Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Crazieman said:

Never implied it was over in the least.  Even as damaged looking as it is, there's enough fuel to keep it at least 4 in to Fort Meyers.

Then what was the point of your previous post?  At least a 4 at landfall is not excellent news for FL, on planet Earth anyway.

[MillvilleWx]

Considering what is happening around the eye, I think it looks fine. The eye was going to be hindered somewhat given its location, but the core looks good. Should see continued pressure rises into the afternoon, but it looks like it bombs out as it heads toward FL. Definitely not good news no matter how you slice it there. It was a 930mb at 2am while hugging a coastline. That's impressive if you ask me. 

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Considering what is happening around the eye, I think it looks fine. The eye was going to be hindered somewhat given its location, but the core looks good. Should see continued pressure rises into the afternoon, but it looks like it bombs out as it heads toward FL. Definitely not good news no matter how you slice it there. It was a 930mb at 2am while hugging a coastline. That's impressive if you ask me. 

I would argue the tightening of the eye will be a good thing for the hurricane going into the future. Rather than sitting at 40 miles, this land interaction is going to tighten and contract it as it fights for heat. This will make the capacity according to the limited understanding on RI to be significant going forward. The only question I have is does this constriction improve the odds for an early ERC?

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Considering what is happening around the eye, I think it looks fine. The eye was going to be hindered somewhat given its location, but the core looks good. Should see continued pressure rises into the afternoon, but it looks like it bombs out as it heads toward FL. Definitely not good news no matter how you slice it there. It was a 930mb at 2am while hugging a coastline. That's impressive if you ask me. 

I would agree with this, considering the land interaction right now the core has maintained its structure really well, just because cloud tops are warming a touch doesn't mean this doesn't spin right back up once it moves off the coast.

[Hotair]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it appears Irma is the first Cat 5 to reach Cuban land since 1932 !! I would have thought there would have been others since then ?

[Msalgado]

Cloud tops along the western portion of the CDO had warmed over the past 3ish hours or so.  However, the lastest GOES 16 images definitely show the eyewall on the western side cooling again.  I suggest visiting the page below and viewing the same animations with different IR color schemes to get a better view of what's going on in the core.  

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband14.html

 

Yeah, its obvious Irma has weakened but its not clear that this trend will matter too much in the long run.

 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I would argue the tightening of the eye will be a good thing for the hurricane going into the future. Rather than sitting at 40 miles, this land interaction is going to tighten and contract it as it fights for heat. This will make the capacity according to the limited understanding on RI to be significant going forward. The only question I have is does this constriction improve the odds for an early ERC?

The eye is likely going through some frictional convergence with the coastline and should see it tighten up a bit as it continues its course parallel to the Cuban coast. Once it reemerges over the deeper waters, the system should begin seeing convection flaring up around the CoC and the pressure rises will relax and wind speeds will only knock down a few pegs (Can see 10-15mph drop from now). In theory, a smaller eye would allow the system to obtain higher winds once it goes through re-intensification along with steady pressure falls. The forecasted environment for Irma over the Straits and SE Gulf is a great area for the storm to get its act together and is basically being forecasted across all guidance. She's going to be a beast of burden for the Keys and SW FL and Cat 4 LF is very likely at this point with better than average chance at Cat 5 (All pending how the core fairs once it moves away from Cuba). As far as an ERC, this storm has been unique in its behavior, so I really can't answer that with certainty. My guess would be no, but that's only due to history of the cyclone with ERC's so far. 

 

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

I would agree with this, considering the land interaction right now the core has maintained its structure really well, just because cloud tops are warming a touch doesn't mean this doesn't spin right back up once it moves off the coast.

Exactly. If anything, this storm is scary in how well it's have able to fend off everything thrown at it. I guess that's what happens when you've built up this strong of a core over several days. With the current track looking fairly well pegged at this point, I almost feel the only threat to Irma right now is herself if she decides to undergo an ERC in the future. Otherwise, it's a gloomy look for the Keys and Western FL. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Current SST's arent good. Will support rapid reintensification. 

