Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Latest Guidance

 

Seems like the westward trend is continuing... at this rate it could make landfall at Key west.

[McQuackleton]

Looks like it is doing a wobble to the NW.

[bdgwx]

12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I wonder what the record is in the Atlantic basin- Ike? Sandy?

Isabel (2003) at about 200 TJ. Sandy is pretty high up there too though.

[jasons]

13 minutes ago, Michigander said:

112 terajoules...

 

Impact Weather here in Houston did a similar scale a few years ago (post-Katrina). The most powerful storm in that analysis was Carla. I wonder where Irma will end-up when she passes through the FL Straits.

This is a great comparison to show just how much more powerful Irma is than Andrew.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Isabel (2003) at about 200 TJ. Sandy is pretty high up there too though.

That wapo article says Sandy was 330 TJ.

[Bruinsyear]

The last few frames in IR is showing a better presentation. The outflow looks better and the "buzzsaw" look is coming back. The eye is still working through things but I wonder if we've seen the last the slight weakening it has undergone. 

Bit of a NW jog as well, the next 12 hours-18 hours is vital for the track/intensity.

[Papa Joe]

Water temp at Key West:

NOS
Location: 24.556N 81.808W
Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2017 18:30:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 4.1 kt gusting to 8.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in
Air Temperature: 85.8 F
Water Temperature: 88.7 F

 

 

Marathon:

NOS
Location: 24.711N 81.107W
Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2017 18:48:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 14.0 kt gusting to 17.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in
Air Temperature: 87.8 F
Water Temperature: 89.2 F

 

[friedmators]

Did we lose recon?  Or just TT?

[donsutherland1]

Previously, I noted that the ECMWF has had a just over a 50-mile 48-hour error with Irma's track. A 50-mile error along the 12z run's track for Irma would have significant implications for parts of Florida. For purposes of illustration below is what Irma's track would look like 50 miles west and 50 miles east of the 12z run's forecast.

[Derecho!]

16 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

Good question. Flying down to Ft. Myers tonight, helping my family in Cape Coral who couldn't evacuate. I just talked to them, they're not concerned about surge AT ALL. Yet they live on Gulf access canal .5 mile from Pine Island Sound (basically the Gulf)

There is a complex interplay of approach angle  that is hard to figure out, in combination with the large storm size. I just don't know how the surge would work with, say, a track 40 nm west of Tampa or Ft. myers but paralleling the coast.   I think it's still bad.  

EC Ensembles will be critical, but for example the 12Z GEFS Ensembles don't have any "loopback" tracks a la Charley (going out into the GOM and then turning back NE over water into Florida at a more obtuse angle with the coast) which would be worse.  

Best case at this point would be a landfall in the Big Bend with minimal population. 

[Dunkman]

7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Did we lose recon?  Or just TT?

Mission is over. (NOAA HH "Kermit" should be taking off any time now)

From the last recon center fix anything north of 285 degrees keep the center off of Cuba (285 would clip the islands on the north coast). It's not like Irma need to head due NW or something to avoid landfall.

[lwg8tr0514]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Previously, I noted that the ECMWF has had a just over a 50-mile 48-hour error with Irma's track. A 50-mile error along the 12z run's track for Irma would have significant implications for parts of Florida. For purposes of illustration below is what Irma's track would look like 50 miles west and 50 miles east of the 12z run's forecast.

Looking at the IR, the wobble maybe the beginning of a turn more WNW with more a NW component.  Like more of a Cape Sable, up hitting Lake O and up to Orlando. Just not buying the models showing a west coast brush, not many analogs for that.  Atlantic storms seem to always want to fight to gain latitude sooner than later, I did read on another board the ridge maybe deteriorating on it's western boundary quicker than expected. Could be one more twist to this yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro showed about what I said MIA and north would see IF that track verified.  70-80 gusts to 100.

Which is a relative dodge.

Yes.

[Casualbrain]

Irma's 112 Terrajoule figure courtesy of RMS-HWind - Note at 112 Terrajoules is approximately equal to two Hiroshima atomic bombs.

 

[NYC10023]

2 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

There is a complex interplay of approach angle  that is hard to figure out, in combination with the large storm size. I just don't know how the surge would work with, say, a track 40 nm west of Tampa or Ft. myers but paralleling the coast.   I think it's still bad.  

EC Ensembles will be critical, but for example the 12Z GEFS Ensembles don't have any "loopback" tracks a la Charley (going out into the GOM and then turning back NE over water into Florida at a more obtuse angle with the coast) which would be worse.  

Best case at this point would be a landfall in the Big Bend with minimal population. 

Thanks. Yea the angle is going to be the key (along of course with wherever landfall is)

I'm hoping the surge isn't too bad there, but I think when I get down there I'm going to try and talk them into moving over to Ft Myers where I found a hotel room. Just to be safe. 

[radioheaded]

4 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Mission is over. (NOAA HH "Kermit" should be taking off any time now)

From the last recon center fix anything north of 285 degrees keep the center off of Cuba (285 would clip the islands on the north coast). It's not like Irma need to head due NW or something to avoid landfall.

Per Channel 7 out of Miami, who has a reporter embedded on that flight, they should be wheels up momentarily.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Looking at the IR, the wobble maybe the beginning of a turn more WNW with more a NW component.  Like more of a Cape Sable, up hitting Lake O and up to Orlando. Just not buying the models showing a west coast brush, not many analogs for that.  Atlantic storms seem to always want to fight to gain latitude sooner than later, I did read on another board the ridge maybe deteriorating on it's western boundary quicker than expected. Could be one more twist to this yet.

