olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Remember this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The Keys are screwed regardless. Massive surge will come from the north or south if the center goes nearby. Their only chance is a much weaker storm or much further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Watch the loops of Sandy taking a left turn into NJ/NY, it almost looks like a 45° turn. That monster had completely different dynamics than this girl but yeah that was a fascinating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Great radar link encapsulating the whole eye as it hugs the coast http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 New GFS at 24 shows the position of Irma is slightly east...(ie slower) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 at 30 is making the turn about 20 mi. further east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: New GFS at 24 shows the position of Irma is slightly east...(ie slower) First east trend since the 12z Euro bombshell on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It's between the 18z and the 12z GFS, but closer to 18z. Probably noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 at 30 is making the turn about 20 mi. further east....Was wondering if this would end up happening with the slow down in forward motion tonight. The ECMWF is going to be a "back breaker" tonight. The west trend is going to end with the developing weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Flooding rainfall threat for the keys and south Florida is now serious imo. All the basic elements are being met: expansion in size, increased duration (slowdown) and large area of intense convection. And then add to this that there will be a prolonged period of onshore flow interacting with an UL trough well out ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: New GFS at 24 shows the position of Irma is slightly east...(ie slower) 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: at 30 is making the turn about 20 mi. further east.... Makes sense given the last few days of ensemble runs. The slower guidance tended to make the turn and end up farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 00z GFS 0HR-48HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Amped said: It's between the 18z and the 12z GFS, but closer to 18z. Probably noise. Agreed, noise. Tomorrow night will really be key to see when it makes the sharp right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 At 42 I'd estimate about a 30 mile NE position diff. vs. 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GFS 42 hour position: 15-20 miles northeast of that from the 18z run. Central pressure: 893 mb (29 mb drop in 12 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: New GFS at 24 shows the position of Irma is slightly east...(ie slower) Thank, LEK...WRT understanding the tropics, you are among the best in this online community. I've been to Ft. Meyers. It seems that all buildings there will have, at a minimum, first floor inundation. It seems that all the shoreline communities of SW FL are caught inb the crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: 00z GFS 0HR-48HR Of note is the deepening just prior to LF in SW FL. Scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Lake Okeechobee is another danger area given the dikes and evacuations ordered nearby. That can cause a lot of flooding if the levees fail, to some populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yikes, it's amazing how this bombs out once is leaves the coastline of cuba on the GFS. If a hurricane this size were to be sub 900mb, we could literally be witnessing the most intense hurricane in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GOES 16 meso sector is showing that Irma has begun to parallel the coast over the past 30 minutes to hour. If that holds, then the new 00z GFS is handling it real well. This will also result in less disruption to the core. We will have to watch and see if this becomes a longer term trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: 00z GFS 0HR-48HR MIA looks to get into 100mph winds on that loop..verbatium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Turned West an hour ago, and in last 5 minutes turning North. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The eye of Irma will be over some part of Florida for over 24 hours. GFS has Irma crossing the keys at hour 42 any finally leaving Florida by hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, HKY_WX said: Yikes, it's amazing how this bombs out once is leaves the coastline of cuba on the GFS. If a hurricane this size were to be sub 900mb, we could literally be witnessing the most intense hurricane in history. It's bath water and very favorable atmospheric conditions. If the inner core isn't seriously disrupted by the Cuba interaction tonight, it should ramp back up fast once clear of the island. It would still be devastating, but maybe we can move back to a track a little east of the west coast cities, and far enough west of MIA-PBI to avoid catastrophe there. It's a very narrow stripe, but it's something to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: Turned West an hour ago, and in last 5 minutes turning north. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 Was going due south a couple hours ago so it maybe a wobbling quite a bit, making for a lot of Hallucination-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yikes, it's amazing how this bombs out once is leaves the coastline of cuba on the GFS. If a hurricane this size were to be sub 900mb, we could literally be witnessing the most intense hurricane in history. Not that it wouldn't intensify over the straits, just be wary of the GFS's intensification. RI could occur but the GFS has been awful on sub 900 mb cyclone intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Amped said: It's between the 18z and the 12z GFS, but closer to 18z. Probably noise. That "noise" is a fairly significant shift at this point. Another 15-30 mile shift west could put Miami in the western eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Not that it wouldn't intensify over the straits, just be wary of the GFS's intensification. RI could occur but the GFS has been awful on sub 900 mb cyclone intensity. I give it credence mainly b/c most other guidance have been showing this peaking after leaving the Cuba coastline for days. Given the TCHP in the Keys area and the environment aloft, can't rule it out. In fact it's probably likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 East shift on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's bath water and very favorable atmospheric conditions. If the inner core isn't seriously disrupted by the Cuba interaction tonight, it should ramp back up fast once clear of the island. It would still be devastating, but maybe we can move back to a track a little east of the west coast cities, and far enough west of MIA-PBI to avoid catastrophe there. It's a very narrow stripe, but it's something to hope for. I was looking at maps and it seems like a landfall more toward the western part of the Everglades National Park would be the best case in a range of bad options, but it's complicated with the current/expected size of this eyewall. We're really talking about trying to thread the needle between big disaster and mega disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.