wouldn't bet against it and some of the posts implying irma has been shredded or severely crippled and is unlikely to intensify are irresponsible and send the wrong message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Think once it reaches "rancho Velez" it will start to beef up again and have a good chance to start to really pull more northerly. rancho Velez seems like a good area for it to have some room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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