The hurricane models show a similar track to the Euro from just south of the keys over Florida.  The difference is they don't show the far west bend near Cuba.  In the end though both end up in the same place.  It's possible the Euro idea of touching Cuba is overdone but I think at this point this is unlikely to reverse trend and come in much further east than Don's map showed on that 50 mile error 

[kenavp]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

A cat 4/5 track along or near the westward extent there would cause unfathomable damage in Tampa. You'd probably have 10 ft of standing water in the center of the city. Not to mention everywhere else that touches the bay. 

Really scary stuff. 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Looking at the IR, the wobble maybe the beginning of a turn more WNW with more a NW component.  Like more of a Cape Sable, up hitting Lake O and up to Orlando. Just not buying the models showing a west coast brush, not many analogs for that.  Atlantic storms seem to always want to fight to gain latitude sooner than later, I did read on another board the ridge maybe deteriorating on it's western boundary quicker than expected. Could be one more twist to this yet.

The reality of wobbles that can contribute to a slight shift in track that becomes more significant over time, changes in the synoptic environment relative to current model guidance, etc., highlight the importance of keeping model errors in perspective. While there's room for cautious optimism for the Miami metro area, it's far too soon to have a great deal of confidence that Miami will dodge a catastrophic hit. A track on the eastern edge of the ECMWF's 48-hour margin of error would produce a devastating outcome. In contrast, a track along the western edge of its 48-hour margin of error would produce a worst-case kind of outcome for cities such as Tampa.

[weathafella]

Hard to know if Irma tries to dodge land till the last second.   I'm flying to ATL late Sunday returning Tuesday night.  Wonder how the air travel will be effected...

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, kenavp said:

A cat 4/5 track along or near the westward extent there would cause unfathomable damage in Tampa. You'd probably have 10 ft of standing water in the center of the city. Not to mention everywhere else that touches the bay. 

Really scary stuff. 

Yes. I have relatives in St. Petersburg, so I'm increasingly concerned about the shift in modeling overnight into today so far.

[lwg8tr0514]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The reality of wobbles that can contribute to a slight shift in track that becomes more significant over time, changes in the synoptic environment relative to current model guidance, etc., highlight the importance of keeping model errors in perspective. While there's room for cautious optimism for the Miami metro area, it's far too soon to have a great deal of confidence that Miami will dodge a catastrophic hit. A track on the eastern edge of the ECMWF's 48-hour margin of error would produce a devastating outcome. In contrast, a track along the western edge of its 48-hour margin of error would produce a worst-case kind of outcome for cities such as Tampa.

And Tampa rarely gets tropical cyclones, last time I think women still wore those garters and stockings.  I am sure a Met could lecture us on climatology and why Tampa not a prime place for a TC to pick on, could be topology, features in the GOM, etc that effect steering currents.  I think Wilma is a good analog once it gets into the Florida Straits diving almost straight north since we are conjecturing here and doing model hugging.

[DopplerWx]

yea quite a few euro ens take irma into cuba and are even further west than the op run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Regardless, devestating blow for someone.

What if....and a big IF, Irma spends more time traversing Cuba than most guidance is currently showing? I mean, 24 hrs ago most of us had a GA/SC landfalled pegged as almost all hurr guidance was unanimous. The trend is for more and more Cuba land interaction. IF Cuba landfall weakens Irma substantially to the point she never truly recovers, the only "devastating" blow could potentially be Cuba itself and not really the USA. Tho our definitions of devastating may differ.

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[Fishwrap]

As I recall Donna (1960)  left feet of water in Naples.  (5th Avenue South.)

[wxeyeNH]

Question on Recons.   If Irma does come ashore on the Cuba coast or hugs the coast within 25 miles or so can recon fly?  What is the relationship with the Cubian government in this regard?  It will be critical to see how the inner core is reacting to the landmass.  Looking at the Euro the eye could have about a 10 hour brush with the Cuba coast.  That would be along time to be without data!  Thoughts or input?

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles look very close to 00z on the mean. We are stabilizing the track errors.

[Dunkman]

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question on Recons.   If Irma does come ashore on the Cuba coast or hugs the coast within 25 miles or so can recon fly?  What is the relationship with the Cubian government in this regard?  It will be critical to see how the inner core is reacting to the landmass.  Looking at the Euro the eye could have about a 10 hour brush with the Cuba coast.  That would be along time to be without data!  Thoughts or input?

Recon doesn't generally survey the storm over land even in the US.

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question on Recons.   If Irma does come ashore on the Cuba coast or hugs the coast within 25 miles or so can recon fly?  What is the relationship with the Cubian government in this regard?  It will be critical to see how the inner core is reacting to the landmass.  Looking at the Euro the eye could have about a 10 hour brush with the Cuba coast.  That would be along time to be without data!  Thoughts or input?

I found this after a quick google: http://www.stormchaser.ca/Hurricanes/Ike_Hurricane_Hunters/Ike_HH.html

"One complication we had was that when we arrived at the storm, the eye was still over Cuba. They can't release dropsondes over land and flying an Air Force plane over Cuba requires special permission. The pilot was able to radio the Cuban authorities and acquire the proper permission and so we were able to get some radar and other measurements over Cuban land."

Here's a NOAA source: "NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s60.htm

[Akeem the African Dream]

If anyone on the east coast in SFL was still thinking about evacuating 95 is basically dead.  

I was headed southbound but very little traffic northbound 

cant upload pic.  Too big of a file