ROOSTA Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 A sub 900mb strengthening at LF depicted on the 00Z GFS speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Just reviewing the 12z Euro...and, unless Irma takes a hard left turn over the next few hours, it'll be off by quite a bit to the south by 7am. 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not sure if the RGEM is remotely useful but it sure has a track more like the Euro and hurricane models into Fort Myers HRRRX for what's it worth. The model consensus has more or less converged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma looks like she's taking a bit of a hit on the latest IR loop from land interaction with Cuba.She's looking like it's a substantial hit.. But that water is rocket fuel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrongVerb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, aperson said: A met posted on here a few days ago something that really cleared this up for me. The motion path of hurricanes is trochoidal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid Think of taking a top that is moving forward and then lightly blowing on one side of it in the same direction as its rotation Question: if you can determine the deformation (is this the right term?) in the trochoidal movement can you determine the force of the "light blowing"? Would this serve to help predict movement going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Look how the structure of the storm has changed between frame 1 (approaching the Cuban coastline on a west trajectory) to frame 200 (being influenced by the shortwave) of the current satellite imagery. Not only has the orientation of the storm changed, but it has grown in size as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Cuba radar shows the eyewall barely skimming the shoreline and only directly passing over the keys. The core remains largely intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: You can see it on GOES-16 2 min intervals, hit a wall and slight NW movement last 2 frames. It appears the southern heavier band rotating under and around the rim nudged it up with the northern part going up with it. Kind of like teeter tottering. Not sure if that has any effects physics wise in correlation with the circulation track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It's strange thing to say, but given how large the eyewall was 6 hours ago, the frictional land effects could act to tighten it up. This could have a net positive impact on strength/lowering pressure as it moves off the coastline tomorrow and starts to head N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Canadian is way west vs. this morning's run at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HWRF @ hr 36 is 30-40 miles NE of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Homestead FL - gusts to 37 kt, that's the first gale (tropical storm force) on the US mainland. It's from a squall central Cuba - Camaguey MUCM 090350Z 23044G61KT 3000 RA BKN005 OVC020 24/24 Q0984 MUCM 090250Z 24044G61KT 3000 RA BKN005 OVC060 24/24 Q0982 MUCM 090150Z 25041G55KT 1000 +SHRA BKN005 OVC060 23/23 Q0984 MUCM 090050Z 25040G58KT 1000 +SHRA BKN005 OVC060 22/22 Q0986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The UKMET looks like it goes into Fort Myers as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Anyone know a good website to watch the loops of this now? Been using intellicast but it seems to be down now and for some reason wunderground doesn't let you animate the satellite anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HMON is about 50-60 miles NE of 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HWRF @ hr 36 is 30-40 miles NE of 18z.That seems significant?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HMON is about 50-60 miles NE of 18z position.Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Homestead FL - gusts to 37 kt, that's the first gale (tropical storm force) on the US mainland. It's from a squall Marathon just took one on the chin now from a squall. 41 knot gusts out of the northeast. Radar looking ominous down there. Feel for the people that live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: That seems significant? At this range it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Anyone know a good website to watch the loops of this now? Been using intellicast but it seems to be down now and for some reason wunderground doesn't let you animate the satellite anymorehttp://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-0-100Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I'm honestly amazed the HMON does not take every storm in Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I'm just an amateur but I think these most recent shifts to the east are just corrections to the coastal bobble by Irma to avoid the coast. I don't think it necessarily is starting a northern track as it is just going to ride the coast. The models however will bounce back and forth as she wobbles back and forth. *edit referring to coast of Cuba in case it was unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: HMON is about 50-60 miles NE of 18z position. Link? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090900&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=0 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090818&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=124.66666412353516 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasWeatherman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Anyone know a good website to watch the loops of this now? Been using intellicast but it seems to be down now and for some reason wunderground doesn't let you animate the satellite anymore http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100 I've been refreshing these every 5 minutes for the last hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Canadian is way west vs. this morning's run at 30 Just as info, looks like it ends up taking an Orlando - JAX to near Augusta GA track by 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, dbullsfan said: I'm just an amateur but I think these most recent shifts to the east are just corrections to the coastal bobble by Irma to avoid the coast. I don't think it necessarily is starting a northern track as it is just going to ride the coast. The models however will bounce back and forth as she wobbles back and forth. Shifts like these are the reason why there's an uncertainty cone. An east correction is certainly possible. If the real move north happens at a slightly sharper angle than expected, that would have implications in South Florida. A devastating impact on the eastern coast is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090900&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=0https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090818&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=124.66666412353516Much stronger also...Thanks for the link brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, TexasWeatherman said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100 I've been refreshing these every 5 minutes for the last hour and a half. Thank you so much. That's amazing resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, lj0109 said: Just as info, looks like it ends up taking an Orlando - JAX to near Augusta GA track by 72 So far we have UKMET/GGEM into Fort Myers...GFS east. I think we know where the Euro is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Much stronger also... Thanks for the link brother. Actually, I misread the difference. It is N, not NE of the position, and more like 30-40 miles, not 50-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma Infrared (animated if you click the link) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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