LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Already happening LF is defined as when the center point of the eye crosses the shoreline....that may happen in a few hours (5?)....but it's not "already happening"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Models have been trending it a bit more west each run, If it goes any more west than the 12Z Euro had it will bring the eye entirely ashore which will definitely results in a fair amount of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Also I'd like to see backup of your claim that the eye was "collapsing" on radar earlier.I've been waiting for that...don't think we'll get it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The question isn't whether Irma comes onshore...but how far on shore. If the center stays just off shore and rides the coast then it will lose a little steam but not much, like the HWRF. If the whole eye goes inland then I would look to the HMON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Theoretical max was 26ft for downtown in the Project Phoenix scenario. This was for a 160mph cat 5 on a NNE approach. I've also seen low 30s modeled in county documents for the area around Tampa General on Davis Island. http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf Ouch. That would simply destroy the entire area. Thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The eye will probably cross into Cuba and weaken, maybe down to a Cat 3, but the core should be intact enough for it to take advantage of very warm water near the Keys. It won't be over Cuba too long and it is crossing into a relatively flat part of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I've been waiting for that...don't think we'll get it though. The only thing i can find is a mention of contraction from the earlier ~41 miles to 35 per twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I suppose NHC had to upgrade it based on the data, but some others posted, including a met, the interaction with Cuba should make that upgrade short-lived, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: They've already internally upgraded it to a 5 guys. This arguments moot No it isn't when the Cat 5 prog is for 36 hours from now. It hasn't fully interacted with Cuba yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: That's after it moves back into the Florida Strait, both the weakening estimates and the intensifying thereafter are possibly underestimates in terms of overall magnitude. Just checked and EUro has Irma at 951mb leaving the Cuba coast and dropping back to 927mb before landfall in Naples. Although Euro started too high those numbers might end up verifying. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sea-level-pressure/20170910-0300z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/sea-level-pressure/20170910-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I suppose NHC had to upgrade it based on the data, but some others posted, including a met, the interaction with Cuba should make that upgrade short-lived, no?We could just wait and see what happens instead of trying to guess. Whether it's a 155mph Cat 4 or a 160mph Cat 5, it doesn't matter. Gonna be bad either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: The only thing i can find is a mention of contraction from the earlier ~41 miles to 35 per twitter Contracting eye means strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: We could just wait and see what happens instead of trying to guess. Whether it's a 155mph Cat 4 or a 160mph Cat 5, it doesn't matter. Gonna be bad either way. No argument here. I personally am hoping for a diminished storm for personal, family reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The eye will probably cross into Cuba and weaken, maybe down to a Cat 3, but the core should be intact enough for it to take advantage of very warm water near the Keys. It won't be over Cuba too long and it is crossing into a relatively flat part of the island. I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: I'm aware, but again, I wasn't referring to what is happening now. There are several different studies out there that this land interaction could also force wind speeds higher. We won't know until later what happens next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 One thing for certain is the northern coast of Cuba is going to get pounded by Irma in the next 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think it drops 20-25 mph To put some perspective on this, this is still stronger (not to mention much larger) than Harvey ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This is from NHC, but isn't an official advisory. It's used to initialize the 0Z hurricane-specific models. Because this exists doesn't mean that NHC re-upgrades to Cat 5 this evening, but makes it plausible they do: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/ At 0000 UTC, 09 September 2017, MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.1°N and 77.2°W. The current intensity was 140 kt and the center was moving at 12 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time? We haven't had two Cat 4 hurricanes simultaneously in 160+ years of records I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info There is an evacuation thread. Questions can be answered there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: In the atlantic, have we ever had 2 CAT 5 Hurricanes at the same time? I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here. Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma. I suspect Jose will weaken as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: I think the weakening will be minimal. The IE replaced by OE is currently yielding a stronger storm, and I am also waiting to see whether the frictional deceleration of the SW quadrant aids in precluding a full landfall. Parallel running cyclones tend to feature this effect of asymmetrical wind field due to frictional torque, precluding landfall and often engendering the "dance" we often see around landmasses. I like the NHC's track right now, and think the weakening will be down to only a 4, as the eye skims the coast. i agree. i also think that effect will tug it further west and possibly threaten a larger portion of the west coast of florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: We haven't had two Cat 4 hurricanes simultaneously in 160+ years of records I believe. Igor/Julia in 2010 and two in 1926. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: I don't know but I don't think we'll see that here. Irma is going to start showing signs of interacting with Cuba and Jose is going through cooler waters in the wake of Irma. I suspect Jose will weaken as well. Jose shows no signs of weakening and the 26+˚C isotherm is very deep in that area. Dry air would be the wild card for weakening it currently. Irma, while a monster, was moving fairly quickly through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 If I were in the Naples-Marco area up through Sarasota I would be getting pretty concerned. There will be a lot of damaged mansions in Naples me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Time to get SW FL involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: west again Majority of that guidance just scrapes the coast of Cuba...which won't weaken Irma much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: west again Not good when half of globals were west of all of them at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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