OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 1:57 AM, skagen00 said: Out of pure curiosity (and I have been lurking for hundreds of pages from the last thread) what would we say is the most likely reason to explain why the models have repeatedly shifted reliably westward for the past couple of days? What influence was the biggest surprise to the models? Expand Much of the uncertainty has been tied to the ridge/trof combo across North America. Now the focus is shifting towards the specific heights at the base of that trof across the Southeast. Higher heights than modeled would want to prolong the westward motion, lower heights than modeled would suggest a faster turn. As an aside, the ensemble members that tracked farther south of the mean were the ones more likely to prolong westward movement and make landfall on the west coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The eye is crossing the barrier islands near Cayo Cruz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It's going to be interesting tonight especially in the next couple hours. We're in a significant stage now seeing how this evolves later for Florida. Waiting for the first sign of it north shifting. It looks like it will start to ride up the coast nw soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Only about 1/3 of the eye has crossed...and still on NHC track even after that wobble WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 1:48 AM, AcePuppy said: Latest IR Expand Notice the northward movement of the clouds off of western Cuba. This appears to be part of the steering motion that will kick Irma toward the FL Keys and FL West Coast. It's the timing of the kick that is causing consternation on this board. With that in mind, I believe we may see the eyewall scrape along the Cuban coast for the next 1-3 hours, maybe even with a brief landfall of textbook definition, before this thing veers back out into warm water of the Florida Strait. (I am no meteorologist, just observing possible signs on Sat/IR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:10 AM, senc30 said: If that NW movement starts in the next 2-3 hours, wouldn't that be about 10-12 hours sooner then modeled? I'm asking because maybe I'm looking at things wrong but it seems like the NW turn wasn't supposed to happen until about noon tomorrow. Expand No it would have to turn nw very soon or it would end up crossing Cuba which no model showed. Its the sharp north turn that happens tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 A point to make about potential impacts Cuba will have. If this was a small system brushing up against the coast of a continent, you'd have roughly half the system deprived of TCHP. However, Irma is brushing up against an island (a large one, I admit) and it's large circulation extents to the south of Cuba, (which has the highest TCHP in the Atlantic basin. So there is even more of a negating effect, than otherwise would be ...so to summarize...Irma is/was just starting to intensify, is brushing/slightly entering the Cuban coast (relatively low terrain), has 80%+ of her circulation over bath water, (and super bath water to the south of Cuba), and should have a modest residual time over/adjacent to land (12-18 hrs.) I'd expect a 20mph diminishment of wind and a 20mb rise upon exiting/lifting from the N. Cuban coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Didn't see anyone post this but we definitely, definitely have a category 5 at landfall and/or at the 11pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This is not going have any any northern component for some time. The ULL is still in Arkansas. This should make landfall in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:18 AM, geddyweather said: Notice the northward movement of the clouds off of western Cuba. This appears to be part of the steering motion that will kick Irma toward the FL Keys and FL West Coast. It's the timing of the kick that is causing consternation on this board. With that in mind, I believe we may see the eyewall scrape along the Cuban coast for the next 1-3 hours, maybe even with a brief landfall of textbook definition, before this thing veers back out into warm water of the Florida Strait. (I am no meteorologist, just observing possible signs on Sat/IR) Expand That is just anticyclonic outflow from Irma itself. The larger steering flow if farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:20 AM, LakeEffectKing said: A point to make about potential impacts Cuba will have. If this was a small system brushing up against the coast of a continent, you'd have roughly half the system deprived of TCHP. However, Irma is brushing up against an island (a large one, I admit) and it's large circulation extents to the south of Cuba, (which has the highest TCHP in the Atlantic basin. So there is even more of a negating effect, than otherwise would be ...so to summarize...Irma is/was just starting to intensify, is brushing/slightly entering the Cuban coast (relatively low terrain), has 80%+ of her circulation over bath water, (and super bath water to the south of Cuba), and should have a modest residual time over/adjacent to land (12-18 hrs.) I'd expect a 20mph diminishment of wind and a 20mb rise upon exiting/lifting from the N. Cuban coast. Expand I'd been saying around 25 mph...that sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:19 AM, Stormlover74 said: No it would have to turn nw very soon or it would end up crossing Cuba which no model showed. Its the sharp north turn that happens tomorrow Expand Thank you for the answer! I was going on what the models were showing and it just looked to me that a wnw movement would continue until around noon tomorrow then a NW to N after that. Again thanks for getting back to me with an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:20 AM, LakeEffectKing said: A point to make about potential impacts Cuba will have. If this was a small system brushing up against the coast of a continent, you'd have roughly half the system deprived of TCHP. However, Irma is brushing up against an island (a large one, I admit) and it's large circulation extents to the south of Cuba, (which has the highest TCHP in the Atlantic basin. So there is even more of a negating effect, than otherwise would be ...so to summarize...Irma is/was just starting to intensify, is brushing/slightly entering the Cuban coast (relatively low terrain), has 80%+ of her circulation over bath water, (and super bath water to the south of Cuba), and should have a modest residual time over/adjacent to land (12-18 hrs.) I'd expect a 20mph diminishment of wind and a 20mb rise upon exiting/lifting from the N. Cuban coast. Expand What