Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[mclean02]

it now looks like tampa is at great risk starting to really worry about them. Considering the angle and approach of the storm I thought that was the worst case scenario for them?

[Raine1212]

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

Just listen to NWS Columbia/Atlanta and you'll be fine. 

Thank you, it's already rough, 54 years old with a 10 year old and a husband with cancer. I am trying to be prepared, but I do t have a clue what to do. Thanks for answering me you are so kind

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, Raine1212 said:

Thank you, it's already rough, 54 years old with a 10 year old and a husband with cancer. I am trying to be prepared, but I do t have a clue what to do. Thanks for answering me you are so kind

The reality is there could quite possibly be some river flooding, and power outages. Tornadoes will likely be a risk, but your issues are more gusty winds, and rain than than what Columbus will encounter. There are several models shooting it out through Alabama, and only the NWS will know the best course of action. I hate to hear your going through hard times, but as long as you have water/food/flash lights etc. You should be fine. NWS will tell if you need to worry, and I personally hope you don't have to. 

[Master of Disaster]

4 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

Thank you, it's already rough, 54 years old with a 10 year old and a husband with cancer. I am trying to be prepared, but I do t have a clue what to do. Thanks for answering me you are so kind

Someone did post the model run for GA a few pages back. 3M gusts I believe that did show the possiblity of hurricane force winds as far north as Atlanta. Just something to consider. 

[LVLion77]

We are very lucky she took that slight southwest turn last night and rode Cuban coast. She does look damaged by Cuba and she will continue to feel the effects of cuba. I have a hard time believing the indicated wind speeds.


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[RU848789]

TWC has reported max surface winds in the 120-125 mph range on the last 2 passes through the storm (NW and SE eyewalls) by the hurricane hunters, but not all of the storm quadrants have been sampled.  Will be a dilemma for the NHC in terms of reporting such a huge drop in winds, if these numbers are corroborated on all of the passes.  Just imagine them downgrading this to a Cat 3 at 120 mph at 8 am, then the storm reintensifies to 150 mph before landfall.  Many will likely let their guard down and perhaps not evacuate from the Keys or SW Florida and then get hammered if it reintensifies - and people like Dwayne will never ever listen to the NHC/NWS ever again.  So hard to communicate risk and uncertainty well.  I know it's slightly off topic, but a colleague/friend of mine wrote the linked article on risk communicatin around Irma.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-to-tell-people-to-get-them-to-evacuate-before-a-hurricane-hits/2017/09/08/09b1efc0-93e0-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.961a82e92c2b

[Raine1212]

5 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

The reality is there could quite possibly be some river flooding, and power outages. Tornadoes will likely be a risk, but your issues are more gusty winds, and rain than than what Columbus will encounter. There are several models shooting it out through Alabama, and only the NWS will know the best course of action. I hate to hear your going through hard times, but as long as you have water/food/flash lights etc. You should be fine. NWS will tell if you need to worry, and I personally hope you don't have to. 

Thanks, my yard will flood  with an inch of rain if it is fast, I guess I will clean my French drain today, so I don't have a lake, but if I do I will post pictures somewhere. Read NWS for my zip code 30809, not liking it. Thanks again

[Master of Disaster]

Anywho, back to Irma. When is the next recon scheduled?

[Crazieman]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

TWC has reported max surface winds in the 120-125 mph range on the last 2 passes through the storm (NW and SE eyewalls) by the hurricane hunters, but not all of the storm quadrants have been sampled.  Will be a dilemma for the NHC in terms of reporting such a huge drop in winds, if these numbers are corroborated on all of the passes.  Just imagine them downgrading this to a Cat 3 at 120 mph at 8 am, then the storm reintensifies to 150 mph before landfall.  Many will likely let their guard down and perhaps not evacuate from the Keys or SW Florida and then get hammered if it reintensifies - and people like Dwayne will never ever listen to the NHC/NWS ever again.  So hard to communicate risk and uncertainty well.  I know it's slightly off topic, but a colleague/friend of mine wrote the linked article on risk communicatin around Irma.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-to-tell-people-to-get-them-to-evacuate-before-a-hurricane-hits/2017/09/08/09b1efc0-93e0-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.961a82e92c2b

Eh.

