Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro is southwest of the GFS still on the cuba coast at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The eye was/is basically on land when you consider the shallow shelf water there and that large island chain just offshore Cuba. Doesn't appear it will make it inland however and will likely bounce off the coastline until it turns NW tomorrow. Don't think we'll start to see it bomb out again until it's clearly away from the land and reaches the Florida straits. From there, wouldn't be surprised to see anything really, strength wise, if the models are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro keeps this over or very near land for another 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro may end up being a little too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Euro? It's actually a bit west compared to 12z at 18hr. Track is odd though as it jogs due west from 12-18hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radar data near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.2 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by late today. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the north coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: It's actually a bit west compared to 12z at 18hr. Track is odd though as it jogs due west from 12-18hr. At this point, why would anyone doubt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: At this point, why would anyone doubt it. Wouldn't doubt it if it just went due east, either. This is just an odd storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Still Cat 5.. BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...EYE OF IRMA MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 78.2W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, Quincy said: Euro had 950s, so, lol. Euro has been consistently off on intensity throughout, by a fairly constant value too. So I would definitely take the intensity estimates in a relative, not absolute, sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro looks pretty bad for Fort Meyers up through Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro makes landfall somewhere not too far south of Tampa maybe similar to Charley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Euro has been consistently off on intensity throughout, by a fairly constant value too. So I would definitely take the intensity estimates in a relative, not absolute, sense. Yeah, none of the global models have handled it well. Not even the mesoscale models either, really. Not totally uncommon for such a deep cyclone, but model trends (strengthen/weaken) can still have some value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro is another shift west. May not be a big shift on track, but it's huge as far as implications to Key West and on up the SW Florida Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The farther west it goes the more time it has to strengthen before it hits land. Euro has its strongest storm so far at landfall I believe? Naples, Cape Coral, Sarasota, Tampa get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This run is a really bad run for Fort Meyers and Naples. NNE motion between hours 42-48 and strengthening, heading for Port Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 If it doesn't move far enough inland on Cuba to really disrupt the core to cat 1 or lower, then the west trend is bad because if it emerges from Cuba as Cat 2/3 or higher it will have a significant time to restrengthen over some very warm waters. I'm not sure exactly when the sheer is supposed to increase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, skierinvermont said: Euro makes landfall somewhere not too far south of Tampa maybe similar to Charley. Via WeatherBELL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Punta gorda Port Charlotte I'd say, sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Last advisory has Irma at 930mb . The EURO has it on this run at 950 . 20 mb difference . Should we expect that right before land fall at cape coral roughly around 909mb ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 RFQ through Lower Keys with 900mb winds at close to 140 knots. This carries up through Naples and Fort Meyers. Good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Nothing like a strengthening Cat-4/5 headed right for Tampa Bay....this sucks for a lot of people in that region. Hell, another bump W and we're talking a surge nightmare for Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Last advisory has Irma at 930mb . The EURO has it on this run at 950 . 20 mb difference . Should we expect that right before land fall at cape coral roughly around 909mb ???? I'd wait to see what it's at when it clears Cuba. But as has been mentioned, the signal on some models for rapid deepening is concerning. This Euro run is sort of like Charley on steroids, given the much bigger size of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Not doomsday for Tampa yet, but it still has 48hrs to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I don't have the 6 hour panels, but it looks like the CoC goes over Tampa Bay. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: I don't have the 6 hour panels, but it looks like the CoC goes over Tampa Bay. Is that right? From what I can see, yes. It comes ashore near Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte and runs up the west coast of FL. Keys to Tampa hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Last advisory has Irma at 930mb . The EURO has it on this run at 950 . 20 mb difference . Should we expect that right before land fall at cape coral roughly around 909mb ???? It drops roughly 23mb's from it's exit point on Cuba until landfall in Florida. It has been too high on pressure most of Irma's existence. I wouldn't read too much into the exact pressure projections on the euro. The most disturbing strengthening forecasted is on the GFS. It drops it from 936mb's to 894mb's. Just ponder a storm this size striking at sub 900mb's. Would likely be the most catastrophic Hurricane strike in history of the CONUS. People downplaying this one are downright stupid and know nothing about models/forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Crazieman said: IR presentation is terrible at the moment. The core appears to have sustained structural damage. That coupled with the rise in pressure is excellent news for Florida. Always the huge question, how well can it recover over the jet fuel in the straits. see above post. This isn't over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I think you guys are overestimating the loss to the hurricane a great deal. Right now it's over shallow water, but within 4-6 hours the water along the coast gradually deepens. As long as the flows aren't blocked it can sustain itself in this position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 With This RUN the storm surge in the ft Myers cape coral area has to be worse then the 6-10 thatbtheybwere saying correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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