audioguy3107 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Papa Joe said: Looking at the NWS Doppler Radar, zooming in on Cuba, the eye is 100% over water right now (swamp == water). http://www.weather.gov/crh/radar Surface heat flux into the core matters. Hurricanes are heat engines. If a third of the core/eyewall is over land and islands, that flux is cut off. It shouldn't be surprising that we saw it weaken so quickly. It takes a lot of heat to maintain a cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, audioguy3107 said: NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps? I am pretty sure the NHC will follow science and facts and not really consider complacency in it's updates. I could be wrong but considering Chris Landsea on others there went back to reanalyze the last 100 years of hurricane activity to ensure it's as close to factually correct as possible I am going to say complacency plays no factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Why did NHC mention Cuba would not weaken it that much? I was puzzled by that last night. Since when does land not affect a tropical cyclone? Put away the intensity consensus sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps? It's a borderline cat 4 now. Still getting a patch of 130-135 FL winds on the NE side, so there could indeed be a small area of cat 4 winds over the water still. But I would expect it to be a cat 3 on the next advisory if it can't gain more latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The window for proper and safe evacuations in flood prone areas is closing fast and of maximum effect during daylight today. Any downgrade to Cat 3 would likely dampen that motivation to seek safer ground. Knowing the jet fuel SST and the potential to re intensify I am of the opinion that NHC can survive a dud for Irma in NA given the damage and loss of life it has already caused elsewhere, BUT its my opinion it won't survive well a re intensification of Irma to CAT 4 and having it wreak havoc on the keys and coast after allowing all here to let their guard down. Unrelated image below I can't seem to delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's a borderline cat 4 now. Still getting a patch of 130-135 FL winds on the NE side, so there could indeed be a small area of cat 4 winds over the water still. But I would expect it to be a cat 3 on the next advisory if it can't gain more latitude. based on recon and satellite looks like she's gaining some latitude now, but the island curves up for a bit so might not matter much in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Every piece of guidance for days has shown a re-intensification process once away from Cuba. Even the UKMET runs that ran Irma over Cuba for 24hrs, emerging off in the 990's showed 960's at LF in FL. I'm still not quite buying that shear ramps up all that much either until she's inland, however the further NW track does take it closer to the shear axis over the Northern gulf. I still expect at minimum a high end Cat 4 over the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Land interaction issues will continue until the storm turns north which the ECMWF simulated satellite product indicates will occur tomorrow morning as the eye moves towards Key West. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/775-w-267-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-0900z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The latest recon pass only found wind of 109 kts flight level and 98 kts SFMR, with a pressure likely around 941. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Everyone..use a little common sense...if you are thinking about posting anything not directly related to the meteorological aspect of irma..DON'T. They will be deleted. There is a thread for all that.. and if you don't comply, you will lose your posting abilities. So please use your head and save yourself and us some trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Once Irma does shoot north, could that motion help reestablish the western core? Just a casual observation, but I've noticed many times with storms recurving in the Atlantic that as they shoot north/northeast their CDO improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I'm seeing double wind Maxima pop up in a few recon passes. Looks like it is probably due to land interaction based on earlier microwave passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Once Irma does shoot north, could that motion help reestablish the western core? Just a casual observation, but I've noticed many times with storms recurving in the Atlantic that as they shoot north/northeast their CDO improves. Getting away from land will help, but at the same time it will be fighting shear and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Interesting to note that in 160 years of records, two Cat 4 hurricanes striking the US in the same year has only happened ONE time. 1915 when one hit Texas and one hit Louisiana a month later. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 38 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps? Does Cuba allow for the recon flights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 What does the NHC forecast have IT strengthening too... can't seem to find it anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yes the water is jet fuel between it and FL but at this point it has taken a beating and this is good news for FL. I am not sure just how much re-building it will do once the turn occurs being the level of shear it will encounter and how beat up the core may be. Obviously I am not going to say it won't re-intensify and make landfall as a cat 4 but I think the chances of it coming in below that have gone up. I would be just fine with that scenario as much as some people here want to see the worst play out. Regardless of what happens, the age old cry wolf dilemma may come up. I feel bad for whoever spent the money for no reason to leave, but when you come back at least you will still have your home and livelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 WV and IR loops show dry air being wrapped around the SW side of the system, likely downsloaping. It's going to take a few more hours to correct this, and the core continues to take a hit. Looks more like a mid-latitude cyclone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does Cuba allow for the recon flights? Yes. I found this and posted it in the other thread yesterday, but it's more relevant today: Here's a NOAA source: "NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s60.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Yes the water is jet fuel between it and FL but at this point it has taken a beating and this is good news for FL. I am not sure just how much re-building it will do once the turn occurs being the level of shear it will encounter and how beat up the core may be. Obviously I am not going to say it won't re-intensify and make landfall as a cat 4 but I think the chances of it coming in below that have gone up. I would be just fine with that scenario as much as some people here want to see the worst play out. Regardless of what happens, the age old cry wolf dilemma may come up. I feel bad for whoever spent the money for no reason to leave, but when you come back at least you will still have your home and livelihood. Shear isn't forecast to increase for another 24hrs though. At least to a level to matter with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Yes. I found this and posted it in the other thread yesterday, but it's more relevant today: Here's a NOAA source: "NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s60.htm Thanks. I'm not surprised as they benefit from the information as well, but I wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, (So)Alexandria said: Getting away from land will help, but at the same time it will be fighting shear and dry air. I was referring less to any interaction with land, or lack thereof, but strictly to a north direction of motion. I was thinking that with a cyclonic system, simply by moving north it can help shore up the western CDO, but I don't have any hard data on that. Also, I suppose it could lessen the impact of shear if it is of southerly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yes the water is jet fuel between it and FL but at this point it has taken a beating and this is good news for FL. I am not sure just how much re-building it will do once the turn occurs being the level of shear it will encounter and how beat up the core may be. Obviously I am not going to say it won't re-intensify and make landfall as a cat 4 but I think the chances of it coming in below that have gone up. I would be just fine with that scenario as much as some people here want to see the worst play out. Regardless of what happens, the age old cry wolf dilemma may come up. I feel bad for whoever spent the money for no reason to leave, but when you come back at least you will still have your home and livelihood. Assuming this doesn't explode again, which I am not saying that.. Her core is in tact. But *IF* this were to play out, the backlash will likely be severe for the NHC and oem** managers and officials. Millions of people displaced. That being said, her core is in tact. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 A few things to note WRT reintensification potential. Depends on 4 things IMO: SST (CHECK), Inner Core organization (TBD depending on extent of Cuba interaction next 12 hours or so), Mid Level moisture (dry air is knocking on the door, but not wrapped into the core yet by tomorrow AM), and wind shear (again, knocking on the door, but not in the system yet by the time we get to tomorrow AM). ECMWF 500mb RH tomorrow AM: https://weather.us/model-ch... ECMWF 300mb winds tomorrow AM: https://weather.us/model-ch... Many other full res ECMWF parameters for free via menus, click image to zoom in and click near edge of image to pan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: WV and IR loops show dry air being wrapped around the SW side of the system, likely downsloaping. It's going to take a few more hours to correct this, and the core continues to take a hit. Looks more like a mid-latitude cyclone right now. We saw how quickly this ramped up last night over a few hours. With the core intact, the potential for significant strengthening is fairly high. We can already see the llv water vapor has improved over the last hour and a half.... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-200-1-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does Cuba allow for the recon flights? They don't fly recon into entities over a landmasses due to turbulence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Heading back inland now. Frictional torque may help it stay near/on the coast, but it looks like the nearest chance for it to split and get offshore won't occur until sometime tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 As long as the core is intact, once this gets over water it will restrengthen. Luckily it's hanging on. Cuba's geography isn't helping, since the storm can't pull away from the coast. That south wobble last night is what caused this problem. If it wasn't for that it would have been impacted, no where near as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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