[RutgersWx92]

25 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but it appears Irma is the first Cat 5 to reach Cuban land since 1932 !! I would have thought there would have been others since then ?

Actually the first since 1924. I was surprised when I read that too.

[dan11295]

Will be interesting to see what the center does at this point where the coast cut back to the west. Does Irma just hug the coast until later this afternoon? Btw, core is starting to come into range on Miami long range radar.

[Hoosier]

Other than a more traditional hit from the SW, this might be the runner up to the worst scenario for Tampa

 

[SnoSki14]

I really hope people don't let their guard down because of the current weakening near Cuba.

She's going to explode as soon as shes back into the straits. Her core is fully intact. 

[dan11295]

Hopefully for Tampa the west trend continues so the get far enough away from the core. Given model trends I see no reason that it West wont continue into the turn actually commences. Question becomes do the models continue to delay the North turn?

[SnowGoose69]

May have actually moved east slightly...or 1-2 of them did.

 

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hopefully for Tampa the west trend continues so the get far enough away from the core. Given model trends I see no reason that it West wont continue into the turn actually commences. Question becomes do the models continue to delay the North turn?

You realize I hope that if this storm continues further west with the pressure system coming down into the SE it'll drive the hurricane straight into the Tampa area from the west right? The faster that turn occurs the better.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hopefully for Tampa the west trend continues so the get far enough away from the core. Given model trends I see no reason that it West wont continue into the turn actually commences. Question becomes do the models continue to delay the North turn?

There's only so much west she could go, that shortwave is rapidly digging SE. I think the furthest west would be right around Tampa.

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's only so much west she could go, that shortwave is rapidly digging SE. I think the furthest west would be right around Tampa.

I'd take 200 billion in damage over what that would do since many in miami evacuated to tampa. because the SST's leading up to tampa are just as hot as the ones in the florida strait. 

[MillvilleWx]

Quite the bufkit sounding for MTH during the height of Irma passing. Here's quite the shot on the GFS 0z run.

[weathernerd]

As of 4:00am Irma has lost any discernible eye feature  on satellite imagery. Looking very unimpressive the last hour or so. 

[RutgersWx92]

5 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

Cuba is showing this thing who is the boss. 

I wonder how the people of FL are going to feel about this since the government and media scared all of them to death?

It's downright irresponsible and reckless to be making statements like this. It encourages complacency when in reality this is still a very serious (if not dire) situation for Florida. The models have Irma intensifying in the very warm waters once it pulls away from Cuba, and there is nothing that makes me believe that won't happen. Even IF (and that's a big if) it weakens down to a Category 3 by this afternoon, it could easily strengthen back to a solid Category 4 or stronger before making landfall. Also, this will likely be tracking up a good portion of the west coast of Florida, and it's a very large storm, so many places will be severely impacted. This is compounded by the fact that SW FL and Tampa are very prone to storm surge.

So please, stop already.

[weathernerd]

11 minutes ago, CarbondaleWX said:

It'll ramp back up again once it heads North

She's got a chance to reorganize sure. Pulled n a lot of dry air from Cuba though and she's gonna have to expel it before any re intensification will happen.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Is it just me, or has a solid NW motion appeared on the visible sat the last 30 mins?

[Crazy4Wx]

Eye fully intact on Cuban Radar. This has been modeled pretty well by HWRF and shows her deepening as soon as she clears the coast.

