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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:
4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:
I always forget about this site. Very useful. Thanks for the post. So far everything is lining up. 
 

Yep...anyone who thinks she is just going to continue barreling into Cuba lacks the proper respect for the current state of modeling. We can do pretty good six hours out with large scale features...

Doesnt have to "barrel" into Cuba. Another 20+- miles will do it. And as u said, models take her NW which at that trajectory keeps her core over land IF the last wobble is realized and she bumps another 20+- miles W.

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dunno guys. I'm not a pro but physics and warm core/TC meteo theory usually wins in the end. We can sit here all night and discuss the reasons we think Irma wont deteriorate much over land but I am going to play Devil's Advocate and assure you she will certainly lose a great deal of steam the longer she sits over hilly N Cuba. As sure as the Titanic sank, physics and land interaction will win outright. Cut her source of fuel, add topography, keep decreasing her speed with each model run, and again, I assure you, she will lose quite a bit of her punch....it is inevitable if her core moves over land. Not trying to cause a fight, just stating the facts. Cut the fuel source and she's gonna weaken. Just a matter of how long she sits over land and IF she flares up as she passes the Florida Straits. 

Ralph, you seem to be missing the point here.  The core is shrinking and the cloud tops cooling.  She will not spend much time at all over land and that part of Cuba is flat.  Trust the models and the track.  

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Doesnt have to "barrel" into Cuba. Another 20+- miles will do it. And as u said, models take her NW which at that trajectory keeps her core over land IF the last wobble is realized and she bumps another 20+- miles W.

20 miles is significant. How wide is the whole island, like 50 miles?

I don't see it happening when every reliable piece of guidance has it running up the coast.
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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

HRRR domain on Weatherbell shows very northern coast of Cuba using SE US regional depiction. There's also a 500 Vort panel to use and you can see the northern edge of the CoC at the bottom of screen. Little easier to see on RAP and it shows something very similar. It's at the very end of each model domain, but it's there. I'm in full agreement with LEK. As long as the core isn't ravaged, this should be able to rebound pretty well within Straits waters. 

I'm watching the loop https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/CARIBBEAN/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_car_jet:&runTime=2017090900&plotName=sfcp_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR_CAR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full and according to this, the northern component needs to begin about now for this to verify. 

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huronicane

huronicane

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm staring at the center slowing down on water vapor, sure seems to be starting NW.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 

It does seem to be beginning its turn - really interesting to see these satellite images coming in every minute, definitely changes the way we monitor TC motion.

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LovintheWhiteFluff

LovintheWhiteFluff

Posted
Posted

Maybe I'm missing something, but I see no part of the eye on the mainland. It's pretty much in the exact position the Euro said it would be at this long/lat

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170909-0300z.html

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

 

 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

go do something else for 90 min and come back.  it's way more healthy.  the wobble watching has got yall twisted.

There's a big difference between wobble watching and confirming the forecasted turn NW. This is a pivotal moment for the track of the storm. Been waiting to see what it does when interacting with Cuba for three days. I get your point, but I'm trying to confirm hires modeling to real time.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, huronicane said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 

It does seem to be beginning its turn - really interesting to see these satellite images coming in every minute, definitely changes the way we monitor TC motion.

Absolutely it does. I would argue that its movement has temporarily stalled if not begun to shift slightly northward. 

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

Basically kind of stalled right now on my estimation looking at GOES imagery.  Wobbled WSW and is now just camping out on the coast.  

I've always noticed that sort of cyclonic wobble/stall as a characteristic of turning. Matthew being the most recent example. But what do I know.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, huronicane said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100 

It does seem to be beginning its turn - really interesting to see these satellite images coming in every minute, definitely changes the way we monitor TC motion.

It is acquiring a northerly component...at least at upper levels (IR) over the last 20 min, the radar intervals are such that it isn't pronounced or depicted....also may be a slight tilt to the core, which happens near a coast sometimes...

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Maybe I'm missing something, but I see no part of the eye on the mainland. It's pretty much in the exact position the Euro said it would be at this long/lat

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170909-0300z.html

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

 

 

I think it's just offshore. It's in very weak steering currents. What could be happening is the law of inertia; without any outside forces acting, a body in motion tends to stay in motion. Now the friction of land may be interacting with her, and it's caused a stall and turn? A theory, I'm not sure.
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PressureDrop2017

PressureDrop2017

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Blazinator said:

Cuba topo map, for the curious. She's gonna have some trouble if the NW turn doesn't happen soon.

Cuba-Topography-Map.jpg

Is there a "compressive" effect on the left-front quadrant of the cyclone as it runs up against those central Cuban mountain ridges, when the elevation is only ~200 to 400 meters? The weakening due to land-interaction in this situation is: because of higher friction, higher pressure, or lower temperature over this narrow land-mass featuring small mountains?

That is both an academic question, to educate the uninitiated (such as me), and a practical question about how the closer-than-expected brush with Cuba is likely to affect the Irma track and intensity

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

Is there a "compressive" effect on the left-front quadrant of the cyclone as it runs up against those central Cuban mountain ridges, when the elevation is only ~200 to 400 meters? The weakening due to land-interaction in this situation is: because of higher friction, higher pressure, or lower temperature over this narrow land-mass featuring small mountains?

That is both an academic question, to educated the uninitiated (such as me), and a practical question about how the closer-than-expected brush with Cuba is likely to affect the Irma track and intensity

Not seeing the weakening.  The eye is contracting and the cloud tops cooling it appears.  

 

 

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted 
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward on the east
coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west
coast of Florida to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast
of Florida to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward on the west coast
of Florida to Suwanee River.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to Fernandina Beach and on the west coast of Florida to
Indian Pass.

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the
province of Matanzas to a Hurricane Warning.  A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad
de la Habana.  The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for
Guantanamo have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County line
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Anclote River to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de
la Habana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 77.7 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma
will move near the north coast of Cuba through Saturday, near the
Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is once again a category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft
Anclote River to Suwannee River...3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are still occurring over portions of the
central Bahamas, as well as Ragged Island.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys
Saturday night and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Jamaica...1 to 2 inches
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches
The Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible from Saturday midday into
Sunday across central and south Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

        

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is once again a category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

Not seeing the weakening.  The eye is contracting and the cloud tops cooling it appears.  

 

 

As long as that core can remain at least 1/2 over water Irma likely will not weaken. Last 10 mins of satellite loops confirm she hit a wall along the N Cuba coast. Next stop, jet fuel waters of the Florida Strait.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is once again a category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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