Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: 895mb this size storm is 200mph winds GFS verbatim drops 12.4mb from 36-42 hours as it approaches for peninsula landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Its crazy how the GFS has consistently been so far east vs other guidance aside from a run or two here or there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I was looking at maps and it seems like a landfall more toward the western part of the Everglades National Park would be the best case in a range of bad options, but it's complicated with the current/expected size of this eyewall. We're really talking about trying to thread the needle between big disaster and mega disaster. If this needs to go to banter I apologize, but I know the Everglades are beyond fragile at this point as an ecosystem. What would this do to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 One little discussed item: the storm will be slowing down during its trek up the Gulf Coast, as forecasts now show about a 12 mph forward speed (from just before landfall to maybe Tampa; it speeds up after that) vs. the 16 mph speed the models were indicating a day or two ago. That will make the horrible conditions last a bit longer everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I was looking at maps and it seems like a landfall more toward the western part of the Everglades National Park would be the best case in a range of bad options, but it's complicated with the current/expected size of this eyewall. We're really talking about trying to thread the needle between big disaster and mega disaster. An east correction is still possible at this juncture too, enough to put I-95 back under the gun for the really bad conditions and huge surge. I think we now just have to watch for where the real north turn starts. The problem with a South FL landfall is that there's a very narrow area where landfall would only be very bad instead of catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If this needs to go to banter I apologize, but I know the Everglades are beyond fragile at this point as an ecosystem. What would this do to them? It's a marshy landscape that would be prepared for a hurricane impact as much as anywhere I guess, but it would be a horrible impact for sure. But it's this vs an eyewall impact over Fort Myers/Sarasota or Miami to Palm Beach, with a now large eye due to the recent ERC. So it's pick the poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It is really to soon if that little north job is real or noise. A couple hours need to pass before making a conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If this needs to go to banter I apologize, but I know the Everglades are beyond fragile at this point as an ecosystem. What would this do to them? Probably nothing..the vegetation and animal life there has mostly evolved to withstand hurricanes and storm force winds. There have been thousands of these events in the geological/ecological history of the Everglades. As someone pointed out, most palm trees lose their tops at 90-100mph but are not uprooted until 140mph+ winds are reached...mangroves are also squat in design which makes them able to survive hurricane conditions. There might be some changes in salinity/water temperature from some of the flooding, but I'd doubt it would wreak ecological disaster on the Everglades. The biggest ecological concern from events like Harvey and Irma is probably the sheer amount of waste that is added to landfills, as well as the release of hazardous wastes and the inability to separate recyclables and organics from non-recyclables. Hurricanes leave an incredible amount of debris in their wake, as well as toxic molds and chemicals/sewage, and this has to be managed/cleared away somehow, oftentimes with environmental regulations suspended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, winterymix said: It is really to soon if that little north job is real or noise. A couple hours need to pass before making a conclusion. It looks like it went W-NW the last couple of frames. Almost like it repositioned itself back far enough from land and continued back on its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Algae blooms are going to be terrible after the storm with all of the extra runoff. Something else to think about. They've already had a lot of problems with them the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just reviewing the 12z Euro...and, unless Irma takes a hard left turn over the next few hours, it'll be off by quite a bit to the south by 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like it went W-NW the last couple of frames. Almost like it repositioned itself back far enough from land and continued back on its track That northern coast of Cuba projects WNW geographically, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Irma continue to hug the coast for many hours to come before it turns more toward the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like it went W-NW the last couple of frames. Almost like it repositioned itself back far enough from land and continued back on its track Obvious limits to our knowledge. The NHC says that the Atlantic ridge asserted its lf enough to bring Irma to the Cuban coast but do the meteorologists know why the big ridge made that geometric extension to the west? No scientist would say that hurricanes are living beings but these cyclones sometimes give the impression of having self-protective instincts. Of course, some storms seem to do the opposite and fall apart quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Just reviewing the 12z Euro...and, unless Irma takes a hard left turn over the next few hours, it'll be off by quite a bit to the south by 7am. Nah. Looks on track. High res Euro is actually just offshore at 12z Saturday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Just reviewing the 12z Euro...and, unless Irma takes a hard left turn over the next few hours, it'll be off by quite a bit to the south by 7am. Can you clarify this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It looks like it went W-NW the last couple of frames. Almost like it repositioned itself back far enough from land and continued back on its trackThe wobbles are interesting and like somebody said they can be hallucinations. We have seen wobbles north and south over the last couple hours. You have a meteorologist designation- can a hurricane really orient to the water to some degree independent of the overall steering currents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: Obvious limits to our knowledge. The NHC says that the Atlantic ridge asserted its lf enough to bring Irma to the Cuban coast but do the meteorologists know why the big ridge made that geometric extension to the west? No scientist would say that hurricanes are living beings but these cyclones sometimes give the impression of having self-protective instincts. Of course, some storms seem to do the opposite and fall apart quickly. Latent heat pump and subsidence around the hurricane (and into the adjacent ridge) can strengthen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: Nah. Looks on track. High res Euro is actually just offshore at 12z Saturday as well. Hmmm...thanks...might be something a bit off with the graphics then from my image posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Core is definitely not looking as healthy. Looks like land interaction is beginning to affect Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Latent heat pump and subsidence around the hurricane (and into the adjacent ridge) can strengthen it. Katia may have impacted the upper level pattern over the SE U.S somewhat as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Latent heat pump and subsidence around the hurricane (and into the adjacent ridge) can strengthen it. Thanks, now I know why I'm on here after midnight. This is a scientific community of people fascinated with this huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If this needs to go to banter I apologize, but I know the Everglades are beyond fragile at this point as an ecosystem. What would this do to them? Not directly related, but interesting fact; a lot of the invasive Burmese Pythons that have been breeding in the Everglades are thought to have originated from a reptile breeding facility that was hit by Hurricane Andrew. So hopefully no zoos with anything that could survive in Florida will be hit too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Katia may have impacted the upper level pattern over the SE U.S somewhat as well Yeah, that's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Does anyone know what causes a wobble. Is there a particular reason why a Hurricane will wobble left or right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, seether said: The simulated IR image from this morning's Euro run seemingly would have the core solidly over Cuba....but Quincy kindly posted a higher res. pressure map, which indicates otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its crazy how the GFS has consistently been so far east vs other guidance aside from a run or two here or there Despite the consistency of the Euro on track the GFS could very well have sniffed out an earlier or stronger trough interaction and sharp N/NW turn. Pure amateur speculation but the blind squirrel theory is always in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Does anyone know what causes a wobble. Is there a particular reason why a Hurricane will wobble left or right. A met posted on here a few days ago something that really cleared this up for me. The motion path of hurricanes is trochoidal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid Think of taking a top that is moving forward and then lightly blowing on one side of it in the same direction as its rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Turned West an hour ago, and in last 5 minutes turning North. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 Truly spectacular to watch and makes us all realize how little we truly understand. This is a learning opportunity for all of us, and how amazing is it that we have the new GOES-16 imagery to watch this unfold. We would not have picked up on these nuances without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma looks like she's taking a bit of a hit on the latest IR loop from land interaction with Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Not sure if the RGEM is remotely useful but it sure has a track more like the Euro and hurricane models into Fort Myers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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