would you expect in an increase in winds as it comes off Cuba before it makes landfall into the Keys/SW Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Meso models like the HRRR and RAP are useful for short term trends in the cyclone (Do not pay attention to intensity). Both models are right on top of each other with track and the turn should be commencing right about now which according to radar and satellite, that seems to be the case. Both runs take the CoC parallel to the northern coast with the eye pretty much bisecting the coastline. This is being modeled unbelievably right now and only deviations we should see at this point are wobbles. We might see some minor weakening due to the land interaction, but it's unanimous that a strong core, once off the coast, will assist in Irma's ability to strengthen with steady pressure falls and develop a deep convective ring around the CoC. Whether or not the wind speeds adjust quick enough to get the storm back to a Cat 5 are unknown, but they will have the ability. If not, high end Cat 4 is well within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:20 AM, LakeEffectKing said: A point to make about potential impacts Cuba will have. If this was a small system brushing up against the coast of a continent, you'd have roughly half the system deprived of TCHP. However, Irma is brushing up against an island (a large one, I admit) and it's large circulation extents to the south of Cuba, (which has the highest TCHP in the Atlantic basin. So there is even more of a negating effect, than otherwise would be ...so to summarize...Irma is/was just starting to intensify, is brushing/slightly entering the Cuban coast (relatively low terrain), has 80%+ of her circulation over bath water, (and super bath water to the south of Cuba), and should have a modest residual time over/adjacent to land (12-18 hrs.) I'd expect a 20mph diminishment of wind and a 20mb rise upon exiting/lifting from the N. Cuban coast. Expand That's about what I was thinking (loss of intensity wise), but didn't want to say. Certainly a lot more credibility coming from you. If ever there were a case where prolonged land interaction doesn't cause massive weakening, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Cuba topo map, for the curious. She's gonna have some trouble if the NW turn doesn't happen soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:26 AM, AcePuppy said: What would you expect in an increase in winds as it comes off Cuba before it makes landfall into the Keys/SW Florida? Expand My earlier thinking (when I created my map) was a robust deepening, but little in the way of max wind increases. That has changed, and I think the NHC is about right with 160 just prior to LF in the Keys....maybe a touch higher.... ...thoughts as of now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:12 AM, Crazy4Wx said: Looking at Cuban radar is looks like she is turning NW. Right on NHC track. Man...what a forecast.There has been no turn yet. All recon fixes have had due west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:27 AM, MillvilleWx said: Meso models like the HRRR and RAP are useful for short term trends in the cyclone (Do not pay attention to intensity). Both models are right on top of each other with track and the turn should be commencing right about now which according to radar and satellite, that seems to be the case. Both runs take the CoC parallel to the northern coast with the eye pretty much bisecting the coastline. This is being modeled unbelievably right now and only deviations we should see at this point are wobbles. We might see some minor weakening due to the land interaction, but it's unanimous that a strong core, once off the coast, will assist in Irma's ability to strengthen with steady pressure falls and develop a deep convective ring around the CoC. Whether or not the wind speeds adjust quick enough to get the storm back to a Cat 5 are unknown, but they will have the ability. If not, high end Cat 4 is well within reason. Expand What kind of interpolation are you using? Location of Irma is outside of HRRR's domain, at least on TT it is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Do we have a tropical airmass down there? 10pm Key West 88F Dp 79F. Not great sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:31 AM, SN_Lover said: What kind of interpolation are you using? Location of Irma is outside of HRRR's domain, at least on TT it is..... Expand https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/CARIBBEAN/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:31 AM, SN_Lover said: What kind of interpolation are you using? Location of Irma is outside of HRRR's domain, at least on TT it is..... Expand HRRR domain on Weatherbell shows very northern coast of Cuba using SE US regional depiction. There's also a 500 Vort panel to use and you can see the northern edge of the CoC at the bottom of screen. Little easier to see on RAP and it shows something very similar. It's at the very end of each model domain, but it's there. I'm in full agreement with LEK. As long as the core isn't ravaged, this should be able to rebound pretty well within Straits waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:34 AM, OceanStWx said: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/CARIBBEAN/ Expand I always forget about this site. Very useful. Thanks for the post. So far everything is lining up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Appears landfall is imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 2:37 AM, MillvilleWx said: I always forget about this site. Very useful. Thanks for the post. So far everything is lining up. Yep...anyone who thinks she is just going to continue barreling into Cuba lacks the proper respect for the current state of modeling. We can do pretty good six hours out with large scale features... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The 3km NAM track and wind depictions don't seem all that bad. A fairly widespread area progged to experience winds over 100 mph, including Miami. Courtesy WeatherBELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 HRRR basically rides this NW all the way up the Cuban coast. Then the north turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty incredible if it starts to wobble northerly soon along the coast. It'll start at the best or should say worst timing/location for it to be unscathed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like the Cuban coastline is bisecting the center of the eye now on radar. Does not look like any turn to the WNW or NW is taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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