If true, I was trashed for pointing this out entirely.

Massive weakening, but gigantic potential for restrengthening.

It was only pure observation, but intention was imparted on the observation.

[MattPetrulli]

Maybe the hurricane force wind field has expanded some per recon. 

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said:

Anywho, back to Irma. When is the next recon scheduled?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

"Gonzo" I believe is in the air, and they currently have a plane surveying.

[Master of Disaster]

Anytime I see a hurricane potentially track off the West coast of Florida like this, the first thing I am reminded of is a comment one of the forecasters at the NHC told me during a class there a few years ago. Even though Hurricane Ivan was hitting AL, the Kelvin wave it produced refracting off the topography of the coast forced a 5 foot storm surge into Apalachicola Bay a hundred miles from landfall. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

"Gonzo" I believe is in the air, and they currently have a plane surveying.

I think this one is the updated one (as of yesterday) - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Hopefully folks won't feed the trolls.

[otown]

Can't get an answer in the other thread. I'm in Tallahassee. Should I take a drive to Orlando or Jacksonville?

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, otown said:

Can't get an answer in the other thread. I'm in Tallahassee. Should I take a drive to Orlando or Jacksonville?

Honestly, if you want to leave why not just go west young man/woman and enjoy the cheaper hotels in alabama?

[otown]

2 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Honestly, if you want to leave why not just go west young man/woman and enjoy the cheaper hotels in alabama?

Because as much as I wish that was an option, it's not

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, otown said:

Can't get an answer in the other thread. I'm in Tallahassee. Should I take a drive to Orlando or Jacksonville?

Making the decision to leave your home is a deeply personal one that only you can make. Asking these kind of questions are ones that no one can really answer. What kind of home do you live in? Is it a trailer? What code is it built to? Are there trees surrounding your home? Does anyone in your home require electricity for health reasons? Are you in a flood zone? Are you in an evacuation zone? Has your home flooded before? Not that you were specifically asking if you should evacuate but I am just noting that some questions people here just may not have answers to. 

[csnavywx]

The vortex is clearly spinning down pretty quickly. This is definitely "only" at cat 3 now based on those last two passes and is at risk of having its inner core disrupted today. There's a bit of westerly shear already impinging on the CDO (bit of outflow restriction there and the eye is displaced out of the center of the CDO). She has about 6-12 hours left to get away from Cuba.

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, otown said:

Because as much as I wish that was an option, it's not

In that case do what you feel is necessary. A lot of people here say stay unless otherwise told. My opinion personally is if you feel the need to leave do so at your earliest convenience  because the worst that'll happen is you're not there to get hurt. But do remember if this thing goes more west Orlando will be in some problems if a few of the models work out. Same problem with your current location.

[Mountain_Patch]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The vortex is clearly spinning down pretty quickly. This is definitely "only" at cat 3 now based on those last two passes and is at risk of having its inner core disrupted today. There's a bit of westerly shear already impinging on the CDO (bit of outflow restriction there and the eye is displaced out of the center of the CDO). She has about 6-12 hours left to get away from Cuba.

Unluckily for florida its already creeping off Cuba's coast.

[audioguy3107]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The vortex is clearly spinning down pretty quickly. This is definitely "only" at cat 3 now based on those last two passes and is at risk of having its inner core disrupted today. There's a bit of westerly shear already impinging on the CDO (bit of outflow restriction there and the eye is displaced out of the center of the CDO). She has about 6-12 hours left to get away from Cuba.

Yep, Cuba strikes again.  The eye is still going to be scraping the coast in the next 6 hours or so as well......I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 storm by the time she eventually pulls away.  With increasing shear forecast, chances of a major making landfall are going down.  Intensification is certainly possible but not a guarantee at this point.  Once the inner core is damaged like this, it's a rough go.

[TPAwx]

43 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

it now looks like tampa is at great risk starting to really worry about them. Considering the angle and approach of the storm I thought that was the worst case scenario for them?

Absolute worst case is an NNE moving cat 5 that passes sllightly north of the Bay, so an approach from the SW.  But Irma is not looking like it will be fun times.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Unluckily for florida its already creeping off Cuba's coast.