[Mountain_Patch]

So this is the sat map of Cuba.. You will notice several features. The deep water going into the Bahama's which is what half the eye is currently sitting on, and the area between florida and cuba the hurricane will move into in less than 8 hours. This area has something called the loop current. This area is so conducive to category 5 hurricanes that it is what made hurricane Katrina exist. Coming across Florida it was barely together, and in just a few short hours she was a monster. If we currently look at the track of the Hurricane slowly it pulls away from the coast midmorning, and moves towards the loop current. Any organization lost, and any reduction in windspeed will be negligible at best. All models have Irma deepening between 919 - sub 900. Rita if memory serves dropped 21 mb in 14 hours on the loop current. This hurricane at its current pace will have nearly 20 hours to reorganize itself, and as seen today in just 6 hours following the completion of the ERC it went from 130 knt winds to over 140. And at that time it hasn't even touched the level of warmth its about to feel. It just got a taste. There is minimal shear, and almost no dry air ahead, and the core structure of this hurricane is abnormally resilient. So lets make the argument that Irma comes off Cuba at 130 knts if her past and the climo of what occurs at the loop current is an indication she'll be cat 5 by landfall. 

Any and all comfort you feel due to warming cloud tops should be immediately negated by the rational understanding Irma NEEDED to go inland quite a bit in order for any lasting issues to exist. She will be 150mph-160+ at landfall, and this earnest attempt to act as though this isn't the big one is understating the dire circumstances before us. 

Adding a new image for size.
 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

So this is the sat map of Cuba.. You will notice several features. The deep water going into the Bahama's which is what half the eye is currently sitting on, and the area between florida and cuba the hurricane will move into in less than 8 hours. This area has something called the loop current. This area is so conducive to category 5 hurricanes that it is what made hurricane Katrina exist. Coming across Florida it was barely together, and in just a few short hours she was a monster. If we currently look at the track of the Hurricane slowly it pulls away from the coast midmorning, and moves towards the loop current. Any organization lost, and any reduction in windspeed will be negligible at best. All models have Irma deepening between 919 - sub 900. Rita if memory serves dropped 21 mb in 14 hours on the loop current. This hurricane at its current pace will have nearly 20 hours to reorganize itself, and as seen today in just 6 hours following the completion of the ERC it went from 130 knt winds to over 140. And at that time it hasn't even touched the level of warmth its about to feel. It just got a taste. There is minimal shear, and almost no dry air ahead, and the core structure of this hurricane is abnormally resilient. So lets make the argument that Irma comes off Cuba at 130 knts if her past and the climo of what occurs at the loop current is an indication she'll be cat 5 by landfall. 

Any and all comfort you feel due to warming cloud tops should be immediately negated by the rational understanding Irma NEEDED to go inland quite a bit in order for any lasting issues to exist. She will be 150mph-160+ at landfall, and this earnest attempt to act as though this isn't the big one is understating the dire circumstances before us. 
 

I highly doubt it comes off at 130kts.  I'm guessing 120-125 mph now.  I initially thought it would go down to 130-135 but think it'll weaken more than that.

[Mountain_Patch]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I highly doubt it comes off at 130kts.  I'm guessing 120-125 mph now.  I initially thought it would go down to 130-135 but think it'll weaken more than that.

I don't think it weakens below 140. It is able to sustain off the warmth from the bahama's it just can't maintain cat 5. (I'm wrong

)

EDIT: I've spent way too much time tonight going through instagram for the layout of the land its over currently, and it's literally scraping the flat marshy coast/barriers. I couldn't believe how beautiful the landscape it's crossing right now is. 

[Mountain_Patch]

She's shifted WNW: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 78.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected by late today, with a turn toward the
north-northwest expected tonight or on Sunday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the north coast of Cuba
today, near the Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the
southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

She's shifted WNW: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 78.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected by late today, with a turn toward the
north-northwest expected tonight or on Sunday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the north coast of Cuba
today, near the Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the
southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).

Looking at satellite shows the shift happened about an hour ago 

[MillvilleWx]

Major squall just blew through the Middle to Upper Keys. Tropical storm force sustained at the C-man stations off Islamorada with gusts to 55 and 66mph between the two stations. Going to be a long 48 hours for the Keys. 

[Mountain_Patch]

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits.  However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then.  The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida.  After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

INIT  09/0900Z 22.5N  78.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 22.9N  80.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.8N  81.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 25.4N  81.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 27.7N  82.4W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0600Z 32.5N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND