Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[Mountain_Patch]

I don't even know where you see this version: 

 

[Buddy1987]

Guys, some people need to chill with the whole the eye is already being affected, it has already made landfall in Cuba, etc. If we go over some simple terminology for Cuba's northern coastline, you will see such terms as cay (a low bank or reef of coral, rock, or sand), reef (a ridge of jagged rock, coral, or sand just above or below the surface of the sea) and bay (a broad inlet of the sea where the land curves inward). With all this in mind, NHC has been pretty solid in showing the hurricane traversing this area. There is no disagreeing in this instance the northern most coast of Cuba is comprised of all these things that have been mentioned. It is a large archipelago (a group of islands or a sea or stretch of water containing many islands) on the northern skirt. So long as it does not journey far west into Cuba, which even at that point, it would continue into the region they refer to as the Bay of Jiguey, the weakening should be kept to a minimum. If it literally scrapes the whole coast, it will continue up toward Cayo Romano, where it will then set its eyes for the Florida Straits. Could there be some slight weakening as it starts to brush up against the mainland of Cuba, possibly, however in my opinion unlikely. You have to go to the southeastern portion of the nation or in central Cuba, closer to Esmeralda, in order to run into larger mountainous regions. Let's see how it plays out before we go calling the storm off and all kinds of ridiculous rhetoric being thrown out there. 

[dan11295]

You have to wonder how long the models will continue to move west. Seems like the models delayed the N turn by another 6 hours. much further W Irma is going straight to the panhandle (probably a somewhat weaker storm at landfall if that happens).

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time?

No.

[mappy]

 

 

Psst, there's a thread for Jose

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Irma is pretty much pick your poison, the largest metro area of Florida dodges a bullet while the second largest metro area takes one. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

west again

That's some really bad news for the west coast. It could also be really bad for Tampa Bay-as the eye goes past them, winds switch to west and build water into the bay. It also has major hurricane conditions for Sarasota, Ft Myers, etc. Plenty of populated areas here. One area's benefit (MIA to PBI) is that area's curse. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You have to wonder how long the models will continue to move west. Seems like the models delayed the N turn by another 6 hours. much further W Irma is going straight to the panhandle (probably a somewhat weaker storm at landfall if that happens).

They're playing catchup heavily right now it seems.  When thats occurring with a system you can sometimes see them continue to do so even up until the event is ongoing and you're within 6 hours of a landfall.

[sctvman]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Irma is pretty much pick your poison, the largest metro area of Florida dodges a bullet while the second largest metro area takes one. 

And Tampa/St. Pete is as vulnerable a metro area as Miami, maybe more with hurricane surge. 

[Superstorm93]

00z best track 

We'll see if this holds. 

AL, 11, 2017090900,   , BEST,   0, 221N,  772W, 140,  924 

[audioguy3107]

Looking at the radar and satellite loops, it's amazing (and great) for the Miami metro that Irma keeps heading just south of WNW......I'd venture to say that unless Irma gets more of a northern component to her movement, she's gonna spend way too much time over Cuba, coastline or not.  I'd be surprised if the inner core is ever able to recover....we've seen this before.

[rdcrds4]

8 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

@Sophisticated Skeptic

Any reason for thinking this will miss Florida or are you just wishcasting? Is there any consensus on Irma making landfall at the panhandle? Because I'm not seeing that.

 

 

it is called a trend. This has trended west every new run. There are even a few model runs that show a panhandle hit but they're ahead of these other models. but i am not sure how the upper levels work to know if it can go that far.

[Bostonseminole]

14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys, some people need to chill with the whole the eye is already being affected, it has already made landfall in Cuba, etc. If we go over some simple terminology for Cuba's northern coastline, you will see such terms as cay (a low bank or reef of coral, rock, or sand), reef (a ridge of jagged rock, coral, or sand just above or below the surface of the sea) and bay (a broad inlet of the sea where the land curves inward). With all this in mind, NHC has been pretty solid in showing the hurricane traversing this area. There is no disagreeing in this instance the northern most coast of Cuba is comprised of all these things that have been mentioned. It is a large archipelago (a group of islands or a sea or stretch of water containing many islands) on the northern skirt. So long as it does not journey far west into Cuba, which even at that point, it would continue into the region they refer to as the Bay of Jiguey, the weakening should be kept to a minimum. If it literally scrapes the whole coast, it will continue up toward Cayo Romano, where it will then set its eyes for the Florida Straits. Could there be some slight weakening as it starts to brush up against the mainland of Cuba, possibly, however in my opinion unlikely. You have to go to the southeastern portion of the nation or in central Cuba, closer to Esmeralda, in order to run into larger mountainous regions. Let's see how it plays out before we go calling the storm off and all kinds of ridiculous rhetoric being thrown out there. 

Good post Buddy, it might inhibit rapid strengthening that otherwise would be happening right now, best hope is that it exists cuba and we get a prolong ERC that weakens it coming up the coast.

[Coopdog]

26 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

There are several different studies out there that this land interaction could also force wind speeds higher. We won't know until later what happens next.

Has there ever been a hurricane cat 3 or stronger that interacts with land such as Cuba, meaning not one of the smaller islands, that has emerged from the land contact and strengthened? I am aware of small hurricanes or tropical storms that have interacted with land masses and then emerged later to become strong hurricanes.

[superjames1992]

24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

west again

Yikes.  I'm starting to get nervous up here in the panhandle...  Some of those tracks are offshore...  Really bad for Tampa Bay, too

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, rdcrds4 said:

huh? you lost me

His point was that the models initialized Irma as a Category 5 hurricane with 140 knot (160 mph) winds.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

Looking at the radar and satellite loops, it's amazing (and great) for the Miami metro that Irma keeps heading just south of WNW......I'd venture to say that unless Irma gets more of a northern component to her movement, she's gonna spend way too much time over Cuba, coastline or not.  I'd be surprised if the inner core is ever able to recover....we've seen this before.

The part of Cuba it's going over is flat, every model has it hugging along the coast rather than going straight in, and it will have more time over bath water as well if it keeps going west and has more time before coming into SW FL. 

[wxeyeNH]

The 2 worst cases for Florida...

1)  Irma comes south to north right along the east coast as a Cat 4 or a few miles west .  Huge population centers massive wind damage if in RFQ.

2)  Irma comes south to north right along the west coast as a Cat 4 or a few miles west.  Naples/Fort Myers/Tampa in RFQ with massive tidal surge problems and Keys get slammed.

I don't know which is worse.  Gold Coast has much bigger population but less storm surge.

Last night straight up the middle of the state  or slightly west of that seemed a bit better than tonights possible outcome...

[Superstorm93]

2 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said:

huh? you lost me

This would be a 140 knot (Category 5) storm again if it were to hold until the next update 

[Quincy]

For the record, the 12z Euro progged a 12 hour MSLP rise of 16mb between 00z Sat and 12z Sat. More or less, that model's forecast track has been verifying. Unless Irma cuts deep into Cuba, the models haven't been far off at all. 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Good post Buddy, it might inhibit rapid strengthening that otherwise would be happening right now, best hope is that it exists cuba and we get a prolong ERC that weakens it coming up the coast.

the last thing i expect is this beast weakening, though i do wonder how much impact prolonged landfall would have on a hurricane that hasn't really experienced that yet.  it's hard trying to figure out where the path will end up.  looking at satellite and wv, there's multiple roadblocks ahead, but i could also see why this thing could shift west even some more and go right up into the panhandle.  

it's an intriguing storm to follow.

[NavarreDon]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any word on where Josh (icyclone) is chasing this?

He tweeted from Naples earlier tonight.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, mappy said:

Yes, he is there 

Just saw on Twitter...Naples.  Forgot to look there

[Windspeed]

With all of the focus in a west or east track up the penisnula, we are unfortunately still within a great degree of uncertainty. What if the models are not correctly forecasting a slow down before turn north? A semi-stall does happen before northward motion. A temporary slowdown in forward motion isn't always modeled well into a weakness. That in itself can sell out to a more eastward component. I think this is the agonizing reality that the forecasters at the NHC are stressing over. These model trends west make it easy to lose focus on the SE peninsula, but this track is not yet set in stone. A slow down in forward motion could quickly shift the models more east. I am not saying that will happen, but it HAS happened before. I always fear a quicker turn from a slowdown into a weakness. But usually it is far more east into the Atlantic.

 

 

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

Last three recon fix locations have been due west.

Should see a northerly turn shortly if much of the guidance will be right with it riding the coast.

If not...

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

For the record, the 12z Euro progged a 12 hour MSLP rise of 16mb between 00z Sat and 12z Sat. More or less, that model's forecast track has been verifying. Unless Irma cuts deep into Cuba, the models haven't been far off at all. 

The HMON shows it deeper into Cuba than the other models, probably for over 12 hours.  Given that the HMON is overamped most of the time, it did shed 31 mb while over Cuba, and then regained 28 mb of that before making LF in Ft. Myers.

[Buddy1987]

What kind of shear are we looking at later in the weekend if this thing does decide to head toward the panhandle? Is it pretty pronounced?

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Last three recon fix locations have been due west.

Should see a northerly turn shortly if much of the guidance will be right with it riding the coast.

If not...

Yep, it is running out of room here. Needs to start turning now.

[Hoosier]

Put me in the camp of fairly modest weakening *as long as* the eye scrapes the coast and doesn't move more inland.  I know it has actually been studied that the scrapers weaken more slowly than something farther inland, and it just makes sense intuitively. Also, this is a large storm, and those tend to not be as vulnerable to the core getting ripped apart by minor land encounters.  Now, all this could change if it moves deeper into Cuba.  The bottom line is that it's a bit of a guessing game for the next several hours.

[KPITSnow]

Bottom line, it is going to interact with Cuba. The question is does it fully move onshore, or does the eye scrape the coast. Remember, you might be looking at "landfall" but it could be over a barrier island that isn't going to inhibit the storm at all.