It's sitting near the higher terrain there in central Cuba, which isn't good for inflow, especially with the core so close (the southern eyewall is partially over land). I don't expect to see it strengthen again until it's got both a good distance away from shore and that terrain. Still at risk for significant core disruption today if it can't gain more latitude.

[Pityflakes]

33 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

TWC has reported max surface winds in the 120-125 mph range on the last 2 passes through the storm (NW and SE eyewalls) by the hurricane hunters, but not all of the storm quadrants have been sampled.  Will be a dilemma for the NHC in terms of reporting such a huge drop in winds, if these numbers are corroborated on all of the passes.  Just imagine them downgrading this to a Cat 3 at 120 mph at 8 am, then the storm reintensifies to 150 mph before landfall.  Many will likely let their guard down and perhaps not evacuate from the Keys or SW Florida and then get hammered if it reintensifies - and people like Dwayne will never ever listen to the NHC/NWS ever again.  So hard to communicate risk and uncertainty well.  I know it's slightly off topic, but a colleague/friend of mine wrote the linked article on risk communicatin around Irma.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-to-tell-people-to-get-them-to-evacuate-before-a-hurricane-hits/2017/09/08/09b1efc0-93e0-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.961a82e92c2b

Seems to me that NWS is most effective at communicating when it has credibility.  It the data supports a 125 mph storm, NWS should say so.  

[Radtechwxman]

Irma taking a hard hit from Cuba. Looks like the eye is almost closed and cloud temps warmed a lot. Also seems like the spiral bands on west half are dissipating. Wonder if the very warm water temps will be enough for it to recover after it turns north or if Cuba did too much damage

[Papa Joe]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It's sitting near the higher terrain there in central Cuba, which isn't good for inflow, especially with the core so close (the southern eyewall is partially over land). I don't expect to see it strengthen again until it's got both a good distance away from shore and that terrain. Still at risk for significant core disruption today if it can't gain more latitude.

Looking at the NWS Doppler Radar, zooming in on Cuba, the eye is 100% over water right now (swamp == water). 

http://www.weather.gov/crh/radar

[RU848789]

Can anyone post the track/intensity from last night's Euro?  I see the model panels on TT, but it's only every 24 hours and it's only one snapshot at a time, not the whole track/intensity.  I understand if that's not possible given IP issues, but thought I'd ask.  Postell on TWC has been saying that the Euro has been "kicking butt" throughout the entire storm and is only showing Euro output, including more detailed track info than I can see on TT.  Thanks.

Postell also just said that NHC has lowered winds to 130 mph.  

[audioguy3107]

Just now, Papa Joe said:

Looking at the NWS Doppler Radar, zooming in on Cuba, the eye is 100% over water right now (swamp == water). 

http://www.weather.gov/crh/radar

The eye is, true, but way too much of the circulation is over land.  It needs to pull away fast to have any chance to take off again.  It needs a few good north wobbles.  It'll be interesting what the 8 AM advisory shows.

[forecasterjack]

58 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

Question, my area is slightly out of the cone now, but looks like we are still in the RFQ, the media hype is saying it will explode over land and could push hurricane force winds into Augusta. Are you guys seeing that? Not sure I can trust the media hype on this. Thanks

ECMWF forecasts hurricane force wind gusts into N GA. Definitely reasonable. This will steadily weaken over land, but it has a long way to fall before its winds are harmless. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/800-w-320-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170912-0600z.html

[Crazieman]

CZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA HITTING HARD THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...TERRAIN OF CUBA WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas and the Ragged
Island has been discontinued.

Additional Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast later today.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Chassahowitzka
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County line
* North of Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Chassahowitzka
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Chassahowitzka to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de
la Habana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a
reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude 22.6 North,
longitude 79.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h), along the north coast of Cuba. A northwest motion is expected
to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight
or on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue
to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this morning, and will
reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to
be near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

The interaction with the terrain of Cuba has weakened the hurricane
a little.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts, but Irma remains a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is
forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane
was 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:   Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas today,
and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys
tonight and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern
Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.

The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern
Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN