Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 And now an unflagged 142kt SFMR reading, and a 146kt flagged one. NW quadrant by the airforce hurricane hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just heard from a friend of mine from Miami and she confirmed that many people she knows who evacuated went to hotels in Tampa because there were a lot of rooms still available Wednesday and Thursday. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, LSC97wxnut said: Funky eye structure spinning around on GOES-16. Mesovortex? I think it is a remnant of the old eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Random Chaos said: I think it is a remnant of the old eyewall. I think you are right, Irma has had trouble shedding the old eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info I would get out ASAP if I lived in a flood prone area down there, near canals sound like they're flood prone. I would think 10+ foot surge if the eye goes overhead or just west, which is a distinct possibility with the west trend today. The worst surge might be as the eye goes north of them as the wind switches to west and onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info This is the experimental model from NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?inundation#contents Up to 5-9 feet depending on where they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hotair said: I keep hearing tremendous storm surge potential in Tampa but the highest I can find anyone claiming is 10-15 feet. I know that's a lot of water but does that mean zones B and C would be OK? I think the Bayshore/South Tampa is going to be in some danger. A lot of the big house and unfortunately some of the run down college apartments in that area could be in quite a bit of danger with storm surge from the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looking at storm surge maps the west coast of Florida is most prone to storm surge. I keep seeing the forecast of huge storm surge. I guess my question is as long as Irma's eye stays just inland from the west coast isn't all the water driven out by a strong north wind? That keeps storm surge possibility much less? Of course as Irma passes then the west wind rushes in and a storm surge develops. *IF* the west trend continued a bit more and Irma managed to stay just off the west coast then the water is all driven north on the RFQ into inland areas. Irma stays stronger and then as Irma passes the west wind comes in and drives and surge even further. My question is, the exact path of the eye over the west coast makes a huge difference for Naples, Ft Myers and very, very big difference into Tampa Bay, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I would get out ASAP if I lived in a flood prone area down there, near canals sound like they're flood prone. I would think 10+ foot surge if the eye goes overhead or just west, which is a distinct possibility with the west trend today. The worst surge might be as the eye goes north of them as the wind switches to west and onshore. This is my concern. The further west with a right turn forces surge onto the shallow shelf inland. I cannot stress how bad surge would be for these areas. Much worse than Wilma simply due to the amount of funneling of sea level heights in the Florida Straits. Then as the core turns NNW-N, that pushes heights into the SW Florida coastal inlets and harbors. The Keys get overwelmed, but that does not stop the onshore flow of the eyewall. Naples is particularly vulnerable. 12-15 feet seems likely unless Irma trends back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdcrds4 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I really think Tampa is in huge trouble, they are a couple west ticks away from getting slammed directly. All in all this will be a catastrophic storm there's no denying that. The storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous and the entire state will be impacted. Also poor Cuba they're going to have some disasterous impacts as well, tremendous performance by the Ukmet model on this. How can you just blurt out that the storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous until there is something that says it is going to track even more west? you have facts? you know something that we do not know other then your guess? nothing is set in stone till it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, rdcrds4 said: How can you just blurt out that the storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous until there is something that says it is going to track even more west? you have facts? you know something that we do not know other then your guess? nothing is set in stone till it happens. If it travels along the west coast and nails the cities along the coast with the eye, there will be a huge surge given how large and powerful the storm is. That's certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 We all know that there are no "good" options for Florida in this situation. Of all of the realistic possibilities where would Irma have to track to give Florida as a whole the least amount of damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, rdcrds4 said: How can you just blurt out that the storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous until there is something that says it is going to track even more west? you have facts? you know something that we do not know other then your guess? nothing is set in stone till it happens. The west coast is prone to storm surge and several ensembles take it further west plus there's been a consistent west trend with all of the guidance. I'm not saying it will happen but the risk has definitely increased today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Landfall in Cuba seems just about inevitable right now. There is no sign of latitude gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hotair said: I keep hearing tremendous storm surge potential in Tampa but the highest I can find anyone claiming is 10-15 feet. I know that's a lot of water but does that mean zones B and C would be OK? Theoretical max was 26ft for downtown in the Project Phoenix scenario. This was for a 160mph cat 5 on a NNE approach. I've also seen low 30s modeled in county documents for the area around Tampa General on Davis Island. http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: We all know that there are no "good" options for Florida in this situation. Of all of the realistic possibilities where would Irma have to track to give Florida as a whole the least amount of damage? Well, missing the west coast and landfalling in the Big Bend, after that basically going straight up the center (tracking through the Everglades on the south end), but even that idea is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Maybe already been discussed but I just got home from dinner. She's on a pretty good westerly track, may come ashore in Cuba and weaken considerably? Might also move a bit further west adding more relief to Miami area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, OUGrad05 said: Maybe already been discussed but I just got home from dinner. She's on a pretty good westerly track, may come ashore in Cuba and weaken considerably? Might also move a bit further west adding more relief to Miami area? NHC says even if it goes make landfall, it will probably sustain itself since its not going over mountainous terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, bigtenfan said: I said REALISTIC options. It's a 700 mile wide category 5 hurricane. I don't really think there is an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This storm is about to spend about 24 hours with the center or part of the eye over land and strengthen 5mph? I respect NHC, but this is NOT HAPPENING. Irma will weaken due to interaction with land. Feel free to make your own guesses on how much. Quote INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The word you used now is IF the words you used in that other post was will. There is a huge difference in IF and will.He didn't say that at all, someone else did. Please be aware of you are posting too before getting worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 unflagged 142 knot SFMR, not sure anyone noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It is currently right on track for the forecast points. Half of that eye is going to come on shore as it makes the NW turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Landfall in Cuba seems just about inevitable right now. There is no sign of latitude gain. Already happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Amped said: This storm is about to spend about 24 hours with the center or part of the eye over land and strengthen 5mph? I respect NHC, but this is NOT HAPPENING. Irma will weaken due to interaction with land. Feel free to make your own guesses on how much. They're upgrading it shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Amped said: This storm is about to spend about 24 hours with the center or part of the eye over land and strengthen 5mph? I respect NHC, but this is NOT HAPPENING. Irma will weaken due to interaction with land. Feel free to make your own guesses on how much. Why do you doubt the NHC's outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: This storm is about to spend about 24 hours with the center or part of the eye over land and strengthen 5mph? I respect NHC, but this is NOT HAPPENING. Irma will weaken due to interaction with land. Feel free to make your own guesses on how much. That's after it moves back into the Florida Strait, both the weakening estimates and the intensifying thereafter are possibly underestimates in terms of overall magnitude. Also I'd like to see backup of your claim that the eye was "collapsing" on radar earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 unflagged 142 knot SFMR, not sure anyone noted. It has been mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: This storm is about to spend about 24 hours with the center or part of the eye over land and strengthen 5mph? I respect NHC, but this is NOT HAPPENING. Irma will weaken due to interaction with land. Feel free to make your own guesses on how much. I think it drops 20-25 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: That's after it moves back into the Florida Strait, both the weakening estimates and the intensifying thereafter are possibly underestimates in terms of overall magnitude. They've already internally upgraded it to a 5 guys. This arguments moot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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